Jump to content

Gopher

Free Account+
  • Posts

    8,210
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    19

Everything posted by Gopher

  1. There was a great Godzilla movie out three months ago! Maybe they were hoping for something like that 🙂
  2. I enjoyed the first film very much but understood its limitations as far as general audiences jumping on board with it. I'm sure anyone who made Part One would tell you they prioritized mood over obviously propulsive storytelling beats. However, this could just be the religious transport of seeing the new one in a real IMAX theater with a thousand Dune-heads, but I think Part Two is about to break out beyond the diehards and become a "this is a must-see" word of mouth experience. It has that OPPENHEIMER-esque ineffable quality to it. Just feels so worthy of the theatrical experience. And to my surprise it doesn't feel like you'd be lost if you missed the first movie either... the first act of Part Two is kind of brilliant at establishing emotional stakes that weren't in Part One at all. I also think (or at least hope) Zendaya's performance alone in this is gonna get younger viewers talking. It almost feels in a meta way like a corrective to the marketing for the first movie overstating her screentime. She's all over this film and it's my favorite performance she's given to date.
  3. 2024 will be a self-afflicted wound from Hollywood, and there are several months on the calendar I'm worried about, but weirdly I'm not that worried about the Christmas slate? KARATE KID, MUFASA and SONIC 3 seem like reliable grossers to me. The LOTR animated movie is a wildcard but audience tastes over the past few years suggest that one has a high potential ceiling. And I expect more stuff for adults to slot in.
  4. The top 10 this year on Christmas Day accumulates to 58.78m. I guess that includes 5 mil or so from previews across the three openers, but putting it at face value with other years (that all had openers with previews), this is: +35.4% over Christmas Day 2022 (where WAY OF WATER accounted for 67.1% of the top 10 grosses) +4.4% over Christmas Day 2021 (where NO WAY HOME accounted for 56% of the top 10 grosses) -21.8% below Christmas Day 2019 (where RISE OF SKYWALKER accounted for 42.8% of the top 10 grosses) -17% below Christmas Day 2018 (where AQUAMAN accounted for 31% of the top 10 grosses) This tells a few interesting stories. One is that overall grosses are still below pre-covid years, for which I mostly blame a lack of huge releases in November/early December (THE MARVELS and WISH underperforming to the extent they did undeniably hurt this Top 10, as does DUNE 2 getting kicked to March). Two is that this was the first Christmas in a long time without a mega-tentpole release (AQUAMAN 2 was the only one with a mega-tentpole budget and its studio buried it for various reasons), yet 2023 still outperformed 2022 and 2021. Three is that Color Purple's share of the Top 10 this year was 30.9%, which is the smallest of any of these years. Shit was spread out this Christmas. That's phenomenal news for the overall health of theatres.
  5. Pretty much correct here. I don't think it's that complicated. We've been here since the 1950s, when the advent of television made the film industry try to make bigger and better stuff to compete. Hell, Walt Disney Animation has been here... how many times? In 1959 (when SLEEPING BEAUTY nearly bankrupted the studio and caused thousands of layoffs), from 1973 to 1981 (when nobody thought Disney could make a good movie after Walt's death and the brand was so tarnished that a greeting card company was about to buy all the characters, before Eisner/Katzenberg came in), from the late 90s to 2008 (when the Disney renaissance style became so unfashionable, every other new movie lost a hundred million dollars, and WDAS pivoted to garbage CG DreamWorks rip-offs, only to have Iger buy out Lasseter and "save" the brand)... and today. Brands rise and fall. WDAS is in an undeniable creative rut. I'm really curious how they get out of it, but you look at all these different WDAS eras and the answer always ended up finding a new kind of Disney animated movie that hit the zeitgeist. It's possible the Jennifer Lee era can still do that-- I do think the Pete Docter era of Pixar is slowly, surely figuring it out-- but WISH and LIGHTYEAR were projects conceived during the absolute height of franchise love and backdoor IP in 2018-2019, and they're not going to try anything like that again. Speaking a tiny bit from inside the industry, WDAS knows that the answer isn't just "FROZEN 3/TANGLED 2/etc." It doesn't mean those movies won't happen. But if the last 15 years have taught us anything, it's that IP and streaming won't save anybody (except Netflix... good job guys!). Making good shit that speaks to an audience will. They know this. Everyone here has pointed to the dozen perfectly-timed, probably unrepeatable elements that led to how BARBENHEIMER opened. But they made over 2 bil WW because they were good movies that people liked.
  6. You're gonna start seeing more and more articles like this every day. The AMPTP waited 100 days to negotiate on any of the WGA's proposed terms, because now that overall deals have been force majeured, the studios have saved a bit of development money and and fall TV season is upon us, they want the strike to be over ASAP, by whatever means necessary. So it doesn't matter if what the AMPTP is offering is vague enough that any studio could drive a truck through it-- they are now going to explicitly paint the writers' concerns with their dealpoints as perpetuating the hardship of others. It's disgusting and I hope people don't fall for it. The AMPTP can truly end this whenever they want to if they offer reasonable terms. https://variety.com/2023/film/news/tron-3-filming-shuts-down-150-crew-members-laid-off-strikes-1235696869/
  7. I want a Nolan WESTERN. His REVENANT or HIGH NOON or UNFORGIVEN. Three hours of OPPENHEIMER's Los Alamos magic hour lighting, captured on 70mm IMAX. How awesome would that be?
  8. Something feels broken in how PLF theaters get booked right now. Obviously IMAX and Dolby have become major components of theatrical marketing campaigns so I wouldn't expect Disney with its punitive attitude towards theater chains to suddenly relent on booking HAUNTED MANSON in Dolby... but it's obvious MANSION is gonna make a fraction in Dolby this weekend of what BARBIE would've made. It's also obvious that the average digital IMAX screen will make more off of OPPENHEIMER'S fourth weekend than an entire run of GRAN TURISMO or BLUE BEETLE. Here in LA, FLASH did basically zero business in its second weekend IMAX runs. Give those to SPIDERVERSE or even any older WB title and you get more business, even if you don't spend a cent to promote it.
  9. Hard to fast-track a film if writers and actors can't even take a meeting about it at the current moment 😉
  10. Anybody remember when HELLBOY 2 opened a week before DARK KNIGHT? Getting that vibe with DEAD RECKONING a bit. In fairness to Cruise, any of us would've bet on him outgrossing BARBIE at the beginning of summer-- and most of us would've bet on him outgrossing OPPY a week ago.
  11. Crazy that PASSION OF THE CHRIST's run would basically adjust to SUPER MARIO BROS. numbers, both domestically and overseas. But SOUND OF FREEDOM is pulling better weekend holds and summer weekends on top. Gotta imagine that PASSION 2 is gonna be for July of next year, right?
  12. Mega-weekend incoming, all thanks to two genuine auteurs, one making a toy commercial by way of Robert Altman's POPEYE, the other making a nuclear testing drama by way of Oliver Stone's JFK (the style part, not the conjecture part). For one shining moment... we live in a society again.
  13. Kind of impossible to understate how much COVID had to do with the budgets of these movies. Not just the tens of millions that insurance premiums and testing protocols would add, but any shutdown for productions of this scale balloons everything. DEAD RECKONING was the first major production to shut down due to COVID, over three years ago. No protocols to lean on. In classic MISSION form, the production had to make it up as they went. Obviously this isn't just COVID, either. DIAL OF DESTINY shut down for two months because Ford broke his shoulder. FAST X ate 10-15 mil from its director switch. Anybody on these boards saying "I would've just green-lit this movie at ___ budget" should probably understand there was never any intention for these budgets to climb as high as they did. ELEMENTAL is one of the few productions this summer COVID didn't really inflate the budget for. I would gauge the reason that every Pixar movie is reported to cost 175-200 mil is that's what it takes to keep the lights on there. The original contract Steve Jobs drew with Iger for Pixar had a loooot of indefinite provisions for certain resources and autonomy. There's a reason one of Iger's first announcements wasn't "Pixar movies will now cost ___ much less" but "Toy Story 5 is now happening," because the benefit of operating costs being so high at Pixar is that it costs basically the same for them to make an original film as a sequel. For me, the way to look at all this is the "long running franchise sequel" just doesn't have the same reward upon investment anymore for studios. FAST X spent over 100 million in above the line costs, the highest for any of those films. But if you're doing the 10th FAST & FURIOUS there's no way to bring that down. You either pay the 100 mil or you don't make the movie... and we're approaching the moment where the studios will consider just not making the movie. Famously ROGER RABBIT 2 never happened because Disney did the math and realized if the sequel had the exact level of success as the first, they'd barely break even because Spielberg and Zemeckis' deals were so lucrative. At that point, starting anew with something original is the far better option.
  14. Just a reminder than FALLOUT's Friday without previews was 16.8 million. ROGUE NATION's was 16.3. So I imagine by the end of this weekend it'll be where both of those movies were, plus 30 mil or so from the weekday shows. The consistency in this franchise is fascinating when you adjust for inflation. MISSIONS 5, 6, and 7 are all gonna end up at about the same amount of tickets sold opening week. No one whose interest in Cruise was revitalized by MAVERICK bothered to check out MISSION unless they were already invested in the series. That sucks, but in a summer where DC, INDIANA JONES and TRANSFORMERS are selling a fraction the number of tickets they used to, it could be worse...
  15. It's been pretty publicly reported now the extension in negotiations was agreed upon with the supposed notion of good faith towards making a deal, but was in hindsight designed so three of the major studios could keep promotion for their biggest summer tentpoles going. It's been less publicly reported that Hollywood CEOs bringing in a federal mediator at the last second was a failed attempt to keep negotiations going longer. Now the studios are arguing in bad faith that no negotiations can happen when the guild is on strike. The following is with Matt Belloni and SAG-AFTRA national director Duncan Crabtree-Ireland: "When do you think negotiations will re-start? Tomorrow?No, not tomorrow. I think it will happen eventually. I’m disappointed that when we said we were willing to continue talking, the companies said no and said it’s gonna be awhile before they’re ready to talk to us again.But you weren’t willing to extend the deadline again.That’s right. We extended for 12 days already. And, by the way, the only way any strike ever gets resolved is by the parties continuing to talk and eventually reaching a deal. So their idea that there won’t be any discussion while there’s a strike is completely ridiculous and unrealistic" I encourage everyone in this thread to focus on the human stakes at hand and aspirations for the AMPTP to come back to the table in good faith.
  16. It's real money but certainly inflated interest. Seen more than a few SOF screenings around here that didn't end up having nearly the attendance than the online block-booking suggested. There's certainly real interest in the movie, just hard to say how much is inflated by this whole "pay for a theoretical person's ticket" thing.
  17. ELEMENTAL just scored a better fourth weekend than COCO (9.949m), despite making 20 million less in its opening weekend...
  18. Which outcome occurs when Indy opens to 58.6 mil next weekend: 1. Existentialism across the industry over a financial model that leans on tired franchises 2. Calls for the death of theaters, despite every legacy studio pivoting away from streaming movies in the past 18 months 3. Placing more faith in the Barbie/Oppenheimer weekend which as far as one film's hype bolstering the other (and both looking like good movies people actually want to see) seems somewhat unprecedented 4. Tom Cruise calling people angrily about why Mission didn't open before July 4th 5. All of the above
  19. I'm fairly optimistic about No Hard Feelings getting solid walkups next weekend but it's likely we're looking at a June weekend where nothing hits 20 mil, which is kind of nuts... Spiderverse: 19.6 Flash: 18.5 Elemental: 17.3 No Hard Feelings: 17 Transformers 12 Asteroid City: 10
  20. I don't need to focus on my own dislike of this movie-- though I loved one film that Flash certainly feels indebted to (Endgame), and appreciated pieces of the other (No Way Home) a lot more after watching how much this film didn't work. But I will just share per my DC Fan Screening last night that I really don't think this is the huge crowd-pleasing word of mouth hit that it's been made out to be for the past few months. The Batman '89 nods and a few cameos near the end were the only thing to get any amount of reaction or applause-- the only reaction the movie got from a story or set-piece perspective was a fun sequence in the opening of the movie. Its fan service and cameos exist exclusively on a Leo pointing meme/guest star on a sitcom level of depth. Nothing here makes a fraction of the emotional sense as the use of Tobey and Andrew in NWH, and I'd already thought NWH's plot felt like it was written on a cocktail napkin. Even worse, the references this movie makes to other pieces of DC lore feels much more niche and exclusive to hardcore fans than stuff in the MCU does. Even Spider-Verse, which obviously pulls from the deepest bench of comic lore imaginable, does it in a comedic way that doesn't expect the view to do the rest of the homework themselves. As somebody who's followed all the DCEU chaos this last year (as well as the past eight), I felt so confused about what iteration of this universe we would exist in after this movie. Without spoiling, an audience member at the end of the post-credits scene yelled "THAT'S IT?" - and again, this was a DC Fan Screening event. There are likable jokes and moments throughout, but I have to imagine a walkup summer moviegoer just feeling deeply confused and fatigued by this movie.
  21. Maybe this is just me following this stuff for 15 years (christ) but I've never seen the climate both on these boards and in general trade reporting so concerned with using whatever statistics we have access to in proving what's doing "well" or not-- while at the same time, these statistics have never been less transparent to independent observers. The budgets reported for these tentpoles are always lies, all of these movies were mega-inflated by covid shutdowns over the past few years. At the same time studios post-covid are making an absolute killing on $25 VOD rentals, which we'll never see the full result of, and according to the people who theoretically lost money on movies (again, huge grain of salt) that 17-day window system is actually putting theatrical bombs like The Northman into the black. We used to get data about what was selling on VHS/DVD, now we don't. Little Mermaid, Spiderverse and Transformers all made an untold killing through merchandising and marketing tie-ins. There's never been more we don't know, in my opinion, and that's how the studios like to have it (also why industry creatives are striking this year). Some things that I personally think do matter are: when movies exceed their tracking (the stock uptick the Monday after opening weekend likely means as much to the studio as whatever the total theatrical profit will end up being), when these movies are actually well-liked by audiences, broader domestic and international trend shifts that demonstrate theatrical stability (Past Lives' performance this weekend makes me as optimistic as the success of Spiderverse, personally), and generally getting a sense of what people like and what's falling out of favor (which is why to me the superhero flops from earlier this year were genuinely kind of exciting, as if these movies actually have to be pretty good to do well now). But as far as "Transformers has to clear 500 because x is coming from y place and z is coming from"-- that all sort of feels like a waste of time to me? By all means, compare this new movie's performance to other Transformers movies and other summer tentpoles, but the landscape is different now, and what these companies actually value is different now, so... everyone should have more fun, I guess!
  22. If Vol. 3 follows Vol. 2 holds for the rest of its run, it gets to Vol. 1's unadjusted domestic total. The next few weekend holds if it kept pace with Vol. 2 would be: -47% against Fast X, -40% against Little Mermaid (w/inflated Sunday), -53% against Spiderverse. Those all seem reasonable to me...
  23. WGA member here. Just a note for whatever it's worth that the WGA negotiating committee is operating under lock and key. They've told members absolutely nothing about progress on negotiations. Any intel you hear (especially from somebody like Sneider, with respect) is absolutely not coming from our side. There's just no strategic benefit from the guild leaking anything to the press. So a rumor like Netflix being the holdout, if it's not made up, would be coming from someone with connections to the AMPTP... perhaps to undermine their solidarity, perhaps to undermine ours... who knows!
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.