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riczhang

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riczhang last won the day on February 24 2013

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    Occasional Lingerer

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  1. For some reason I thought it was.... Maybe this year's equivalent is like Being the Ricardos or Lost Daughter.... Tho I don't see either Kidman or Colman having any momentum, but I guess they could surprise. Truly any of the 5 could win and it wouldn't be the worlds biggest shock.
  2. Yes in Best Actress, you can win with a weaker film, but Julianne Moore was in a very dead year. She probably wouldn't have won in a more competitive year. Meryl is Meryl so rules don't apply for her. And The Danish Girl was a BP nominee, so at least the academy liked it (plus not like Steve Jobs was a particularly strong film either). In more recent years, when there's been a more competitive race the stronger film has won out. Look at Olivia Colman winning over Glenn (😭😭😭) and Fran picking up her third over Davis and Mulligan. Though, I guess those were also stronger films with the Academy and Parallel Mothers wasn't as much.
  3. But Tammy Faye wasn't a very good movie and we've seen that in years where the race is more all over the place the stronger movie ends up winning.
  4. I think the issue with Penelope is getting enough people to watch the film given it's smaller, it's a lone nom, and it's foreign. Once people watch it, it's really hard not to vote for her because it is the best performance in the category by far and it's also her best performance in ages. I've been having a feeling for the last few weeks now that she can win - it seems like there is a lot of support for her but it could just all be anecdotal. The more international academy makeup nowadays probably benefits her.
  5. Ya I've seen it twice now in Toronto and it was absolutely packed (sold out or close to) both screenings. Plus now that Amazon is going to own MGM is how much money it makes even really all that relevant anymore?
  6. Ya but you can’t assume that right? Like with reserved seating you can almost guarantee the first row or two are gonna be largely empty. And im not sure outside of like big population centers like population density is high enough to really support selling out every showing.
  7. Absolutely it matters because 90 min vs. 150 min means an extra showing or two a day. So automatically you get 20-30% higher ceiling. Because there is a bit of running into supply constraints with IW. Definitely I know anecdotally there’s a lot of my friends who would’ve seen it OW but couldn’t get good tickets. Especially with reserved seating these days, like people aren’t just gonna walk up and nope they have a good seat instead of front row and a one way ticket to nausea. So ya, being able to add an extra showtime or two would really help. (And this is a trend in the movie industry too of shorter movies. We don’t really see the 3 hour epics anymore. Is at 2.5 hours is considered LONG)
  8. I think there’s still statistically a ceiling, but we probably need to revisit that $250 mm number. I remember that number being thrown around as the max since like HP7 like 7 years ago. With population growth, expansion of large / premium format experiences, and also just inflation (an IMAX 2D ticket is $21 where I live now compared with $16 or $18 a couple of years ago and regular tickets are now $14 up from $11). So, the ceiling probably still exists it’s just not $250 mm. Probably like $300 or $325 or something.
  9. There was one in Toronto today haha. Thought it was pretty averagely executed, but the story was pretty good and ya I do see this doing well at least in terms of legs.
  10. It better be. It’s the first Nolan I’ve absolutely loved. If Shape of Blandness wins I might die.
  11. No but the sequel is basically performing at like half of the originals level despite getting better reviews and doing much better at the BO in the U.K.. So think there was anticipation that it’d at least match its predecessors performance in the States. Dont think it it really matters tho. It’s done well enough in Europe that they’ve turned a profit and were probably getting Paddington 3.
  12. Oh 100% ya. I saw it at TIFF and honestly I cried for the last solid like 25-30 minutes
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