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Everything posted by jimisawesome

  1. Its not only the government that deserves blame, lets not forget Disney and their 40% marketshare pre pandemic did nothing to help and made the situation worse by moving everything to D+. Sony and Paramount where not much help either. Honestly if AMC did not become a meme stock what would have happened?
  2. If the content producers wanted to buy theaters they had a year to do so and the closest we got was a rumor Amazon was kicking the tyres of AMC last June. A netflix might buy a location here and there for Oscar and marketing reasons but something even more radical than COVID would need to happen.
  3. I am not saying its impossible but Labor Day is dumping ground because a lot of large school districts start school the Tuesday after Labor Day and a lot of other schools are still in their first or second week so a lot of parents running around still for school supplies setting up the new routines etc. There is 1 non R rated weekend in the top 70 august weekends after the 17th and you have to hit the 18th best September weekend to find a non R rated movie released before the 18th. I can see taking a chance with a horror movie or an R rated movie as especially horror movies have been successful the weekend after Labor Day but it really would be a huge change for a movie that needs the 4 quadrants to have success then.
  4. Just have to say the last few pages have been awesome when you compare them to WB thread after the announcement. WB was killing theaters at a time when everything looked bleak with COVID numbers. Yet when things look great with COVID numbers Disney is just giving people options.
  5. Its just the reality of the market place. Marvel & Star Wars specifically make up 10 of the top 14 opening weekends. JW is the only non Disney movie in the top 14. These are the franchises that have had an opening weekend in the top 40 Marvel Star Wars JW Disney Live Action remake Incredibles HP Batman* Hunger Games SM** Fast Furious Twilight POTC Finding DCUE Deadpool It Now of this list, Harry Potter is dead and its spin off is performing nothing like the original. Batman and JW do not open until 2022 which is 2.5 to 3 years after most of the theater going public will last have been in a theater. Hunger Games, Twilight and IT are all done as franchises. Fast 7 is not representative of the domestic performance of the rest of the franchise. Spiderman is now partly financed by Disney. Deadpool is now owned by Disney outright. So yeah, any discussion of movies that will put butts into seats has to talk about SW and Marvel.
  6. They where already planning to do a secondary and where on a road show (talking to potential buyers of big blocks of stock) when the Meme Buying started. You could not find more perfect of timing so they took advantage and went right into the secondary right away saving themselves a huge amount of stock dilution and probably raising more money then they would have in a non Meme world. They should have bought themselves into next year with minimum income if what their figures and projections are correct. Equally as important to this story because of the conversation they got more debt overhead so if they do need to hit the debt markets they should have an easier time and a lower cost buying even more time.
  7. Yes, it happened at the perfect time for AMC because they where able to sell their secondary right into the heart of the meme. What this means is they had to sell less of their company (shares) that they planned on in order to raise the same or more funds. The even bigger deal though was one of their big debt holders Silver Lake converted their debt into shares. Meaning AMC took 600 million in debt off their books. AMC already announced some location closing. I expect they will close any AMC Classics that are within 20 miles of another AMC location along with other locations that are in close proximity and have not had remodel or are low volume. At the end of the day end up around 15-20% of their locations closed over the next year.
  8. I hope I am wrong but I think you will see an ongoing 15-20% drop from 2019 levels. There has just been no indication at all that people will go to a theater to go to a theater. When areas open up Bars and indoor dining there is a noticeable uptick in revenue and people are going out. That just has not happened at all with theaters. A market opens up or re-closes and you just don't see it at all in the box office numbers. Sure only a few mostly WB movies have come out but you would expect to see something. COVID hit at a horrible time for theaters. Avengers basically ended and there is not a mega Marvel movie on deck. This gives people a jumping off point for the need to rush out to theaters to see them. You combine that with their ability to get their Marvel fix on D+ right on the coach. You also have other big franchises that have recently ended like Star Wars and if they need their fix they have the more critically acclaimed TV show to watch on D+.
  9. Cases probably will rise again but luckily Texas has the 3rd lowest population of over 65 and might just dodge the ICU and deaths bullet.
  10. AMC at the very least needs to put their foot down and threaten no or reduced showing for any movie that pushes it date back again. The vaccine is beyond a game changer even with the mess that is the rollout. By pushing the dates again its studios telling the public yet again the theaters are not safe when now is the time for the studios to actually start pushing CInemasafe. Even the CDC today finally upgraded indoor guidelines to match what AMC was doing last August. Waiting is not making it any safer instead its just making people more comfortable staying home to watch movies or TV shows. The only chance movies in the fall or summer have of making money is if movies come out in the spring and make people comfortable with the idea of going back.
  11. If "meme stocks" continues all the studios might be at the mercy of AMC by the end of the summer if they ever want to have their movies shown in theaters again that is if AMC does not buy them all first. (jokes)
  12. That is probably about the correct time for when this should happen but given the details today its still pretty clear the actual evidence is still being ignored and decisions will be based on safety theater first and foremost.
  13. The shot I took at the very end is what you took from my post? The 90% rest of my post is agreeing with you that F9 and BW are going to move as NY state still have not given guidance to theaters despite giving guidance to other amusement activities and also pointing out the realistic capacity limits that theaters will be looking at if and when they are ever allowed to reopen.
  14. Chuck E Cheese can reopen in NY on March 26th at 25% capacity. Outdoor Amusement parks for some reason have to wait another couple weeks to open to 33% capacity. No news on Movie Theaters. At least CA has clear guidelines instead of this pull from stuff from my --- that is going on in the NY. It seems likely that even if theaters open in NY in May it will be at most 25% capacity and its anyones guess when the capacity number will be allowed to rise as its not likes indoor dining or a retirement home.
  15. To add on, even with theaters in CA and NY open its going to be a long time before crowds show back up if the discussions around reopening school are any indication. From what I see in these discussions no amount of public awareness or CinemaSafe will matter a significant number of people believe going anywhere means you get covid and die and no amount of peer review will change their minds.
  16. More great news for AMC they are off the hook of 600 million of their debt as Silverlake converted debt to equity this week.
  17. I think a lot of companies finally figured out that most people don't even know what product is being advertised in most of the SB ads. Movie and beer ads are some of the few that you can actually name the product being sold.
  18. Disney kind of did. They are releasing basically everything to D+ with the exception of the Fox Films, the marvel movies and a couple of others but basically the rest of actual Disney films are going stright to D+ now.
  19. This week they announced they raised 100 million via a bond offering. They are still looking at a secondary stock offering to raise another 150 million. They are doing everything they can to keep the lights on but they are getting killed on interest and if movies don't come back will have trouble medium term servicing the debt.
  20. They made a mistake moving it from the Fall 2020 date. Sure they did not have the upside but it would have provided downside protection. If TENET made 363 then Bond would have a floor of an absolute floor of 400 with 450-500 more likely the bottom end. It would have kept Regal's open and they would have got the NY theaters while they where open. This while they started the marketing push by releasing the Bond Song before moving the date the next day. They could also be enjoying the post theatrical dollars right now. Now this Nov there is probably more upside but also the same or more downside risk. You are probably looking at 100-200 more in upside this year from a Fall 2020 release but you are also looking at a market that might very well shrink dramatically and you are holding out hope to match TENET numbers and it could end up at WW84 levels where only the hardest core fans of the IP show up and everyone else waits or people see this as past its sell by date or CA, NY and Chicago theaters are still closed. If the numbers given about Apple and then the second round of streamer talks are true you have the streaming services already seeing the movie as a depreciating assist (600 to under 300). MGM is less valuable to any buyer because they have this hanging around their neck not making money.
  21. Exactly, this is well pass its sell by date and not going to make much of anything. So either bite the bullet and just release it as a hybrid release or buy/trade the rights back for the HBO window and give it to Hulu at this point. The hybrid release at least gives the theaters something to show and make a few million with to help keep the doors open.
  22. There is going to be a lot of 'safety theater' for a while both as pure theater and because the current science does not make it down to this level. So yeah I just don't see any surviving theater chain allowing full capacity until at least Nov at the earliest even if by some miracle we basically end it by July. They will want to be seen as being overly safe for the customers. They will also likely lose a showing per screen too in order to be able to do the deep clean to again show they are overly safe. The major grocery store chain by me still has a couple of employees at the entrance to show they are cleaning each cart despite the evidence being it does not easily via touching. But, this is the type of info that is still believed and even medical sites still have on as a way of a common transmission. So because this is believed this kind of action is going to continue to take place for a while.
  23. If this is true the next half decade of the entertainment industry is going to be fun. Something like Tomorrow War sells for 200 million but a movie that has well over 3x the box office potential (conservatively 4-6x range) and one of the best known IP can't sell for 300 million then the market is just bonked and every formula or previous decision is now basically useless. We are going to end up with endless Brights and other here today gone tomorrow Netflix movies. Or what ever sci fi flick Bezo has a hinkering to watch
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