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lilmac

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  1. 12 hours ago, Factcheck said:

    This site saying that it will do 100M+ profit by assuming that it will have 150M+ revenue in home entertainment. But Blu-ray and DVD sales of MCU movies have been down by 80% since Disney+'s launch. So its total home entertainment revenue won't be more than $50 million, as why would people spend money on DVD and PVOD when it is available on SVOD for free? So yes, it may actually go into loss if the total budget with P&A is 450M and if it makes 150M in TV rights instead of 200M.

    I have issues with that site’s calculation of breakeven points. Some of what I see doesn’t make sense to me. I wonder what they are basing profit points off of. 
     

  2. On 1/14/2023 at 4:12 AM, Factcheck said:

    If this report of WF's $450M budget with P&A is correct, then it may go into loss; whether it makes profit or not will depend upon how much money it makes through TV rights.
    Budget with P&A 450M
    video cost 60m
    interest 40M
    participations 45M
    residuals 30M
    Total cost 625M

    Revenue-
    Dom cut 235M
    OS cut 156M
    TV rights: 150-200M
    home entertainment 50M
    Total revenue 590-640M

    Profit or loss: -35M/+15M

    If the $450m number is accurate the production will make a profit with about a billion in WW theatrical grosses (assuming the studios take smaller cuts from OS boxoffice revenue streams per usual). Ancillary incomes will augment the take home $. 

  3. https://www.thefilmik.com/is-avatar-2-hit-or-flop-is-avatar-way-of-water-headed-for-box-office-success/

    Found a site specializing in production budget reporting….Avatar 2 numbers 

    $800M spent on production + prints and advertising

     

    $1.3B break even point 

     

    Costs probably don’t count the several years of research and development 

    • Like 3
  4. TWOW's legs are in between that of a typical blockbuster (BB) and Avatar/Titanic (A/T).

     

    Let's say TGM is 0.8 differential of A/T (or 1.2 differential of BB)

    .....then TWOW is probably 0.7 A/T

     

    (totally made up math here)

     

     

    But that's great since the only movies with greater than 1.0 A/T differentials are films like My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Blair Witch which are more like 1.5 A/T and 1.2 A/T respectively.

     

     

  5. 9 hours ago, upriser7 said:

    Packers lose, America wins. Great result to cap off the day

    Huge fan of Aaron Rodgers, especially after the last couple of years so boo. LOL

     

     

    Regarding the boxoffice, don't be alarmed folks if Monday sees sharper than expected drops. Plenty of time to recover especially with MLK weekend around the corner. 

  6. “Sources have told Variety that “Avatar: The Way of Water’s” break-even point was set at roughly $1.4 billion, a figure the movie has already crossed”


    @Barnack - can we backtrack that into a total production cost number. $700m perhaps. 
     

    https://variety.com/2023/film/news/james-cameron-avatar-2-turn-profit-box-office-1235480925/

  7. The boxoffice is returning to normalcy. The first regular boxoffice year since 2019.

     

    Still, when you look at the films in the #5-10 spot on a given weekend, there are still way more sub-$1M grosses than what we saw pre-2020. Before 2020, the #10 movie on any weekend was around $3M (that's been the case since the 1990s actually)

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