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keysersoze123

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Everything posted by keysersoze123

  1. keysersoze123
    Thanks Shawn. I meant initial prediction which is generally seen 6-7 weeks before release. I thought industry tracking is not out until 3 weeks before release. I was not critiquing BOP. Just put it that when predictions are made long before release they tend to be all over the place. Breakouts are under predicted while disappointments are over predicted(DP/BOP etc). We also have movies like Frozen 2 where final weekend was very close to initial prediction(125m?). I understand predictions tend to change a lot once we have tracking data.
  2. keysersoze123
    not just those 3, even prometheus released between those movies and movies lost show count very fast. At least screencount is way higher than 2012 and so market could support 3 movies a week. Question is would audience have the appetite to see all of them when the country is just back from this situation.
  3. keysersoze123
    I did not think the genre will have backloaded PS sales. Anyway Brahms: Boys II MTC1 - overall 1108 shows 1140/152899 14907.00 11714.70 post 6PM 600 shows 911/83355 12137.43 9435.60 MTC2 - overall 1218 shows 1198/165306 11600.99 8940.88 post 6PM 491 shows 670/65933 7432.88 5144.19 As putrid as thursday for sure 🙂
  4. keysersoze123
    Deadline initially just puts in Industry tracking based on Awareness/Definite Interest/first choice numbers. That may or may not be accurate. BOP is predicting based on social numbers. Again its accuracy tends to be all over the place. Initial prediction had Dolittle ahead of Bad Boys 🙂
  5. keysersoze123
    As I said they are hard to predict. Its easier to do weekly comps once we have one tuesday number. plus I checked just one MTC. Too many variables.
  6. keysersoze123
    Discount tuesdays are hard to predict. Just as comps Dolittle dropped 57% in ticket sales at MTC on 1st tuesday and gross dropped 69%. Sonic is dropping just 33% in ticket sales at MTC1. I wonder if the drop would be just 40-45% from President's day.
  7. keysersoze123
    While its unlikely for it to beat Dolittle(releasing week after a huge family breakout) I would not count it out. I think it could potentially do better than Dolittle with OD PS and it have way better reviews than Dolittle. But releasing one week after Sonic is not a great idea. The should have released it couple of weeks before that. Dolittle benefited from absolutely no competition for families.
  8. keysersoze123
    The Call of the Wild OD MTC1 - overall 1274 shows 5576/220521 84037.20 70659.84 post 6PM 640 shows 3332/111045 54560.15 44877.09 MTC2 - overall 1959 shows 7054/288168 68243.35 54763.33 post 6PM 799 shows 3085/117898 35861.09 24880.95 Just as I thought OD PS is much better. MTC1 showtimes are not yet final. You will see a huge boost in showtimes tomorrow. I expect it to take the lead tomorrow. I think at least mid teens OW will happen based on the data seen so far. Reviews are not bad either and it has Ford.
  9. keysersoze123
    The Call of the Wild(T-2) MTC1 - overall 584 shows 3635/98588 59793.13 48934.60 MTC2 - overall 853 shows 4967/113283 50574.91 39694.70 Still PS is very low. Will need huge ramp up to even hit 1m previews. Let us where things are tomorrow. It could do well with walk ups as its a family movie. I could see it hit mid teens OW even with small previews. I will update with OD PS sometime later. Brahms: the boys II (T-2) MTC1 - overall 391 shows 879/55404 11386.85 8761.94 MTC2 - overall 468 shows 397/60430 4664.15 3249.71 This has probably lowest PS that I have tracked. Lower than Turning. Definitely headed towards single digit weekend.
  10. keysersoze123
    I will be surprised to see any hollywood movie during prime weekends and summer this year. Though the movies that were planned for summer would be delayed because of Virus. I hope @Olive would do post COVID-19 preview for the year for chinese movies. Then the hollywood movies would release around the big chinese movies. They will at least give 2 weeks of open run for Chinese movies. .
  11. keysersoze123
    Would the preference be given to Chinese movies before hollywood ones. After all even some CNY movies will open on big screen. I dont see DC3 open directly on streaming. I could see Bond/BW/F9 all open on the same weekend 🙂
  12. keysersoze123
    From $ drop its around 28% but Canada will drop harder. So overall I would say 11.5m monday for Sonic.
  13. keysersoze123
    Fast and Furious 9 (T - 94) MTC1 - overall 954 shows 16769/208629 288634.02 MTC2 - overall 1945 shows 7210/316826 95594.69 I am impressed by how well its doing at MTC1. It sold almost 10K tickets in under 3 weeks. Still its almost impossible to predict how big its previews will be. Only thing I am sure it will be way higher than Hobbs and Shaw.
  14. keysersoze123
    I think this is from someone in Japan I think based on the post. I was just quoting it. It could be that Disney is releasing F2 on Home Video/Streaming and so the screening is stopped. i think something like this happened for the 1st movie as well if I am not wrong.
  15. keysersoze123
    From ticket sales perspective Sonic is already at 72% of yesterday at MTC. It generally slows down quite a bit in the evening. but it should hit the estimates for sure.
  16. keysersoze123
    from KJ(not corpse)
  17. keysersoze123
    Sonic sold 283K at MTC1 and 244K at MTC2. I think its dropping low 20's at worst. 16-16.5m sunday.
  18. keysersoze123
    Onward Advanced Screening(2/29) MTC1 - 1450/17212 5283.16 (98 shows) MTC2 - 2678/11378 24908.25 (101 shows) Marathon shows have sold 51 tickets at MTC1(3 shows) and 48 tickets at MTC2(2 shows). I hope the showcount goes up. Otherwise the numbers are small probably looking at 500K gross with advanced screenings. Edit: I would ignore $ value as some of the shows returned ticket price as $0 at MTC1.
  19. keysersoze123
    Sure will do. i did not see lots of shows earlier. Let me check and revert back. Edit: it seems there are 2 different kind of shows in 29th. Advance screening and a marathon show. I had earlier checked for Marathon and there are very few shows for that. Anecdotally the advance screenings are doing good. But let me get the numbers.
  20. keysersoze123
    For those who have not seen RTH's previous post on OS markets.
  21. keysersoze123
    Invisible Man(T-11) MTC1 - overall 661 shows 1833/139882 32306.93 26808.86 MTC2 - overall 766 shows 773/143200 9577.42 6989.71 I have been hearing that this movie could breakout. But no signs from PS perspective.
  22. keysersoze123
    Sonic ticket sales is at 245K at 1050PM. yesterday it was at 290K at 1030ish. So around 20% down.
  23. keysersoze123
    Even then hollywood is a small casualty. something like 30 movies releases and only half a dozen does well. Chinese movie market will lose lots more. CNY week alone is like Yuge loss. I am sure some hollywood movies like BW, F9, Bond will release late if situation returns to norm in 6 months. Otherwise tough luck to those movies. They can obviously do direct to streaming in those markets for bigger value than post theatrical release.
  24. keysersoze123
    I am sorry. DIsaster for chinese folks. Who cares about few bucks lost by hollywood. Here millions are impacted and the economy has stopped in those locations. How about places like Beijing/Shanghai. I heard Tesla factory opened and so is it controlled in those locations or fingers crossed until things go to hell over there as well. I am amazed Stock market is discounting this news. Even chinese stocks like BABA and TCHY are not down !!!!
  25. keysersoze123
    Sonic finished D2 with 333K at MTC1 and 297K at MTC2. Increase in gross is about 17-18%. But MTC1/2 tend to under index on saturdays when other chains tend to increase more. So Charlie's numbers should be almost on point. Photograph sold 78.5K at MTC1 and 50K at MTC2. So it dropped hard. I would say 30% drop nationally from its VD OD. Fantasy Island sold slightly more than 58K at MTC1 and more than 55K at MTC2 when I last checked aroun 830PM PST. So it held much better than Photograph. Probably would have dropped 20% from friday nationally. I will only track Sonic starting Day 3. PS for Day 3 is very robust. I am expecting it to have a strong hold(20-25% ish).
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