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Posts posted by lilmac

  1. On 7/7/2018 at 9:16 PM, AndyLL said:

    Not really...


    There are 7.442 billion in the world.  Half that is 3.721 billion.  


    So it is 3 out of 3.721 billion. 


    If truly random proximity to each other should have no bearing of the probability.

    Hmmm but it is still a 50% chance for each individual, no matter where they are to disappear. The chances that all 3 will be part of that 3.721 billion is 1/8. 

  2. Black Panthers long slog to the next milestone reminds me of Vanilla Sky.


    Greatest Showman. Hahaha. I’d love for it to stay in theaters until week 52. Also, 11 more weeks and it’ll match Titanic. Do it!


    $210m is more than enough to justify a 3rd Ant Man film. You have a successful sub-franchise. Close it out with a trilogy. Guaranteed money. The biggest issue by then will be where to schedule it in among stablemates like Disney live-action, Disney animation, Pixar, Indy 5, Star Wars TBD, other MCU films, Fox Marvel, Avatar, and other Fox tentpoles.

  3. @Jake Gittes @Premium George  I like this one:


    The Phantom Menace Will Never Beat Titanic's Box Office. Here's why:

    6/1/99Chris Pierson

    In article <37eeff86....@news.earthlink.net>,
    Nimrod <nim...@earthlink.net> wrote:
    >So you're telling us why more folks went to see TITANIC than will go
    >see THE PHANTOM MENACE, right?  You've told us why you think
    >one will be more popular than the other, right?  In other words,
    >this is a popularity contest, right?
    >Well, by those standards one or two things must be made very clear....
    >The biggest box office film of all time is GONE WITH THE WIND.
    >It has sold more tickets than any other movie.
    >The original STAR WARS is in second place, far ahead of TITANIC.
    >Only a fool fails to take inflation into account when measuring 
    >box office success.

    Of course, to be fair, one should take into account that, when GWTW was
    out, entertainment options were much more limited than they are today. No
    TV, no VCRs, no net, no video games, etc. It was pretty much books,
    theater and radio. Would GWTW have been _as_ successful if there had been
    as many diversions in its time as there are today? No. Would it have still
    been up there? Probably, but not at #1, given that Star Wars, which had
    much more competition, is less than $100 million behind it in the
    adjusted-for-inflation list.

    The problem is, the whole box office issue is _way_ too muddy to make many
    genuine, empirical statements about how "successful" a film is.
    Chris Pierson ** "Now my body is in tumult. It is a colossal moment of joy. 
                  **  I would like to be Jupiter and kidnap everybody and lie
    Author              **  down in the firmament making love to everybody."
    Game Designer **  -- Roberto Benigni, Best Actor & World's Most Exuberant Man




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  4. https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!overview


    type in the search ‘tnd vs titanic’ (my fave) or ‘titanic boxoffice 1997’ or ‘phantom menace boxoffice’ or ‘sixth sense boxoffice’ or whatever you want to search for. 



    I had no idea during the 1990s that these communities existed. At the time I frequented a couple of actual online forums. The Apollo 13 threads, in particular, really resonate with me as that was the first film that inspired my interest and that I started tracking.   

    • Thanks 2

  5. On 6/28/2018 at 10:54 PM, Barnack said:


    Maybe it feature Johnson & Chin Han in a movie set in China, I would imagine it should do $75m+ there. That and Red Notice is maybe putting a lot on Rawson Marshall Thurber, so quality is really up in the air, but we can assume they made the project easiest as possible, with low ambition and a big landing strip for big emotion that should be achievable to land on audience to work. The concept is a proven one and a favorite of the human deep biology.


    $125M would be exactly the same net production budget than Matt Damon Elysium, to give a rough idea of what a studio could expect to make (and what they could want to do with that type of movie), we can look at that one.


    At a $125.63m net cost Sony expected to break even at $219.9m worldwide (91.6b dbo / 128.3 intl), I think this can safely reach that. If Johnson is on profit participation and not frist gross dollar deal (and that the case for Red Notice), depending if they are a co-production with higher rentention rate or 25% in China, this project break even point could be around that 220-255m.


    Profit expected at with the corresponding ROI

    240m WW (100/140): 16m (5.2%)

    264m WW (110/154): 27m (8.2%)

    288m WW (120/168): 37m (10.7%)

    300m WW (125/175): 42m (11.7%)

    312m WW (130/182): 48m (12.8%)

    336m WW (140/196): 58m (14.7%)

    360m WW (150/210): 71m (16.8%)

    420m WW (175/245): 95m (19.8%)


    They judged a good return for the capital spent was of 15.5% (around 350m WW) and expected the movie to do 300m.


    If it is remotely good (say 5/10 or more reception) and has extreme crowd pleasing has it seem to be, I think it should easily work.

    Does the $125m include marketing though? Also, sometimes distribution deals can offset costs


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