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About narniadis

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  • Birthday 06/19/1987

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  1. To be frank the whole argument boils down to those disappointed it didn't get to 100m - still not doubling. 90m was also a pipe dream based on the data, but a much more obtainable one. However, I am done on this subject - rational facts cannot make headway with those who are bent on being emotional about it. (I chuckled at your "flat" comment btw, as it was quite true.)
  2. For numbering purposes, part of me wants it to end in the 580-590 range... 700m-1 600m-1 500m-1 400m-1 300m-1 200m-1 one film in each level at the end of summer.... it's like a OCD dream...
  3. So much Eye Roll in this thread..... The only point proven is that it is rare for a sequel to DOUBLE the OW of it's predecessor (particularly excluding decade long gaps ala Dory and I2) 5-day versus 3-day OW have to also be considered since several of the above mentioned films were 4/5 day openings versus 3 for their sequels. Off the top of my head the biggest recent example is probably Pitch Perfect 2? Which opened in the Spirit of Austin Powers (OW above the final domestic gross of it's predecessor) (now that I think about it John Wick is probably pretty close as well.) Generally speaking @baumer is right in that it is normally small films that made a killing on HV that exploded with their sequels and nearly to a fault (not perfect) the final gross for the 1st film was under 100m. You have exceptions such as Twilight (New Moon rode the wave of fan hysteria but the series never grew beyond that OW) but they are the exception. Pirates / Matrix / Fockers - all films that were WOM monsters with extended openings that make the comparison harder but the same phenomena - huge HV hits that fanned the flames for the next installment. Ant-Man got a 3x in the middle of fine summer for film but never set the world on fire on HV so I don't get how it is comparable. And again, the argument being raised is that this film should fit into a mold that a finite amount of films have ever fallen into? It makes no sense.
  4. But again why?? You were asking the film to do something that wasn't even in the realm of possibility (that % increase from the first was would have been HUGE on top of it already being big via the 80+ debut.) The pre-sales didn't indicate 100m, the tracking didn't indicate 100m, and past Marvel history didn't indicate 100m. It baffles me that some of y'all not only thought it had that potential but staked your predictions on it. Granted, once in a blue moon the crazy ass prediction is right, but the data doesn't generally skew that frequently and Marvel is not Jurassic World in the walk-ups department. Earlier this week I tried to discuss how 80m was a good goal and over the low end of tracking (75m) and most of the tracking folks were still going nuts with boom/bust (the presales / the MT % / etc).... as I said, this forum doens't know how to appreciate Good numbers for what they are.
  5. I am getting so tired of this forum putting unrealistic expectations on films. Seriously yall get a grip. Ant Man was never doing 100m tracking never suggested it and precedent always suggested a 90m OW at the top.... some of yall poison the whole well by allowing your outlandish desires (for both booms and busts) to run amuck and it becomes hard for the rest of us to appreciate a good performance due to sorting out all the negativity. AM2 got both an IW and a sequel boost.
  6. On the strength of an opening that was much larger than JW2 and of course #3 suffered for it (hidden by the 3d surcharges)
  7. Yes but all 3 had to have special extensions. Also Skyscraper is a "chinese" film hence the opening during July bit. It would be interesting to downgrade the #s relative to population. Would put things in a bit better perspective.
  8. Probably helped by the blackout period. Not trying to downplay, just giving context.
  9. That is a great increase for I2 and a very solid number for JW2. @Thrylos 7 is making shit up like usual so *nothing to see* Seems to be a fairly normal weekend. @WrathOfHan your I2 and JW2 Saturdays are probably going to be flipped but I dont see a scenario where JW2 manages to get to #2.
  10. narniadis

    Thursday's Numbers:

    Sets the top 3 (I2, JW2 and Purge4) up for good weekends if the Friday increases come in even just decently.
  11. Probably not as JW2 should have the better Friday / Saturday increases. Of course I could be wrong.
  12. narniadis

    Thursday's Numbers:

    Not sure why yall are surprised. 30% would have been a blessing. Yall forgetting that 2012 didnt have previews yet as it was pre-TDKR. Plus the films reported so far lost massive showtimes last night. @baumer see what I was saying the last couple of days #panic
  13. @baumer I don't remember if it was the Tuesday thread or the tracking thread but yesterday there was someone trying to explain how JW2 stops at 350m.... so yes, we still have those people on the board. As for my repeated comments about todays drops, history on this forum reminds me that people react first to the numbers (the % +/-) and then only after cooling down consider the calender and other factors. Maybe this holiday will be different but considering the crazy OMG LOOK AT THE LEGS that have been going on due to the holiday, I doubt it. Next week when everything is off 50%+ week over week the complainers will be back.
  14. Oh it is a holiday and the thursday holds should prove that.... and everyone will initially be panicking about it.

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