LonePirate

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8robmeh/ If anyone attends this movie and they are not expecting it to be a standing up, full-throated sing-along concert experience, then they are in for a big surprise.

One thing to keep in mind with regard to KotFM is the running time which is almost 3.5 hours. That extra 30 minutes per showtime will likely keep the film to 3 showtimes per screen per day, perhaps 4 on some screens, whereas the mere 3 hour Oppenheimer squeezed out one more showtime per day per screen.

Is it me or is the marketing for this film giving the appearance that this film is a supernatural/horror type of film and not a murder mystery?

Bottoms is the best movie about a fight club from the past 25 years. Suck it, Fincher!

Her fans buy multiple copies of her albums simply because they are packaged in different colors. I expect repeat viewings will be a widespread norm, especially given that ticket prices are not much higher than an album. I feel sorry for anyone who buys a ticket and thinks their screening won’t be a sing-along. They are in for a big surprise.

FYC:

Will there be any PLFs not showing this on OW now that Exorcist is jumping up a week and the landscape is otherwise barren? Given the sky high ATP, I don’t see how this doesn’t blow past $100M OW, especially since her fans will see this multiple times if they can. Hell, it’s possible $200M could be in play despite the very long running time.

Yeah, this will easily be the highest grossing opening weekend since Barbie as I think it could certainly flirt with if not surpass $100M for its OW. With it also being released in Regal, Cinemark and other chains besides AMC, capacity limitations will only stop the film from hitting $200M for the weekend. I’m seeing a lot of non-PLF showings for Saturday that have very few seats remaining after only a few hours of sales. Some large 300-400 seat and larger screens already have few seats left available.

Lots of movement on the all-time chart in the next few days by Oppenheimer. On Tuesday, it passed Twilight: Eclipse for #102. On Thursday, it will pass HP & Half-Blood Prince for #101. On Friday, it will pass The Hobbit for #100. On Saturday, it will pass Skyfall for #99. On Sunday, it will pass PotC: The Curse of the Black Pearl for # 98 and maybe even Independence Day for #97. Barbie will pass The Incredibles on Sunday, maybe Saturday, for #13.

Looks like Barbie is hitting $600M on Friday.

Barbie needs about $53.3M more to obtain a 4.0x multiplier and another $5M or so after that to pass Jurassic World for #10 on the all-time list. Seems to be a bit of a stretch but the film has no competition for its main audience and it keeps spending time atop the daily charts so it will probably leg it out. Simply amazing how the film will finish up with a gross of roughly 6x what even the rosiest of optimists thought it could achieve before the summer started. Oppenheimer needs another $29.8M to reach a 4.0x multiplier domestically which would also put it at #5 on the all-time R-rated list behind Joker and #82 on the all-time list, barely behind Batman v. Superman. It's going to be tight; but given how the film has overperformed every step of the way, I can't rule it out especially with IMAX screens having plenty of openings this fall. The combined Barbenheimer domestic gross will eventually be within sight of $1B which is astonishing. Both films are going to be contenders come awards season so both could see expansions this coming winter and that might be enough to push the duo into ten digit territory. Incredible to say the least.

There are some interesting scheduling choices today. The above seating charts are from an AMC IMAX screen in suburban KC for this afternoon. The first is the 1:15pm Oppenheimer and the second is the 5:15pm Gran Turismo. I am still skeptical of Oppenheimer hitting $300M today but I am even more skeptical of GT winning the weekend. This AMC certainly has the wrong movie playing at 5:15pm.

NCD serves two primary purposes: getting people back into the habit of going to theaters and juicing concession sales. With some exceptions (TMNT and some re-issues like JP and Lady Bird), box office grosses are not going to be that impressive compared to what they normally would have been. I checked an AMC in Austin and regular afternoon tickets are $12 so they have to sell 3x the number of tickets to match the grosses. If the movie would have been at 40% capacity normally, the box office gross is less on NCD. It will be tough for any film to clear $5M today.

Saturday increases last week: Blue Beetle: 27.0% (from true Friday) Barbie: 31.8% Oppenheimer: 41.9% TMNT: 56.4% Even with NCD tomorrow, I see no reason why increases today would be any smaller than last week and they probably will be greater. Still, matching last week's increases gives us these numbers for today: Blue Beetle: $4.00M/$40.14M Barbie: $5.27M/$586.97M Oppenheimer: $3.12M/$296.39M TMNT: $2.39M/$95.96M I'm not convinced these grosses can be duplicated on Sunday at $4 a head but we'll see. Barring better than expected Saturday increases, Oppenheimer hits $300M on Monday, Barbie reaches $600M on Thursday give or take a day and TMNT crosses $100M next Friday or Saturday.

If DL is projecting GT at $15M-$16M after a $2.7M true Friday and $8M for Friday with previews, then Barbie is going to win the weekend. She will outgross GT's true Friday, its Saturday and Sunday by more than $5.3M. I wouldn't be surprised if Barbie drops less than 15% this weekend if NCD treats it well as it likely will.

That 2pm-5pm window on Sunday is doing solid business for almost all films except for GT (unless it is on a PLF) and TLM which will not be touching $300M this weekend. Other films, especially BB and TMNT, are performing well during that time frame on Sunday, although business is noticeably lighter before and after the main afternoon hours. One fun tidbit I noticed when checking the AMC Century City location in Los Angeles on Sunday is that GT has one showing on their IMAX screen, BB has two showings and Oppy has one. Of the 4 IMAX shows, Oppy has sold about 45% of the total tickets with GT and BB splitting the other 55%. GT is doing best in Regal’s 4DX theaters as it should as that is exactly the type of movie to be experienced in that format. Outside of that, it is not going to be an impressive weekend for the film.

We’ve had the Wonka trailer for several weeks now. The first Barbie teaser was released in December 2022. Aquaman 2 is late.

I know others will disagree; but the lack of a trailer this close to the release reeks of major quality issues with the movie. It reminds me of the late arriving trailer for Thor: Love and Thunder which was an awful movie. WB needed to have an Aquaman trailer in front of Flash, Barbie and Blue Beetle. The marketing department and/or DC and Gunn all royally screwed up here.

You are absolutely correct on both points you make here. Bros was about gay men, starred openly gay men and was made by gay men for gay men. When you combine that with the highly polarizing (aka unlikeable to some/many) Eichner, the movie was always going struggle at the box office, no matter how funny it was - and I thought the movie was very funny. Contrast that with the recent Amazon Prime movie Red, White and Royal Blue which was also about bi/gay men. However, it did not star openly gay men. The book upon which it was based was written by a straight woman (I believe) although I think the director is gay. Most importantly, the movie was made for straight women - the same audience who made the book a massive success and who are posting TikTok videos by the truckload where they are fangirling and swooning over the movie. You don't need to be a studio executive to determine why Bros failed and RWRB is succeeding. How the representation is used is far more important than the representation itself. Blue Beetle is learning that painful lesson that representation will only take you so far.

OC as in Orange County? Or another OC? I don’t know what theater you’ve been checking but I looked at several in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas and there are plenty of BB and Barbie seats available on NCD. Where are you seeing these sell outs?

Here are some miscellaneous milestones for Oppenheimer. Current domestic gross: $285.36M Gross needed to pass Inception: $7.23M Gross needed to reach $300M: $14.64M Gross needed to reach Top 100 all-time: $17.68M (passing The Hobbit) Gross needed to reach #6 on all-time R-rated list: $39.24M (passing Deadpool 2) Gross needed to reach #5 on all-time R-rated list: $43.52M (passing It)

I checked several Regal complexes for Sunday and TSMBM is only receiving one or two shows at most of them. I did find one in Atlanta where it is showing four times. Barbie is being given plenty of showtimes so it should easily be the largest beneficiary of NCD to no one's surprise. Oppenheimer is picking up some showings on IMAX screens that had dumped it in favor of Blue Beetle this past weekend so that might help offset some losses from the jam packed 70mm IMAX screens. Both Barbie and Oppy will be ever so close to their $600M/$300M milestones after Sunday and both should achieve those grosses by the end of the month. Also, most of these Regal complexes have showings as early as 8am or 9am on Sunday. More theaters need to do this on opening weekends for big movies. Granted, we don't have many big movies left to open this year; but it is definitely something that needs to happen next summer.

Barbie needs $7.5M or so pass TSMBM to claim #1 for 2023. Small chance it could happen on Tuesday but if not, it definitely will happen on Wednesday. I’m not sure anything on the calendar for the rest of the year will pass $300M so its crown for the year should be secure.

Somewhat interesting that NCD is moving from a Saturday last year to a Sunday this year. Drops should be minimal this week and we might even see some increases from Saturday, except for Oppenheimer which will almost certainly take a hit with AMC and Regal lowering those $20+ IMAX 70mm prices down to $4.

I wonder if actuals will be enough to push Barbenheimer over $2B. Seems like it just shy of the milestone with current estimates.