mahnamahna

I see Moana doing $240-260 million DOM. In order to do $300 million+ DOM, it'd need to have a sub-50% drop this next weekend (42-45%) and have a 5-15% drop the following weekend, along with a 35-40% drop against Rogue One. Christmas/New Year's and MLK to a lesser extent would likely get it to $300-310 million DOM at that point. Otherwise, it'll likely finish around $10-15 million above Fantastic Beasts/Doctor Strange. Not bad considering how huge the first eight months of 2016 were (8 films above $300 million DOM)

Moana Rogue One Sing Passengers Arrival Office Christmas Party La La Land Fences Live by Night I'd guess the $100 million+ performers will end up in this order: Finding Dory: $486 million Rogue One: $442 million Captain America - Civil War: $408 million The Secret Life of Pets: $368 million The Jungle Book: $364 million Deadpool: $363 million Sing: $346 million Zootopia: $341 million Batman vs. Superman - Dawn of Justice: $330 million Suicide Squad: $325 million Moana: $257 million Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $236 million Doctor Strange: $227 million Passengers: $176 million Jason Bourne: $162 million Star Trek Beyond: $159 million Trolls: $156 million X-Men - Apocalypse: $155 million La La Land: $152 million Kung Fu Panda 3: $143 million Ghostbusters: $128 million Central Intelligence: $127 million The Legend of Tarzan: $126 million Sully: $125 million Fences: $121 million Office Christmas Party: $114 million Bad Moms: $113 million The Angry Birds Movie: $107 million Independence Day - Resurgence: $103 million The Conjuring 2: $102 million Live by Night: $102 million Arrival: $101 million

Rogue One: $103 million Passengers: $40.5 million Sing: $65 million This club will top out at 22 unless Assassin's Creed, Why Him? or Office Christmas Party really overperform.

As Zootopia: A Eye in the Sky: A 10 Cloverfield Lane: A- Finding Dory: A- Bs Captain America - Civil War: B+ Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: B+ The Secret Life of Pets: B The Shallows: B Hell or High Water: B Central Intelligence: B- Ghostbusters: B- The Jungle Book: B- Cs The BFG: C+ Star Trek Beyond: C+ Miracles From Heaven: C+ My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: C Midnight Special: C Deadpool: C- The Angry Birds Movie: C- Hail, Caesar!: C- Still to see Hello, My Name is Doris April and the Extraordinary World Sing Street Love & Friendship The Conjuring 2 The Legend of Tarzan Cafe Society Lights Out Nerve Pete's Dragon Kubo and the Two Strings Florence Foster Jenkins Sully Storks Queen of Katwe Moonlight Doctor Strange Trolls Moana Arrival Hacksaw Ridge Loving Manchester by the Sea Jackie La La Land Collateral Beauty Rogue One - A Star Wars Story Passengers Sing A Monster Calls Silence Fences Hidden Figures Your Name The Red Turtle 13th

$2.1 million $2.0 million $4.3 million $4.1 million $2.5 million ($61.7 million 17-day) $6 million ($70 million 24-day) $5 million ($78 million 31-day) $3 million ($82 million 38-day) $2 million ($86 million 45-day) $2.5 million ($92 million 52-day) $1.5 million ($95 million 59-day) $1 million/$1.5 million ($97 million 67-day) With some mild Oscar buzz, I see it legging its way to $95-105 million DOM.

I wouldn't say Moana is locked to cross $300 million DOM yet. It'd need some excellent holds the first three weekends of December to do $300 million+ DOM with typical Thanksgiving legs and Sing opening up Dec 21. Even if Sing doesn't do Pets numbers, $200 million+ DOM should happen with minimal kid competition and solid buzz.

Based on Tangled, Moana has until after MLK weekend, really. If Sing and Rogue One end up selling out, this could help Moana as an alternative for families during Christmas/New Years.

You do realize FB will drop 60-70% next weekend, right? add another 60-70% drop against Rogue One and FB will likely finish with $210-220 million DOM (respectable considering OS numbers will likely be $500-650 million). Moana will hold slightly better next weekend and likely leg its way into the New Year despite Sing opening. Moana - $255 million Doctor Strange - $230 million Fantastic Beasts - $220 million Trolls - $160 million Arrival - $105 million That's what the top 5 for Nov. 2016 is looking like so far.

$62.5 million ($89 million) $30 million ($131 million) $23 million ($162 million) $13 million ($179 million) $11.5 million ($201 million) $14.5 million ($232 million) $7.5 million ($245 million) $4 million/$6 million ($252 million) $2.5 million ($255 million) $260-263 million DOM I agree it will most likely miss $300 million DOM unless it gets a sub-50% drop next weekend and has a great hold against Rogue One, but $250-260 million DOM should still happen. $220 million DOM would mean some bad legs from a $85-90 million 5-day.

$2.6 million $12.9 million $10.8 million $24.5 million $23 million $15.5 million ($89.3 million 5-day) $3 million $4 million $2.7 million $2.8 million ($101.8 million 9-day) $7.5 million $14 million $8.5 million ($132 million 12-day)

After considering Logan and Apes 3, I'll revise my predict to a top 25 (and include both of them fairly high up) Star Wars Episode VIII: $675 million Beauty & the Beast: $480 million Spider-Man - Homecoming: $430 million Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $385 million The LEGO Batman Movie: $360 million Justice League: $335 million Despicable Me 3: $310 million Fast 8: $280 million Coco: $275 million Wonder Woman: $250 million Thor - Ragnorak: $235 million Dunkirk: $200 million Kong - Skull Island: $185 million Logan: $175 million Transformers - The Last Knight: $170 million War for the Planet of the Apes: $165 million Jumanji: $155 million Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $150 million The Greatest Showman on Earth: $145 million Cars 3: $140 million Ninjago: $135 million Murder on the Orient Express: $135 million Alien - Covenant: $130 million Baywatch: $130 million Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $125 million

$9.3 million $11.7 million $8.5 million $17.5 million $15.5 million $9 million $152.6 million 10-day total - wouldn't be too bad at all.

$2.6 million Tuesday previews $20.4 million Wednesday ($23 million official Wednesday #) $15.5 million Thursday $32 million Friday $30 million Saturday $18 million Sunday $118.5 million 5-day might seem crazy, but a $25 million Wed and typical Thanksgiving week holds would give us $100 million+ 5-day.

Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) Liam Nesson (Silence) Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) J.K. Simmons (La La Land)

The more diverse the Oscar voting audience becomes (primarily younger and more female representation), the more likely an animated film winning Best Picture becomes. I think Millennials will be the first generation of Oscar voters willing to pick an animated film (something like WALL-E or Spirited Away) for Best Picture. While I don't see it happening in the next 10-15 years, I definitely think a more mature/subtle WDAS, Pixar or Studio Ghibli film could snag a BP win as a lifetime achievement award for the entire genre (similar to what Return of the King did for fantasy blockbusters back in 2004). I'd say an animated film will win BP sometime in the next 50-60 years. Only question is when. I'd say science-fiction will get a BP win sometime in the next decade, though.

I think La La Land will win Best Song since it's a BP frontrunner, while Moana will likely only be nominated for BAF and Best Song. Still, I'm predicting Zootopia Kubo and the Two Strings Moana Your Name Sing/Finding Dory (depending on Sing's reception)

I'm thinking Denzel Washington (Fences) Ryan Gosling (La La Land) Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) Andrew Garfield (Silence) Tom Hanks (Sully) The field is pretty weak this year beyond the top 3, so really #4 and #5 could go to a variety of well-received lead performances. I think Gosling has the edge over Affleck since La La Land is likely to win multiple Oscars while Manchester by the Sea may only get Original Screenplay. Plus, Denzel is a beloved, non-controversial veteran giving a powerhouse performance, and the Academy won't turn down the opportunity to have Denzel tie for most acting Oscars for a man.

$6.7 million $9.1 million $11.8 million $8.2 million $17.4 million $16.7 million $10.1 million $44.2 million 3-day/$64.2 million 5-day ($154.4 million 10-day) Not bad for FB. $39-41 million is more likely, but I'd rather be bullish about its prospects. That 10-day figure would put FB on pace for $205-220 million DOM. Possibly more, but the 60-65% post-Thanksgiving drop will likely be hard to overcome.

I see it doing $50 million/$135 million You're both right. I see it doing $60 million/$170 million

Star Wars Episode VIII: $215 million/$675 million Beauty & the Beast: $145 million/$480 mililon Spider-Man - Homecoming: $155 million/$430 million Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $150 million/$385 million The LEGO Batman Movie: $105 million/$360 mililon Justice League: $145 million/$345 mililon Despicable Me 3: $100 million/$315 million Fast 8: $110 million/$280 million Coco: $65 million/$275 million Wonder Woman: $95 million/$265 million Thor - Ragnorak: $90 million/$235 million Kong - Skull Island: $85 million/$215 million Dunkirk: $55 million/$200 million Transformers - The Last Knight: $80 million/$185 million Murder on the Orient Express: $45 million/$175 million Jumanji: $30 million/$165 million The Greatest Showman on Earth: $35 million/$160 million Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $60 million/$155 million Cars 3: $50 million/$145 million Ninjago: $45 million/$140 million

$9.5 million/$13 million ($59 million) $5 million ($66 million) $4 million ($72 million) $2 million ($75 million) $1.5 million ($78 million) $2 million ($82 million) Since it'll likely get some Oscar nods, I'd say another $10-15 million after New Year's. $90-95 million DOM is my guess, but it could end up at $85-90 million DOM.

Fantastic Beasts is doing what we probably should have expected all along: $70-75 million OW. $180-230 million DOM isn't bad since this franchise is clearly being made for the $500-700 million from OS grosses. Trolls and Doctor Strange both held as I expected. They should rebound nicely next week due to Thanksgiving. Trolls is on pace for $160-165 million DOM while Doctor Strange should end up at $225-230 million DOM. Sad to see Arrival having a harsh 2nd weekend drop. Paramount should have added another 500-750 theaters this weekend.

I just think the smaller OW means it won't have a 55-65% 2nd weekend drop like DH1, CF, MJ1, MJ2, the Twilight films, etc. More like 45-50% next weekend. It'll drop 60-65% over the post-Thanksgiving frame and when Rogue One opens, but I think it'll have stronger legs than all of the Potter films except Sorcerer's Stone and Chamber of Secrets.