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Posts posted by lilmac

  1. 11 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

    I know it is a completely different scenario, but I am keeping an eye on Man of Steel.  It was at 128.7 after its first weekend, and 210.1 after weekend #2.  It should be at the same mark of 210 after weekend #2.  There could be a chance it finishes at 291 like MOS but I certainly hope not!  This is the one thing that has been distracting me from 300M thinking.

    IT has the advantage of superior WOM. It's a phenomenon at this point. 


    $310-330m final DOM

    • Like 3

  2. 11 hours ago, jayr said:


    But the numbers for SW will stop counting by the time it reaches 12am by Jan. 2018. So if you predict SW will have 725m dom, it is possible only 500 will be counted and the other 225 will be for 2018. Just a thought. So it will be really close. 

    It's amazing to me that in the last 10 years Disney has only come out on top once (2016). I once assumed they were dominant this whole time (except for 2015 when Universal had that banner year). Just once.  


    The future is bright, regardless, when you own properties the likes of Marvel, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Disney animation and Disney live action. 

  3. 6 hours ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:


    I don't know what lesson you can take from this.  I mean, how do you replicate it.


    Stephen King films have never set the box office on fire.  This one bucked that trend.

    September is usually a barren (see what I did there....lol) wasteland for films.  IT bucked that trend.

    WB never in their wildest dreams could see this coming, hence the miniscule budget.  IT bucked all box office trends


    Yes, the trailer caught on.  But no one saw that coming.


    The point is, I'm not sure what kind of lesson is here.  80's and 90's nostalgia sells?  But that's not always true either.  You can find a litany of remakes that didn't catch on.  Footloose, Vacation and pick most horror remakes.  So the lesson here is that the more we think we know about the film business, the more the universe extends its middle finger to us.


    Audience: we liked IT because it was a well crafted movie


    Hollywood: they want more Stephen King movies

    • Like 2
    • Haha 2

  4. 7 hours ago, baumer said:


    This is going to easily have the best multiplier for a modern day super hero film.  Obviously you can't compare films from the pre-internet era but starting with 2002, Spider-man, this is going to eclipse that, quite handily.  Which is pretty incredible.



    Title (click to view) Lifetime gross Opening weekend Multiplier WW Matching Multiplier
    Guardians of the Galaxy $333,176,600 $94,320,883 3.53 $364,722,774
    Spider-Man $403,706,375 $114,844,116 3.52 $362,955,269
    The Dark Knight $534,858,444 $158,411,483 3.38 $348,616,906
    Wonder Woman $346,644,475 $103,251,471 3.36                           n/a
    Iron Man $318,412,101 $98,618,668 3.23 $333,370,126
    Marvel's The Avengers $623,357,910 $207,438,708 3.01 $310,272,956
    The Dark Knight Rises $448,139,099 $160,887,295 2.79 $287,598,975
    Deadpool $363,070,709 $132,434,639 2.74 $283,064,801




    Title / Domestic Gross / OW  / Multiplier / What Wonder Woman would have grossed with that film's multiplier

    • Like 3

  5. 7 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:


    But that's effectively meaningless. If you limit the only criteria of the project to whether the director has a track record in overseas grosses, you're ignoring all the other factors at play. Rodriguez doesn't... but Rodriguez has a career of largely playing in his own sandbox directing lower budget films. What that track record has shown is that he knows how to run a set, supposedly without any drama. That's all that's really required of him. If he and the team put together an enjoyable experience, the track record won't matter... and if they don't, well... the track record won't matter. It's literally a non factor.



    That's like saying, if Robert Rodriguez puts together an enjoyable movie that will appeal to the masses in a way that compels them to take out their pocketbooks then the track record doesn't matter.


    Well, of course but we're speculating and all I have to go off of is a track record (both the financial performance and overall reception to his films). Half of the MCU directors had track records filled with smaller films yet their MCU movies have done well and are likely very profitable. I look forward to being pleasantly surprised.

  6. For what many expect will be one of the highest grossing movies in the history of film ($700m+), there doesn't seem to be a lot of buzz surrounding Episode 8.  In fact, my spidey sense is up on Episode VIII although I can't pinpoint why. I had it even before the OK trailer (I say this as a huuuuge SW fan).



    Some possible reasons (I could be totally wrong and the hype is indeed, real):


    1. Like Avatar, the cultural shockwaves from TFA didn't last long. The film didn't "stick" with people and TLJ suffers for it

    2. Relatively tepid reaction to the first trailer

    3. Less hype because it is a sequel to a movie that came out only 1.5 yrs ago at this point (Rogue One even sooner) 

    4. Somewhat related to #3 but possible franchise fatigue



    Hope my vague concerns are misplaced and we see a 90% RT score and $800m DOM

  7. 1 minute ago, DamienRoc said:

    I doubt Robert Rodriguez is going to be a factor in the box office one way or the other.


    What's going to sell this is largely going to be whether it looks and feels exciting and somewhat different. I think there's a lot of potential there. Two things could really stand out there. The first is Motorball, which could really give a sense of speed and carnage. Think Rollerball, but good.


    The second is any fight where Alita really brings out the Panzer Kunst. Her fighting style is all about taking on opponents who are larger than her, so in the series there are several fights against absolutely gigantic characters. It could get into some Shadows of the Colossus type of situations which could really look amazing on the screen. (Especially if there's IMAX in play.)


    I wasn't talking about RR as a draw but his directing. His ability to make a successful profitable $200m movie. The bolded text is exactly the point. Besides Sin City, he doesn't have a track record of delivering on those things AND drawing in large mainstream audiences.

  8. 10 hours ago, cannastop said:

    Got a feeling that this is going to disappoint. Maybe it won't reach $100m.


    Me too. The first one was "cute" and something new. Warner Bros. (and all the non-Disney studios) are furiously chomping at the bit for any new cash cows that they overindulged (two back to back spinoffs and a sequel in 2019), thinking that they had a lucrative tentpole for years to come. Ninjago will struggle to reach $150m dom

    • Like 1

  9. 3 hours ago, Kingp0va said:

    is the budget seriously 200m??? wtf, this looks like a bomb. under 100m WW


    Just noticed that as well. You beat me to the punch. In the hands of James Cameron, sure. Maybe. 


    I think this will have to do well internationally to make a profit though Robert Rodriguez's track record is not looking good there either: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Director&id=robertrodriguez.htm

  10. On 5/21/2017 at 2:37 AM, Noodlebug said:

    Here's the general downward trend of the Spidey franchise so far


    SM1 (2002): $403,706,375

    SM2 (2004): $373,585,825

    SM3 (2007): $336,530,303

    TASM1 (2012): $262,030,663

    TASM2 (2014): $202,853,933


    This is one of those interesting franchises where despite ticket price inflation and 3D surcharges, each successive film has done less than the previous. SM3's poor reception definitely plays a role in TASM's major drop as well as it being a reboot that the general public wasn't really asking for. The following sequel continued to prove that audience fatigue had clearly taken over this franchise in the states.


    Originally, based on my own personal lack of hype towards Homecoming as well as my own perception of public hype, I was going to make this club under TASM2, but after researching various tracking sites, many seem poised to pin it at around 130M+ for the opening weekend. Plus, the MCU tie in will make this more marketable than the Andrew Garfield reboot, so this will at least reverse the downward trend for the time being.


    So my bold prediction is that this will sail past TASM2 and most likely TASM1 as well. However, there's a 70M+ hurdle before it reaches the heights of SM3. While it's clear that this film is more hyped than I originally thought, I still think franchise fantigue as well as this being the second reboot in only five years will hurt it's chances. Therefore, I believe Sam Raimi's trilogy won't be touched anytime soon, at least not this time around.


    Homecoming should look something like 120M/300M domestic. Who's IN?



    I think you're right. About $300m domestic. I sense a bit of franchise fatigue with the Spidey character although it will do leaps and bounds beyond what a TASM 3 would have done with the same cast and Sony.

    • Like 1

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