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They're remarkably consistent, though. With the exception of the indie movies he directs from time to time, Denzel's star power almost guarantees $70 million+ DOM (adjusted for inflation) Denzel churns out hits regularly and M7 very well could be his biggest hit yet.

$10 million ($314 million) $5 million ($322 million) $3 million ($326 million) $2 million ($328 million) $2.75 million/$3.5 million ($332 million) $340 million DOM If Suicide Squad does $125 million+ OW, everything will get hurt. Pete's Dragon is in Pets' demo. Kubo will get double features with Pets, so it should hold okay. And Labor Day, plus second-run theaters should get Pets to $340-345 million IMO. How about you?

Nerve $1.1 million $2.65 million $2.6 million $3.7 million $4.9 million $3.5 million $12.1 million/$18.4 million Star Trek Beyond $4.5 million $7 million $9.5 million $7.2 million $23.8 million 2nd weekend ($105.8 million 10-day) Pets $3.7 million $5.1 million $6.7 million $5.2 million $17.0 million 4th weekend ($294.9 million 24-day)

I could see this doing $100-120 million DOM if it's well-done. Unlike Billy Lynn and Allied, I think it'll appeal to a similar demo as Lone Survivor, Act of Valor and American Sniper.

In most years, I'd say yes. But 2016 will possibly see 10-11 films do $300 million+ DOM. The year has been top-heavy and Disney already has 3 that passed $350 million DOM (with Zootopia just under the mark and Rogue One likely to pass $350 million, too). I wouldn't be surprised to see Moana do $350-355 million. Especially since it'll have a stronger 5-day opening than Frozen (could go as high as $125-130 million 5-day IMO). Granted, $270-320 million is the safe predict.

I know It's just not common. From 1980 to 2015, only 2009 had more than 7 films do $285 million+ DOM in a single year. Granted, 2016 is on pace for 10 (Pets, Rogue One, SS, Moana) and Fantastic Beasts could do $280-300 million DOM, too. (making it 11). If Passengers and Sing somehow did it, that'd put the number at 13 - five more than the previous record

Zootopia would get nominated for Best Picture before Sing Kinda thinking November-December 2016 will be top-heavy. 6-7 big hits and everything else does decent enough. Rogue One: $445 million Moana: $355 million Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $295 million Passengers: $285 million Sing: $235 million Doctor Strange: $200 million La La Land: $145 million Hacksaw Ridge: $115 million Trolls: $110 million Silence: $105 million Can't see all of that happening since that'd mean the entire top 12 DOM would be at $285 million+ DOM and I might be lowballing Sing depending on late marketing and WOM.

Kinda figured Shark Tale would miss, but I remembered all four opened late 2004, so I gave it a shot 3 is probably the highest number of aninated films we'll see in the top 10 at once since the fourth eligible one will almost always be #11-20.

Maybe Incredibles, SpongeBob, Polar Express and Shark Tale in 2004?

My guess is that Rogue One, Passengers and Sing will all thrive since none of them share a significant audience. I Am Legend/National Treasure 2/Alvin is the best comparison for the three. The only difference being that November 2016 has three strong films (all three could do $200 million+ DOM) while November 2007 had a few mid-level hits... and that was it. Rogue One: $120 million/$425 million Passengers: $50 million ($75 million 5-day)/$270 million Sing: $45 million ($65 million 5-day)/$225 million With good reviews/WOM and a solid late marketing effort by Illumination, it could go even higher IMO.

Pretty close to mine, actually. I do think GotG2 will increase since there's really nothing during the month of May other than POTC5 (thinking $160-180 million DOM). Star Wars Episode VIII: $720 million Beauty and the Beast: $430 million Spider-Man - Homecoming: $420 million Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $355 million The LEGO Batman Movie: $345 million Despicable Me 3: $310 million Fast 8: $295 million Coco: $285 million Wonder Woman: $275 million Thor - Ragnorak: $260 million Justice League: $245 million Kong - Skull Island: $215 million Dunkirk: $210 million War of the Planet of the Apes: $205 million Transformers - The Last Knight: $200 million

BFG and Ice Age 5 never looked that big. I do agree on IDR and X-Men, though. If they had done $190-220 million DOM each, this summer would be seen as fairly solid.

XXX 3: $90 million Trainspotting 2: $40 million Dark Tower: $125 million LEGO Batman: $345 million Wolverine 3: $160 million Kong - Skull Island: $215 million Power Rangers: $50 million I don't see T2 or Power Rangers being hits - one is a niche sequel that could underwhelm and the other is a reboot that comes after Wolverine 3, Kong and B&TB... with Ghost and Fast 8 in the few weeks to follow.

I think the difference is that Cloudy 2 wasn't a sequel most asked for. Plus, one could tell from the trailers the humor wouldn't be as sharp as Cloudy 1. LEGO Batman is a spinoff that hits all of the right notes with its trailer. I could see it doing $250-350 million DOM, especially since it'll be the first major blockbuster of 2017.

$97 million $68 million/$85 million ($210 million) $35.5 million ($253 million) $24 million ($285 million) $17.5 million ($314 million) $8 million ($328 million) $4.25 million ($335 million) $2 million ($338 million) $1 million ($339 million) $346 million DOM

7/29-7/31 Jason Bourne: $42 million Bad Moms: $31 million Star Trek Beyond: $28 million ($117 million) The Secret Life of Pets: $20.5 million ($302 million) Lights Out: $12 million ($45 million) Ghostbusters: $9.5 million ($106 million) Ice Age - Collision Course: $9.5 million ($40 million) Nerve: $7 million ($11 million) Finding Dory: $5.5 million ($471 million) The Legend of Tarzan: $4 million ($124 million) 8/5-8/7 Suicide Squad: $147 million Bad Moms: $21 million ($69 million) Jason Bourne: $19 million ($81 million) Star Trek Beyond: $13.5 million ($144 million) The Secret Life of Pets: $12 million ($326 million) Nine Lives: $8 million Ghostbusters: $5 million ($116 million) Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.5 million ($50 million) Lights Out: $4 million ($52 million) Finding Dory: $3.5 million ($480 million) 8/12-8/14 Suicide Squad: $55 million ($257 million) Pete's Dragon: $28 million Sausage Party: $23 million Florence Foster Jenkins: $15 million Jason Bourne: $12.5 million ($103 million) Bad Moms: $11.5 million ($88 million) The Secret Life of Pets: $6 million ($335 million) Nine Lives: $5 million ($15 million) Ghostbusters: $3 million ($121 million) Lights Out: $2.5 million ($56 million) 8/19-8/21 Suicide Squad: $30 million ($302 million) Kubo and the Two Strings: $23.5 million Pete's Dragon: $15 million ($48 million) Ben-Hur: $13.5 million War Dogs: $11.5 million Florence Foster Jenkins: $11 million ($31 million) Sausage Party: $8 million ($37 million) Bad Moms: $7.5 million ($99 million) Jason Bourne: $7 million ($113 million) Nine Lives: $3 million ($19 million) 8/26-8/28 Suicide Squad: $20.5 million ($333 million) Kubo and the Two Strings: $17 million ($46 million) Pete's Dragon: $12 million ($64 million) Florence Foster Jenkins: $9 million ($43 million) Ben-Hur: $8.5 million ($25 million) War Dogs: $7.5 million ($23 million) Don't Breathe: $7 million Bad Moms: $6 million ($107 million) Jason Bourne: $5 million ($120 million) Mechanic - Resurrection: $5 million 9/2-9/5 Kubo and the Two Strings: $17.5 million/$25 million ($76 million) Suicide Squad: $16 million/$20.5 million ($361 million) The Light Between Oceans: $13 million/$16.5 million Pete's Dragon: $11 million/$15.5 million ($83 million) Florence Foster Jenkins: $8 million/$10 million ($56 million) Morgan: $6.5 million/$7.75 million Ben-Hur: $6 million/$7.25 million ($35 million) War Dogs: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($32 million) Bad Moms: $5 million/$6 million ($115 million) Jason Bourne: $4.5 million/$5.25 million ($127 million) 9/9-9/11 Sully: $28 million When the Bough Breaks: $17 million The Light Between Oceans: $8 million ($26 million) Kubo and the Two Strings: $7.5 million ($85 million) Suicide Squad: $7 million ($370 million) Before I Wake: $5.5 million Pete's Dragon: $5 million ($89 million) The Wild Life: $5 million Florence Foster Jenkins: $4.5 million ($62 million) Jason Bourne: $2.5 million ($130 million) 9/16-9/18 Blair Witch: $33 million Sully: $19 million ($56 million) Bridget Jones' Baby: $17 million Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $13 million Snowden: $8 million Kubo and the Two Strings: $6.5 million ($93 million) The Light Between Oceans: $6 million ($34 million) When the Bough Breaks: $5.5 million ($26 million) Suicide Squad: $4.5 million ($377 million) Pete's Dragon: $4 million ($94 million) 9/23-9/25 The Magnificent Seven: $64 million Storks: $48 million Sully: $12 million ($73 million) Bridget Jones' Baby: $10 million ($32 million) Blair Witch: $10 million ($49 million) Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $6 million ($22 million) The Light Between Oceans: $3.5 million ($39 million) Snowden: $3 million ($13 million) Suicide Squad: $2.5 million ($381 million) When the Bough Breaks: $2.5 million ($30 million) 9/30-10/2 The Magnificent Seven: $37.5 million ($119 million) Storks: $27 million ($84 million) Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $24.5 million Deepwater Horizon: $18 million Masterminds: $8 million Sully: $7.5 million ($84 million) The Edge of Seventeen: $5 million Bridget Jones' Baby: $4 million ($38 million) Blair Witch: $3.5 million ($54 million) Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $3 million ($26 million) 10/7-10/9 The Magnificent Seven: $24 million ($153 million) The Girl on the Train: $21.5 million Storks: $20.5 million ($110 million) Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $16 million ($45 million) Birth of a Nation: $12.5 million Deepwater Horizon: $8 million ($29 million) Sully: $4.25 million ($91 million) Masterminds: $3.5 million ($13 million) Bridget Jones' Baby: $2.5 million ($42 million) The Edge of Seventeen: $2 million ($8 million) 10/14-10/16 The Accountant: $26 million The Magnificent Seven: $18 million ($182 million) Storks: $16.5 million ($135 million) Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $12 million ($63 million) Birth of a Nation: $10.5 million ($28 million) The Girl on the Train: $10 million ($38 million) Kevin Hart - What Now?: $7 million Deepwater Horizon: $5 million ($37 million) Sully: $3 million ($96 million) Masterminds: $2 million ($16 million)

Star Trek Beyond, Jason Bourne and Magnificent Seven could all inch across $200 million DOM. Suicide Squad could 'only' do $250-280 million DOM (still great for a quirky supervillain tentpole with minimal kid/family appeal). Doctor Strange could do Thor 2 numbers with a $70-75 million OW and decent WOM. Fantastic Beasts will probably end up in the $200-299 million DOM range. Moana could disappoint and 'only' do $200-250 million DOM. Sing and Passengers remind me heavily of Alvin 1/I Am Legend. I could see both of those and Rogue One all doing $200 million+ DOM since all three have broad appeal and target different demos. Personally, I see the top 20 looking like: Finding Dory Rogue One Captain America - Civil War Moana Suicide Squad Deadpool The Jungle Book The Secret Life of Pets Zootopia Batman vs. Superman - Dawn of Justice Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Passengers Sing Doctor Strange The Magnificent Seven Star Trek Beyond Storks Jason Bourne X-Men: Apocalypse Kung Fu Panda 3 Of those, I think 1-14 will do $200 million+ DOM (even if Passengers, Sing and Doctor Strange only inch across the mark).

I actually think Kubo will do it. A low 20s OW, a 30% 2nd weekend drop and a 5% 3-day Labor Day increase would be enough to put SS into 2nd or 3rd place. Good WOM could make it possible. Morgan will be lucky to make 5th place I think Kubo, SS, Lights, Pete, Bourne 5 and Florence will all finish ahead of it that weekend.

Great call! I started feeling $70-80 million once Pets had a $100 million+ OW and buzz was non-existent. $50-55 million DOM is enough to make a small profit, but not enough to justify Ice Age 6. With how mediocre the Ice Age franchise is, it's hard to be sad about its demise or stalling. Star Trek with a $60 million OW and a $160-185 million DOM total isn't too bad. Pets getting a $29 million 3rd weekend is solid: $22 million ($305 million) $12.5 million ($330 million) $6 million ($339 million) $3 million ($343 million) $2 million ($345 million) $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($349 million) $354-357 million DOM Lights Out with a $20-21 million OW and $55-65 million DOM sounds about right. Dory holding nicely! $485-495 million DOM should happen. Ghostbusters holding about as well as anyone could expect. $130-140 million DOM should happen. Tarzan holding well! $130-133 million DOM is a lot better than most on here expected. $18.5 million OW (from a $5.75 million actual Friday) $9 million ($35 million) $4.5 million ($44 million) $2 million ($47 million) $0.75 million ($48 million) $0.5 million ($49 mlilion) $1 million/$1.25 million ($50 million) $53-55 million DOM would still be roughly a 3x, but Angry Birds, SpongeBob 2 and Home all missed a 3x over the last two years, so IA5 missing the mark wouldn't be unprecedented.

Which is kinda why I expected IA5 to do $60-80 million after minimal buzz, OS underperformance and the breakout of Pets/Dory. The underperformance of multiple sequels this summer doesn't help matters. Would love to see Pete's Dragon and Kubo both finish above IA5 DOM. If BFG had, too, that would have been quite a story Bourne 5, yes. Trek 3 - so-so IMO. Bourne 5 will drop 55% against Suicide Squad, but will benefit from Ben-Hur being the only other major film for its demo until September 23rd. I could see a 3.5x-4x even from a $55-65 million OW. Trek 3 would, but Bourne 5 and Suicide Squad back-to-back pretty much guarantees back-to-back 50-55% weekend drops. Even with strong late legs, that would only get it to 2.8x-3x IMO. Both will succeed and hopefully end up in the $150-250 million range. We need more mid-level blockbusters instead of just $330 million+ gargantuans.

I know this, but the franchise is clearly tired and Dory/Pets will combine for $800 million DOM when all is said and done. Possibly $850 million DOM if Pets and Dory develop extraordinary late legs. Star Trek 3 and GB have a little family appeal. Pete's Dragon/Nine Lives/Kubo all take away its already meager family audience, too. It'll make enough not to bomb ($60-80 million DOM and $200-250 million OS would still result in a tiny profit or breaking even before Netflix/cable), but I think they'll stick to Scrat shorts and DTV sequels after this one.

July 2016 has returned to the typical summer format that May/June skipped out on. Jason Bourne, Bad Moms and Suicide Squad should all be solid hits, too. This next weekend is looking solid Star Trek Beyond: $63 million The Secret Life of Pets: $26.5 million ($257 million) Lights Out: $22 million Ghostbusters: $19 million ($84 million) Ice Age - Collision Course: $17 million The Legend of Tarzan: $6.5 million ($116 million) Finding Dory: $6 million ($459 million) Hillary's America: $5 million Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million Central Intelligence: $3.5 million ($124 million) With other unwanted sequels plummeting this summer (Neighbors 2, NYSM2, Alice 2, TMNT2, IDR), I wouldn't be shocked if IA5 only does $60-70 million DOM. Pets and Dory will combine for $750-800 million DOM and BFG adds another $50-55 million. And Pete's Dragon/Kubo will hurt it, too.

I'm surprised it wasn't even included in the top 10 predict since Purge 3 will likely drop to $2.5 million-$3 million. I would think $4-5 million OW is doable with 1,200 theaters.

Thanks! I'm getting more and more accurate as I go. There's definitely more of a process/formula to numbers than one might think. Still think it's on pace for $26 million this next weekend. I'd say $28-29 million based on its weekdays, but Ice Age 5 will leave enough of a dent to put it in the $24-26 million range IMO. $330-345 million should happen unless it drops worse than I expect against Bourne 5/Bad Moms and SS

It's too bad Ice Age 5 comes out this weekend. It won't be able to drop 38-40% if IA5 does $20-25 million OW. $26 million ($257 million) $18 million ($283 million) $11 million ($305 million) $5.5 million ($313 million) $3 million ($317 million) $2.5 million ($320 million) $3.25 million/$4.5 million ($325 million) $330-335 million DOM Not a bad run.