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mahnamahna

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Everything posted by mahnamahna

  1. Those are terrible numbers considering there's not much of anything coming out this holiday weekend. I'd hope for a $2-3 million increase in the 3-day for Angel at least.
  2. 5 new releases taking its screens. But that won't come into effect until the 14th since Aladdin and Yesterday will bear the brunt of screen loss this week. New predicts
  3. Summer 2019 doesn't look as bad if you include Endgame and accept the last weekend of April may very well become the new start of summer box office (a big tentpole + NFL Draft = an unofficial summer kickoff almost). Shazam! should have released on July 26th and Dora should have stuck to August 2nd.
  4. Aladdin on the way to $270-320 million DOM. John Wick 3 is already well above the first two. It's equivalent to Austin Powers in terms of franchise growth. $150-160 million DOM is excellent and likely the franchise's peak. I don't see how Chapter 4 doesn't decline at least slightly ($100-110 million DOM would be my guess). Endgame could possibly inch its way to $850 million DOM with the help of a Far from Home/Labor Day re-release. $835-840 million is a more realistic and utterly phenomenal number for a franchise that seemingly reached its attendance peak in 2012. Detective Pikachu is performing solidly. The rough legs aren't shocking to anyone who's taken a look at how the first three theatrical Pokémon movies performed. The first one got less than a 3x in an era when a G-rated film doing that was practically unheard of. The $150 million DOM it's heading for is solid considering a film with audience crossover two weeks prior did $350 million+ OW. Booksmart and Brighburn are doing fine for their budgets. A Dog's Journey wasn't helped by coming out the same year as A Dog's Way Home. Universal should have considered a delay to August 2020 to leave some space between the two. The Intruder is a nice low-budget hit. It has had solid legs for a Screen Gems thriller. Long Shot was poorly marketed and has to settle for being an underperformer. The Hustle is doing well enough, but it likely needed to do about double to make a decent profit for UA.
  5. With 91/115 and great WOM so far, Aladdin should have a solid run. It could do $48-50 million and possibly hold better over its 3rd weekend, but SLOP2 doing $55 million+ OW might just be too much for it to not have a 50-55% drop. $47 million ($186 million) $22 million ($227 million) $15.5 million ($255 million) - Father's Day $10 million ($274 million) - TS4 doubles $7.5 million ($289 million) - no kid-friendly new releases $5 million ($300 million) - July 4th/Far From Home as the only major new release $310-313 million DOM
  6. That's also not accounting for the $30 million or so John Wick/Avengers/Pikachu will bring in and the $35-45 million from Aladdin. Actually, May 2019 has a well-rounded slate. June 2019 has a likely $75 million+ performer every weekend. July 2019 has two films that could do $450 million+ DOM and another R-rated counterprogrammer that could do $150 million+ DOM depending on WOM. Also, my top 20 for Summer 2019 as of now doesn't include Endgame. I personally think it should as the last weekend of April may very well start becoming the unofficial start to summer box office. I'm thinking the top 20 should turn out like this:
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