narniadis

Not for your hopes... its going to open around 10m maybe and presales show it.

Maybe we should compare its run to National Treasure 2? Obviously many differences and that film opened way closer to Christmas proper but the range would work.

Yup. Inflation wise its what the 80-90m camp used to be a decade ago and that arena is much closer to the 65-75 camp. Seems like a no mans land for films that cant quite make it to a bigger audience

Under 40m will make 200m a tough play overall barring a surprise. *sigh* really want to see it hit 50m. Rest of their forcast looks pretty good all things considered. The 100-115 camp is crowded this year.

I would love to know who the bullish predictors are with 60m.... not even bop is that bullish. Would love to see it happen, just dont see how it can.

I will gladly declare you a nostradamus and best predictor but it isnt happening.

Its not a matter of thinking its a good or bad film, its understanding how box-office works this time of year. a 5.5 multi this time of year is great and upper-end for a film that opens like we are hoping for Jumanji to do on the upper side. Very rarely do we end up with weird performances such as 2017 when Jumanji and The Greatest Showman were the exception but nowhere close to the norm. Being a fairly new poster here I don't know what your box-office knowledge is like, so I suggest taking a look at major release performance over the December/January frames the past 15 years and you will see all of this as it stands in actual data.

Tracking has it between 40 and 60 as BoxofficePro also indicates and they have it at 44m for OW so far which is consistent with the data available.

Bumblebee would be a bad comp - more than likely, could be surprised but you are talking a spin off of a dead franchise with a reviled failure of a last film. Very different set of circumstances and Bumblebee at least made up for it in the legs. Spidey also would be / was more frontloaded than normal. Would be hoping for at least 12x the preview #.

Yes and I can understand/ see that. Its when we actually use FK as a comparison point and it still doesnt match the 300m+ crowd that they ignore the data. Hence why I keep using the 250m mark. Its a solid middle of the road obtainable gross if it opens high enough. But as a legit sequel and not a remake it will not come close to pulling the same legs as Jumanji 17 - a factor that is being blatantly ignored. As for China, it was shocking due to the fact that expectations where originally higher and then it couldn't keep up to even lowered ones. Our markets really arent similar enough to make across the board comparisons but it should give pause to all sides.

I love the attitude that assumes some of us only looked at China.... sigh the non data people on BOT always gotta assume they are right 🤦‍♂️

Its my high hopes for sure, but it doing 250m isnt a failure by any stretch

It is both equal and not equal, hence why I pulled in TFA so you could have same set up for comparison. TLJ in addition to being a word of mouth problem also opened too early for a good comparison. RoS is going to hold well, but do to size, previews and the calendar it will not have crazy hold like TT or DOS since its not the same. A movie in weekend 3 behaves very very differently over Christmas than the films in week 1 or 2, it just cannot be helped unless it ends up being a freak of nature ala Titanic or Avatar or Christmas eve falls during the weekend which causes the New Year's weekend to look even better. None of these are applicable to ROS. Not being negative mind you, but trying to show how things play out. Also for one or more to argue for a much better hold when even TFA couldnt pull it, it shows a lack of willingness to understand or accept the data for what the data is. If any film should have had a magical hold it was TFA.

Yup your estimates are a decent way of looking at it. A 3.2x from 190 is 608m which means it recovered some TLJ leg wise but not enough to beat it in gross. We ultimately wont know until we see how it plays out and a lot of that is hinged on the opening, but I would love to see weekend 2 get close to 100m.

Sadly not. I was off in my calendar thinking the really strong hold for Smaug on the 27-29th (-8%) was its 3rd weekend. The comparison would be only somewhat more accurate if you looked at the big drop it had on the 20-22nd (-57%). TROS is going to only be in weekend 2 and it will face the lack of previews inflating the weekend. It will be fortunate to maintain a -45 to -50% drop. If you look at TFA, its weekend 2 hold was just barely under -40% and that was solely due to Christmas falling on the Friday. Its 2 days earlier for ROS which wont benefit the 2nd weekend at all. Its going to make crazy money during the weekdays, but it will still drop a ton on weekend.