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MattW

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  1. https://deadline.com/2024/03/godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire-box-office-projection-1235860199/
  2. Out of curiosity I asked what chatgpt thought GxK would open to Not all that interesting, but it did come up with something close to what BOT is collectively thinking right now, maybe a touch higher.
  3. Enjoyed it very much but couldn’t help wondering, how does Jessica Ferguson and her little riding coach get off the worm when they get to their destination?
  4. Based on the B&T thread I'd guess the true Thursday number is slightly under 10m and they rounded up. I'm feeling like it'll end up high 70s total through Sunday, 77-80m. Quite good.
  5. Some GxK talk in the buzz and tracking thread, count me with those not really feeling this one. The trailer makes it look like it’s jumped the shark to me. I’ll guess this opens on a similar level as Godzilla vs Kong, 40-45m
  6. Feb 360, not great bob. Incidentally Bob Marley saved the month by overperforming (at least by my own expectations). March I'll say about 650: 120 from holdovers 200 Dune 180 for the March 8th releases 40 for the March 15th releases 50 for the March 22nd releases, I'm not feeling much for ghostbusters, but I know many other are so we'll see. Godzilla and Kong manage to squeeze their OW into the month, maybe 50m.
  7. Probably has been noted elsewhere but it did $754k the first Sunday, $1.764k 2nd Sunday, and $2.516 third. With around a million today leading into the weekend and the holiday on Monday there's a chance it could actually increase again on the 4th Sunday. I'm looking for a good comp but not really finding any, would need +135% Friday +60% Saturday -20% Sunday to hit $3m this Sunday. Those bumps are probably too big for a rated R movie, but not impossible. Nevermind, only 3 increasing sundays.
  8. Continuing with the month by month predictions I'll say Jan - $400m Feb - $350m Mar - $550m Looking at the year as a whole I think it's an open question if it can match 2022's total. In fact if China does as well this year as it did last year then 2024 could be the year that China passes the Domestic market.
  9. Comscore says 2023 did in fact hit $9 billion, another example of mojo not quite capturing the entire market, only 99% of it. In spite of there not being a halo movie over the holiday period 2023's december total is higher than 2022's, $735-740m vs $680m, though it was still only ~63% of the previous December average. Looking at the list of December releases makes 2023 look pretty solid though, 2-5 did quite a bit better than the last 2 years, and 6-25 is very close to the previous average December: Month total #1 movie #s 2-5 #s 6-12 #s 13-25 Rest 2023 ~740 133.6 229.4 216 127.1 33.9 % of month 18.1 31 29.2 17.2 4.6 2022 677.9 401 181.3 65.3 21.3 9 % of month 59.2 26.7 9.6 3.1 1.3 2021 923.2 573 182.9 114.1 42.6 10.6 % of month 62.1 19.8 12.4 4.6 1.1 2019 1148.2 390.7 470.5 174.1 82.9 30 2018 1071.7 199.1 369 288.6 168.8 46.2 2017 1325 517.2 385 237.2 156.6 29 2016 1189.6 408.2 384.7 225.9 139.4 31.4 2016-2019 Avg 1183.6 378.8 402.3 231.5 136.9 34.1 % of month 32 34 19.6 11.6 2.9 2023 was reasonably representative of the prepandemic level with the #1 halo movie left off. If a 300-400m grossing movie was added on top of everything else that's a normal December in the before-times, but I'm sure we all recognize the market wouldn't have been able to handle that, the rest of the movies would very likely have suffered.
  10. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-2024-lag-behind-2023-1235765702/ 2024 might be the year. Personally I think US+Canada will come in much closer to 2022's level than THR and DL are saying, and if so this could be the big one!
  11. Something I come back to every winter is comparing different holiday schedules to see how much of an advantage/disadvantage it can give. So a few days ago I looked at it again and took a few ratios of the holiday period compared to days before and after, and really the only hard conclusion is that the legs of the movie matter more than the holiday schedule. I suspect Christmas/NY day on Thursday is the best schedule but looking at individual movies I can’t really prove it. Christmas Eve on Sat is obviously the worst but again a movie with that schedule and good legs will do better than a movie with a good schedule and bad legs, eg rogue one and SW9.
  12. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-forecast-2024-2025-movies-1235757052/ Ah, so that's where Ray Subers went.
  13. https://www.theinsneider.com/p/andre-braugher-dead-tribute-leonardo-dicaprio-movie-critic-rick-dalton-dune-2-trailer Interesting.
  14. The holiday run looks like it'll be better than I was thinking, but there were too many other Nov/Dec to make up for so the year will end up a bit under 9b, almost 80% of the previous average. Back in early 2022 I was thinking ~70% would be the new normal so this is better than that at least. Next year will drop for sure, with 2025 benefitting. So the goal for the next two years together should be at least 18b.
  15. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/box-office-estimates-2024-2025-cut-analyst-1235667892/ Before the strikes I didn't think 2024 would be better than 2023, I thought at best it would come close. A bit premature but 2025's schedule does look pretty good, and if it gets to the 10b neighborhood that'd be quite the feat.
  16. Not sure how big a contributor this is but for me bringing the tv characters into the movies makes the movie seem cheaper, like a made for tv movie. Ever since the shield show it seemed clear to me the tv characters wouldn't work in the movies. And they kept them out for the most part. But that could be mostly just me.
  17. What do Saturday presales look like and will walkups be slightly better... Down 10% from Friday is 32, Sunday down a normal 30% is 23 or so. Yeah, I'm thinking joker keeps the October crown.
  18. September 471.7, 72% of the prepandemic avg about 650-660. Summer 19% over 2022, 6% under the previous average. YTD we're at 25% over 2022, 18% under the average. Rest of the year looks much better than it did just a month ago, but I still don't see it bringing up the YTD average, I'll guess 2023 ends up just north of 9 billion.
  19. Dec 1 seems like a weird release date, every other post thanksgiving release has done quite poorly. Maybe this is the one that breaks the mold though, who knows.
  20. I read this as saying the theater playing the movie gets 43%, the 57% likely mostly goes to Swift but AMC gets part of that by playing distributor. So AMC overall will get more than 43%, but cinemark for example will only get 43% of the shows it has.
  21. It's interesting that Friday is so far just 'opening night', not a full day of shows. Will be a bit like Thursday previews but being Friday I'd guess relatively bigger, maybe more like a July thurs previews. Being Oct theaters likely have somewhat more staffing issues with kids being in school and that might explain the weekend only scheduling. Or is it the swift team that specified weekends only? A lot of curiosities here.
  22. August will come in at about 810m, basically at the prepandemic average level which was about 850. Summer season I think ends up just a touch over 4 billies, about 18% higher than last summer and 7% under the before-times average of ~4.3b
  23. I think doing half price would be a better balance for ncd, premium screens still get their due while regular screen matinees are mostly in the same $3-4 range.
  24. Superman legacy under superman returns Dom and ww is my guess. Club coming soon
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