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stfletch

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About stfletch

  • Birthday 07/15/1980

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  1. Third weekend was a steep fall because last Monday was a holiday so presumably Sunday was inflated. My guess is the drop next weekend will be considerably less than 60%.
  2. Still feeling pretty confident in my Dom under TFA and WW over Avatar prediction for that club.
  3. Final Update of my table showing Fandango Pulse Sales of 2nd Weekend Factor between AEG vs AIW as of Thursday-End. I would have updated to including Friday numbers and made updated estimates for Saturday and Sunday through the weekend but... Pulse went down AGAIN. So this is what we have.... 2019-04-22 2019-04-23 2019-04-24 2019-04-25 MON TUE WED THU 2019-04-26 FRI 3.06 2.30 1.62 1.41 2019-04-27 SAT 3.08 2.49 1.77 1.60 2019-04-28 SUN 3.45 2.77 2.01 1.80 The factors seem to drop about 10% further going into last days or so I'm gonna drop the Sat and Sun number a little correspondingly to get final "day before" factors of: FRI 1.41 SAT 1.60 x 0.9 = 1.44 SUN 1.80 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 1.45 Which if we apply to the Infinity War 2nd Weekend totals we get: AIW Factor AEG Est. FRI $31,456,749 x 1.41 = $44,342,675 SAT $46,676,705 x 1.44 = $67,044,891 SUN $36,644,356 x 1.45 = $53,282,680 TOTAL $114,777,810 $164,670,245 I think this should be pretty close to the weekend total, but we'll see. Friday value seems to be pretty close to the early estimates from @RtheEnd and @Charlie Jatinder are giving us which gives me confidence this presale comparison to AIW is pretty indicative.
  4. Factor of Fandango Pulse pre-sale units between AEG and AIW as of end of Monday and end of Tuesday. Factor is coming down because AIW was able to increase a lot more in relative terms from a much lower level. By Thursday night, the factor might give us a reasonable estimate by comparing to AIW 2nd weekend. 2019-04-22 2019-04-23 MON TUE 2019-04-26 FRI 3.06 2.30 2019-04-27 SAT 3.08 2.49 2019-04-28 SUN 3.45 2.77
  5. I tried comparing Fandango Pulse Sales for this weekend against both AIW second weekend and AEG first weekend, similar to how did things for the first weekend. Unfortunately neither method gave sensible numbers (the former estimates way too high because AEG 2nd weekend presales are so much higher than AIW 2nd weekend presales and the later estimates way too low because the presales were so much higher for AEG first weekend than this weekend). Oh well at least the estimate tell me it will fall somewhere between $21M and $366M! lol
  6. I remember the BOM forum days! I used to post there quite a bit. Then I stopped tracking BO for a bit and when I got back into it, there was no forum, just the main site. Took me a while to find this site and a lot of familiar faces had transposed over. Whatever happened to the BOM forum?
  7. Insane numbers. I know its unlikely but if it hits the top end of that range, that's $400M I'm just 4 days!!
  8. LOL yeah remember that, and the one I did in Brazil forum astronaut on moon with I think holding a beer and looking at earth in the distance and I put something like, forget everything that had come before and everything you've ever known. Something to that effect  Someone mentioned @RtheEnd's last super kick post earlier in the thread and he replied about it. Hope this doesn't mean it's only an 82 Sunday!!
  9. I just realized that the amount Endgame Actuals end up being above Estimates could be larger that the 2nd place finisher! Its basically reduced all the other movies weekend box office totals to rounding errors, lol.
  10. Less than 3 hours till I see Endgame for the first time! Currently grabbing a quick lunch and then hope to be in line 2 hours before the start. Damn you non-reserved seating!
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