keysersoze123
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Everything posted by keysersoze123
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https://deadline.com/2024/03/alamo-drafthouse-cinema-up-for-sale-1235871003/ I hope the unique experience of drafthouse does not go away and they become part of say AMC or Cinemark.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
At MTC1 Zilla is at 122493/649030 2195879.25. Definitely finishing closer to upper end of my prediction. Let us see where things are in the evening. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
One call out I would give is one has to be careful extrapolating without walkups as this is not a normal thursday with Friday being off for many. Unless its for a similar release date, extrapolation without capturing walkups could be off. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Damn it. That was terrible. Updated to 150-165. Ballpark range. Since tomorrow is Quasi Friday evening in many markets, I think 5x is not outrageous. But somewhere between those 2. High end could take it close to 10 than 9 as it being a quasi friday means MTC1 ratio will be lower. Let us see how things go tomorrow. I hope @rehpyc also provides an update tomorrow as does @Inceptionzq -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I wish I could say I am the most accurate. But I am not(Too many variables and my data sample at times is too high and could have bias). Dune 2 was more of instinct based on expectations that Denis will deliver a RAVE and he did. Go with @M37 normally as he looks at all the data from all locations. Generally that provides better perspective. @Porthos black magic is also at play for previews for big preview movies. So keep an eye on Sacramento data as well. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Previews(T-1) - 85565/646340 1580924.03 3534 shows +16410 Friday - 102461/1097919 1804552.17 6145 shows +21727 Strong day for sure. 4x from T-1 PS takes it to ~150K and 5x to ~165k ish finish. ~8-9m previews is in play. Friday should hit 160k ish by tomorrow night and hit 320-350K finish. High end could take it to 25m True Friday and 75m+ OW as @M37 had predicted yesterday. I think even @charlie Jatinder post about beating Dune 2 OW is in play. -
Untitled PTA Project | August 8, 2025 | DiCaprio eyed to lead
keysersoze123 replied to TMP's topic in Box Office Discussion
Are you look at averages when it opened only prestige theaters in NYC/LA. They are not representative of broader market interest. That audience get hooked into wider base of movies. -
Untitled PTA Project | August 8, 2025 | DiCaprio eyed to lead
keysersoze123 replied to TMP's topic in Box Office Discussion
If Leo were to collaborate again with Cameron or Nolan, its going to have 1B potential. Even another Spielberg collab has huge potential. PTA definitely not. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I dont know about previews for sure, but Friday is not missing 20m at this point. Its a holiday boosted BO on that day. Question is how much higher it can go above 20m is going to decide where its going to end up for the week. "Just" 20m would mean low 60s OW at this point. -
Untitled PTA Project | August 8, 2025 | DiCaprio eyed to lead
keysersoze123 replied to TMP's topic in Box Office Discussion
Let us see. Revenant was a limited release in christmas that built significant oscar buzz and Leo/Hardy combo to ride Jan/Feb BO season. This is a summer release. I am skeptical it can get that high. PTA has zero audience hook. If Punch Drunk Love with a superstar could not even open and I am skeptical he is going to do it in 2025. -
Untitled PTA Project | August 8, 2025 | DiCaprio eyed to lead
keysersoze123 replied to TMP's topic in Box Office Discussion
debatable how GA friendly they were. Punch Drunk Love with Sandler did under 18m domestic and 25m WW. Sandler used to have regular 100m hits back then. Licorize pizza is another BO flop though that opened in COVID era. I dont think PTA is any hook for audience and Leo has 1B grosser that is Titanic. Only Inception came close and that is a sci-fi action movie with Nolan coming after Dark Knight. if this movie does 200m WW its great. WB is financing it as a prestige project. Not for a blockbuster success. -
Untitled PTA Project | August 8, 2025 | DiCaprio eyed to lead
keysersoze123 replied to TMP's topic in Box Office Discussion
Political themed movies dont have huge upside despite controversies. We are already sick of reading all the crap around MAGA. Plus knowing PTA, it wont be GA friendly as well. -
Untitled PTA Project | August 8, 2025 | DiCaprio eyed to lead
keysersoze123 replied to TMP's topic in Box Office Discussion
I could not find this thread. Anyway I hope this is wrong. DanielRPK is not always right. -
Not sure how accurate this is going to be. But its not screaming a blockbuster for sure.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Previews(T-2) - 69155/640680 1297769.61 3491 shows +10487 Friday - 80734/1083696 1441303.64 6044 shows +16099 Flattish day for previews. Not surprised after how things went yesterday and lack of any catalyst. Friday did go up a bit and I feel good about 20m+ True Friday or even more once we get to gauge walkups on thursday. I am still feeling good about my prediction yesterday. -
Just finished season 1. Definitely intriguing show. Wont say its fantastic but definitely worth a look. I thought the plot was too convoluted and as a story it was not complete. Just a part 1 of a bigger story. That said episodes were crisp and characters were mostly well written. Wade and the character portrayed by Wong were really good. The scientist were ok. Not that convincing as super smart genius. funniest character Jack does not last too long either. Romantic sub plots were meh as well.
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Is he taking another pop culture character and turning into a movie or is Leo in a PTA joint. if its 1st anything is on the table. Otherwise there is a ceiling. PTA's movies are not for everyone.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Why would you expect deadline to be any kind of expert on OS BO. I am not sure studio low balled and gave this number setting low expectations. Based on Maoyan the OW in China will be close to 50m OW. Asia will do great as well as should Latin America. @charlie Jatinder is good at predicting OS OW. ask in OS thread for the movie. -
Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
keysersoze123 replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
nm. I did not read the entire post. Is there any Easter break(unlikely). If Maoyan is right we are looking at 350m OW. -
Weekday Numbers (3/25-28)
keysersoze123 replied to charlie Jatinder's topic in Box Office Discussion
Nothing beats Transformers 2 OW. Mojo put a caveat. * Note: Revenge of the Fallen's weekend gross fell $3 million short of Paramount's Sunday estimate, which would have put the five-day opening at $198.2 million. Though shy of $200 million, it would have still ranked second among the all time five-day starts. However, Paramount revised its grosses from Wednesday and Thursday upward, and that's what pushed the total past $200 million. Wednesday went from $60.6 million to $62.0 million, and Thursday went from $28.6 million to $29.1 million. Paramount reported that the differences came from unreported showings from the movie's midnight openings on Wednesday night, which went from the previously reported $16 million at around 3,000 theaters to $16.8 million at close to 3,300 theaters, as well as late reports from institutional IMAX locations and theaters in Puerto Rico and some Caribbean islands (which the studio counts in its domestic numbers), which accounted for $1.1 million of the difference. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed3464102916/ -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Normally movies do like 3-4x the wednesday PS on thursday at MTC1. Sometimes movies do even better like say Venom 2 or Minions. This can do 5x as thursday evening should behave like Friday and Friday walkups tend to be way better than thursday. Friday should behave like saturday and so walkups will be even better than that. I want to see the pace today before going overboard on the predictions. Let us see if there is any acceleration as show counts will increase a lot today as well. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
keysersoze123 replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Previews(T-3) - 58668/597617 1110918.90 3196 shows +10239 Friday - 64635/941190 1167794.51 5097 shows +13660 Terrific day but I expected this looking at Monday PS for past few weeks. It always seem to be huge coming out of a weekend. Let us see if the momentum continues tomorrow or is it just the Monday thing. I am thinking 8m previews is in play after this and true friday in high teens or even 20m is in play with very good walkups considering its a semi holiday and will play well with family crowd. something like 8/20/21/15 - 64m OW is my prediction a this point.