Lightyear is under performing because Disney themselves, by way of the ridiculous Disney+ releases, have both destroyed the prestige of the Pixar brand and made countless consumers believe they are no longer theatrical experiences to begin with. Most parents likely see no reason to take their kids to see Lightyear in theaters as they know it will be on the streaming platform ASAP, and as mentioned on a previous page many who know it is in theaters this weekend believe it's also debuting on Disney+ this weekend.
The likely disappointing opening weekend is not indicative of anything else, and thus this continued hand wringing over the alleged death of movie theaters is ridiculous. This year a $15 million Channing Tatum movie about a Dog topped $61 million domestically, the 5th Scream movie more than doubled its predecessor's gross, the first sequel to a film from 1986 and that stars a man that hasn't made a dent outside of his signature established franchise over the last decade is sitting at $800 million globally and by early Spring 2023 the release schedule will be as stacked as it was pre-COVID.
Theaters are in full recovery mode, and that isn't changing.