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Burgess

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Posts posted by Burgess

    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    BW -> Aug 7
    Eternals -> Dec 18  
    GvK -> Nov 7
    NTTD-> Nov 20
    F9 -> Sep 4
    WW84 -> Oct 16   
     
    Rough sketch. If first half movies need to get shuffled back a bit the good news is that 2020 Aug/Sep/Oct/Dec are a bit soft in terms of big movies anyway at the moment.


    This schedule assumes that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under control in fall/winter.


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures

    They may be better off just pushing through to the current release date. No one knows so you’re asking them to make a decision on unknown scenarios.


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    James Cameron
    Peter Jackson
    Martin Scorcese
    Christopher Nolan
    Michael Bay
    David Lean
    Dennis Villeneuve
    Russos Brothers
    David Fincher
     
    want to have a word with you.



    David Lean? Lmao. Why not list Francis Coppola’s Godfather trilogy too?

    Yes, some of the recent big blockbusters have had long runtimes. What is being implied? Why does that fact matter?


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    They are handling the domestic marketing?
     
    Because that long, genetically edited, spoiler filled trailer screams “Universal”, and not just because their logo is on the front.


    I think what he meant is that nothing gets released without the Broccolis giving the sign off. They may not have put it together and they may not be the only say but if it’s a ‘no’ from them then it’s most likely going to be a no.




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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Fixed - remember the Broccolis are calling the shots here...and yeah for whatever reason they really don't want to make a big deal out of this being Craig's Endgame moment.
     
    Anyway, from the IMAX earnings call just now - the film will be released "a few days early" in IMAX cinemas. presumably meaning domestically here as international release is so early anyway (world premiere Mar 31, UK release April 2)


    Interesting. I think the same strategy was used for Skyfall. If I remember correctly, Skyfall’s opening in the States when early IMAX showing were included was something closer to $90m.


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    I don't think losing the Chinese market should affect No Time to Die too much at the box office.
     
    Skyfall only grossed $59.3 million in China (so it still would've hit the $1 billion mark if it hadn't been released there), and Spectre only got to $83.5 million in China (less than 10% of the film's total box office).


    I agree with this. Don’t get me wrong, the Chinese gross is nothing to sneeze at but, like you stated, it’s a much smaller total of Bond’s worldwide gross compared to other franchises.

    I also think NTTD will perform significantly better than Spectre in key regions, like the US, UK and Western Europe. That paired with a strong USD (exchange rate), should push this past Spectre. It may not make $1.1b+ but a gross similar to TDK or TDKR, with different ratios, is entirely possible.


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    No Time to Die OS

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/02/17/coronavirus-box-office-james-bond-tom-cruise-dwayne-johnson-mulan-f9-tenet-sonic-top-gun/amp/



    "Spectre earned $83 million in China when it opened in late 2015, and there was every expectation that No Time to Die (which Universal is distributing overseas) would earn at least that much in April. Spectre grossed $881 million worldwide, so even an equal performance sans China still gets the $250 million-budgeted 007 adventure to $798 million (above Mission: Impossible – Fallout’s $792 million cume which included $136 million from China)."


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    No Time to Die OS

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Is there a chance that No Time To Die reaches the 800 million overseas?  This film looks amazing, and i see more hype for this than Spectre. 


    I think there's a real chance. With good reviews, I think, it has a chance at exceeding $800m.


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    No Time to Die OS

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Spectre was coming off Skyfall hype so I don't think No Time to Die has necessarily greater anticipation. That being said Bond always does great OS so going with $650M OS which is just under Spectre.

     

    I think the anticipation for Spectre was somewhat dulled because of the SONY hack and script leaks. The producers had to fight against a narrative that switched from ‘how will they follow up Skyfall?’ to ‘Will the movie be as questionable as the script.’

     

    The box office increases from Die Another Day to Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace to Skyfall demonstrate how a good Bond movie plays worldwide. If NTTD gets the kind of praise that Casino Royale and Skyfall received then, I think, a billion is a lock.

     

    To put it another way, QOS was lambasted and still came within spitting distance of CR. Had QOS and SP been released earlier in their respective years, then they would have benefitted from a stronger USD, i.e. a better exchange rate. QOS would have likely outgrossed CR and SP would have exceeded $900m globally.

     

    It seems that Mulan will underperform compared to recent Disney live-action films. So there very well could be a movie vacuum that NTTD will fill. NTTD would probably have seen an increase from SP in China but Bond is not Chinese dependent like The Fast and Furious franchise.

     

     

     

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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted


    I think the song really works in advancing the Bond “sound” with a new generation of potential fans, and it’s just a good song.

    In terms of marketing, NTTD is doing its job like gang busters:

    https://headlineplanet.com/home/2020/02/15/billie-eilishs-no-time-to-die-debuts-at-1-on-global-spotify-chart-2-on-us-listing/

    “Billie Eilish’s “No Time To Die” Debuts At #1 On Global Spotify Chart, #2 On US Listing“

    https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/pop/8551127/billie-eilish-no-time-to-die-justin-bieber-changes-best-new-release

    “Billie Eilish has beaten one of her absolute favorite musicians when it comes to the music fans can't get out of their heads at the moment.

    "No Time to Die," her new track for the upcoming James Bond film of the same name, has been voted the release of the week, and took in a whopping 66 percent of the vote.”


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Wow. 
     
    A $75 million opening weekend would make it surpass Quantum of Solace as the third-biggest opening weekend in the franchise, and the $100 million OW would be the biggest (Skyfall opened at $88.4 million, currently the franchise record-holder).
     
    I think we all know which one we want to happen.


    A week’s worth of positive reviews and box office from the UK opening, the Easter weekend and little competition could push the four day over $100m.


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