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Gopher

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Everything posted by Gopher

  1. Interesting to see how much TLK's run is mirroring BATB's domestically. Swinging higher on weekdays and lower on weekends. Presuming TLK has a 4x from a 38m weekend (BATB had 3.44x from its third weekend, will give the end of summer haziness the benefit of a doubt for TLK) it'll end up at 542m, just shy of BATB's multiplier (2.84x vs. 2.88x). It's safe to say Disney's out of IP for remakes that can make these numbers again on their own. Little Mermaid is a possibility but I'd expect closer to Aladdin's final total (still ungodly).
  2. Gonna point out in all the doom and gloom that Rocketman's going to hit a 42-43% drop off a solid opening weekend, easily the best of last weekend's releases. Will likely leg its way out past 90m. Totally respectable for a 40m grosser (though I imagine marketing was at least that much), which will clear 200 worldwide. Whether this was the best time of year to put it out for the film itself I'm unsure about, but it's definitive proof that an original movie for adults can fight its way past the summer insanity if 1. the marketing buy is strong enough 2. the movie is good.
  3. This will pass... Civil War in 5 days Ultron in 6-7 days Avengers in 10 days Black Panther in 15 days Avatar in 17 days Force Awakens... by the end of June at least
  4. Domestic crown feels likely. If it pulls 340-350 it only needs legs a bit better than IW's to get there. If a film was gonna get to 1 bil domestic this is the one.
  5. 10 mil previews 37m OD 32m Saturday 24.3m Sunday 93.3m weekend Go big or go home
  6. It's a strangely paced film (so was Unbreakable though!) and one of its plot developments I could see didn't even play with a crowd of die-hard M. Night fans. But I found the movie consistently entertaining and really admired its ambition. I'd much rather filmmakers at this level of attention make these sorts of risks, many of which landed for me. The reaction will be mixed but it will have its ride-or-die supporters.
  7. I think this holds closer to a Marvel than a Pixar, maybe down -53% to 85 mil for a 360m 10-day. I think it will co-exist with JW fine but it's going to be burning off a lot of demand during the week. From there it would need a 3.83x to hit 600. Dory did a 3.74x with a more competition (Pets) than I2 will face. It will be close. All that said... having seen this twice, both of my audiences were locked in to the movie. Repeat viewings are going to be kind to it.
  8. If presales are just outpacing Dory's, it's not outopening Dory. 10m previews 47m OD 40m Saturday 33m Sunday 120m OW (the original opened to 103m adjusted when CGI was a massive novelty and Pixar was undefeatable... this would be a good start)
  9. More studio fare like BOOK CLUB, please. Gonna pull well over a 5x and fill single screens well after the megablockbusters have hemorrhaged interest. The midrange success is crucial to the future of exhibitors.
  10. *checks numbers* Oof. Wonder what's opening next weekend... *checks next weekend* Ok guys see y'all in a few weeks!
  11. 16m previews 48m Friday 38m Saturday (+20%) 34m Sunday (-11%) 26m Sunday (-23%) 120m OW / 146m 4-day 325m DOM ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  12. Comedy sequels decrease, as do most superhero sequels outside the MCU, and Deadpool is proving the law of both. I think the only world in which a straight sequel to the first movie would increase is if they teamed Deadpool up with Logan or whatever. The fact that it's going to mirror the original's opening and was well received critically is kind of miraculous (it's also a far superior film to the original...)
  13. Kind of nuts that IW's run beyond its opening is somewhat dull to track only because Marvel outdid itself a couple months ago. From a 58m weekend Ultron legs take IW to 680m, Civil War legs to 660m. I'm inclined to split the difference unless it takes a 60% plummet next weekend (which is possible).
  14. 15m Thurs (-9%) 33m Fri (+120%) 54m Sat (+64%) 41m Sun (-24%) 128m (-50.4%) / 465m 10-day Assuming a slightly lower Friday bump than Avengers because of the stronger Monday hold. Its Saturday/Sunday are gonna be on par with Guardians 2's opening Saturday/Sunday this weekend last year...
  15. 250-255 OW Even with a 60% second weekend tumble that's 410-415 in 10-days. And there's no rules that it'll play like Ultron or Civil War anymore considering how high attendance is this weekend. We're in the endgame now...
  16. Might've been wrong earlier - an A Cinemascore and better exit polling than Civil War/Ultron is awesome for a movie with an ending this bleak. I think it'll come within spitting distance of the record depending on what kind of family bump it gets Saturday.
  17. 102 (63) 77 (+22) 59 (-23) 238 I think it tumbles to 95 (-60%) next weekend for a 10-day near 390. Civil War legs would take it from there to 537 (which wouldn't necessarily guarantee it the summer crown...) I totally dug the movie. Legs aren't gonna be kind.
  18. Things that benefit Annihilation a great deal: 1. An audience 2. A giant screen 3. Surround sound 4. The seeming inability to escape the world of the movie Gotta wonder where all of those can be found...
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