Not every critical hit is gonna be Oppenheimer, and not every critical tank is gonna be Madame Web. It happens.
It's not even doing bad, just not as good as some previous tracking surges indicated.
The worst part is that of the realistic candidates Paramount was the (extremely relatively) least scary option. Of the major studios the last left is Universal, and of streamers it's Apple and Netflix.
Months ago, yes it wasn't as common. When reviews/presales really began to heat up there was speculation it could outperform substantially above expectations (which I would argue it still is, overall). Especially with the speculation as to exactly how much COVID suppressed the original (which now appears to be maybe at most 100 mil shaved off)
I think when reviews hit people got their hopes up Dune would be an Oppenheimer type blow up but it's not really shaping that way so far, so they can't appreciate that this is still basically locked for a substantial jump from the first movie. Messiah is all but officially happening, so all this is absolutely a win.
It definitely seems to be Oppenheimers to lose. But crazier upsets have happened; the Academy's ranked choice system means there's sometimes a wild left fielder, but those typically tend to happen in the nominations and not winners
I will say it sounds like this has more legit cult potential than Morbius if only because the stuff people are making memes about is the actual content of the movie.