I just don't think Avatar has the stickiness that mega-cult franchises like Star Wars have retained over the years. I've heard people talk disparagingly about the film ('blue people', ferngully/dancing with wolves, etc) years later. I am just skeptical that it has a mass following. The more I think about it, I think $500m is ridiculously high. What made those weekend drops so low was the novelty factor. Avatar 2 will be big but $400-500m big. Again, I loved it. Saw it 6x in theaters. I am not a hater, just a realist.