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Posts posted by lilmac
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-So happy for Jesus Revolution
-Avatar still on track to beat IW.
-I don’t think GOTG3 will suffer the same fate as AntMan 3. It’s a higher tier franchise and I don’t see Gunn dropping the ball.
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Will the countdown be here or on a new thread? :-)
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12 hours ago, Factcheck said:
This site saying that it will do 100M+ profit by assuming that it will have 150M+ revenue in home entertainment. But Blu-ray and DVD sales of MCU movies have been down by 80% since Disney+'s launch. So its total home entertainment revenue won't be more than $50 million, as why would people spend money on DVD and PVOD when it is available on SVOD for free? So yes, it may actually go into loss if the total budget with P&A is 450M and if it makes 150M in TV rights instead of 200M.
I have issues with that site’s calculation of breakeven points. Some of what I see doesn’t make sense to me. I wonder what they are basing profit points off of.
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On 1/14/2023 at 4:12 AM, Factcheck said:
If this report of WF's $450M budget with P&A is correct, then it may go into loss; whether it makes profit or not will depend upon how much money it makes through TV rights.
Budget with P&A 450M
video cost 60m
interest 40M
participations 45M
residuals 30M
Total cost 625MRevenue-
Dom cut 235M
OS cut 156M
TV rights: 150-200M
home entertainment 50M
Total revenue 590-640MProfit or loss: -35M/+15M
If the $450m number is accurate the production will make a profit with about a billion in WW theatrical grosses (assuming the studios take smaller cuts from OS boxoffice revenue streams per usual). Ancillary incomes will augment the take home $.
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I’m having fun counting another man’s (Cameron) money.
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https://www.thefilmik.com/is-avatar-2-hit-or-flop-is-avatar-way-of-water-headed-for-box-office-success/
Found a site specializing in production budget reporting….Avatar 2 numbers$800M spent on production + prints and advertising
$1.3B break even point
Costs probably don’t count the several years of research and development
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Ant Man 3 budget
https://www.thefilmik.com/ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-budget/
$200m budget before P&A (prints and advertising)
Black Panther 2 budget
https://www.thefilmik.com/is-black-panther-wakanda-forever-hit-or-flop-hows-the-sequel-performed-at-box-office/
$450M with P&A
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Porthos - Blue check here. I got you covered. Just say the word.
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Love this thread Baumer made back in the day
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TWOW's legs are in between that of a typical blockbuster (BB) and Avatar/Titanic (A/T).
Let's say TGM is 0.8 differential of A/T (or 1.2 differential of BB)
.....then TWOW is probably 0.7 A/T
(totally made up math here)
But that's great since the only movies with greater than 1.0 A/T differentials are films like My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Blair Witch which are more like 1.5 A/T and 1.2 A/T respectively.
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9 hours ago, upriser7 said:
Packers lose, America wins. Great result to cap off the day
Huge fan of Aaron Rodgers, especially after the last couple of years so boo. LOL
Regarding the boxoffice, don't be alarmed folks if Monday sees sharper than expected drops. Plenty of time to recover especially with MLK weekend around the corner.
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“Sources have told Variety that “Avatar: The Way of Water’s” break-even point was set at roughly $1.4 billion, a figure the movie has already crossed”
@Barnack - can we backtrack that into a total production cost number. $700m perhaps.
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/james-cameron-avatar-2-turn-profit-box-office-1235480925/
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Mario has wider appeal than Sonic and Pokemon, especially when taking into account the older audience. It's just a bigger audience. I see $300-400m domestic if the film is at least 70% RT score equivalent in quality.
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James Cameron returns to the King of the World throne. How does he do it?? LOL
Avatar: The Way of Water (Domestic)
From Boxoffice Pro:
Weekend #
Gross
All-time ranking
1
$134.1M
#37
2
$63.3M
#30
3
$67.4M
#3
4
$45.0M
#2 (American Sniper went wide in its 4th wknd, not counting it)
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The boxoffice is returning to normalcy. The first regular boxoffice year since 2019.
Still, when you look at the films in the #5-10 spot on a given weekend, there are still way more sub-$1M grosses than what we saw pre-2020. Before 2020, the #10 movie on any weekend was around $3M (that's been the case since the 1990s actually)
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I never understood how people submit late when the deadline was known for months. Haha. That triggers me. LOL.
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36 minutes ago, mikeymichael said:
brother lilmac, i remember you from the BoxOfficeReport forum days! Loooooong time ago, LOL.
Lol! Good times tracking the LOTR movies and TPM/AOTC. How are ya!????
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17 hours ago, IronJimbo said:
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it's the box office billie for me
I popularized that term (‘multiplier’) in the early days of online boxoffice prognostications (late 90s). I saw it take it off from there and spread to the Boxoffice Reports forums and then BOM. Borrowed it from the college Econ classes I was taking. Lol
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6 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:
Imagine a $7m Thursday with this projected multiplier 😲
I love seeing continued use of the world multiplier with respect to boxoffice predictions. My only claim to fame in life (long story). 😁- 1
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Me in 2009: He did it again!
Me in 2022/2023: He did it again!
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Cameron has cracked the boxoffice code.
The Top 50 of STAR WARS - A Countdown | countdown is complete #1 on page 8
in List and Countdowns
Posted
TLJ should be in the top 5. Period.
😄