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mahnamahna

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Everything posted by mahnamahna

  1. 11/16-11/18 1. Fantastic Beasts 2: $78 million 2. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: $39.5 million ($117 million) 3. Instant Family: $21 million 4. Bohemian Rhapsody: $20.5 million ($131 million) 5. Widows: $18 million 6. A Star is Born: $5.5 million ($186 million) 7. Nutcracker: $5 million ($43 million) 8. Overlord: $4.5 million ($17 million) 9. The Girl in the Spider's Web: $4 million ($14 million) 10. Venom: $2.5 million ($210 million)
  2. 10/26-10/28 1. Halloween: $32 million ($129 million) 2. A Star is Born: $13.5 million ($146 million) 3. Venom: $10.5 million ($186 million) 4. Goosebumps - Haunted Halloween: $8 million ($39 million) 5. Hunter Killer: $6 million 6. First Man: $5.75 million ($39 million) 7. The Hate U Give: $5.5 million ($19 million) 8. Smallfoot: $5.25 million ($74 million) 9. Johnny English Strikes Again: $3.25 million 10. Night School: $3 million ($71 million) 11/2-11/4 1. Bohemian Rhapsody: $38 million 2. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: $26.5 million 3. Halloween: $13 million ($152 million) 4. Nobody's Fool: $10 million 5. A Star is Born: $8.5 million ($159 million) 6. Venom: $6.5 million ($197 million) 7. The Hate U Give: $4 million ($25 million) 8. First Man: $3.5 million ($44 million) 9. Goosebumps - Haunted Halloween: $3 million ($44 million) 10. Hunter Killer: $3 million ($11 million) 11/9-11/11 1. The Grinch: $94 million 2. Bohemian Rhapsody: $17.5 million ($64 million) 3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: $15 million ($46 million) 4. The Girl in tthe Spider's Web: $11 million 5. Overlord: $8 million 6. A Star is Born: $6.5 million ($169 million) 7. Nobody's Fool: $4 million ($16 million) 8. Halloween: $3.5 million ($158 million) 9. Venom: $3 million ($202 million) 10. The Hate U Give: $2.75 million ($29 million) 11/16-11/18 1. Fantastic Beasts - The Crimes of Grindelwald: $82.5 million 2. The Grinch: $54 million ($167 million) 3. Widows: $27 million 4. Instant Family: $17 million 5. Bohemian Rhapsody: $10 million ($79 million) 6. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: $9 million ($58 million) 7. The Girl in The Spider's Web: $4 million ($17 million) 8. Overlord: $3.5 million ($13 million) 39. A Star is Born: $3 million ($174 million) 10. Nobody's Fool: $2 million ($19 million)
  3. Hmm... $26.5 million $27 million ($79 million) $29.5 million/$38 million ($131 million) $22 million ($161 million) $17.5 million ($187 million) $14.5 million ($209 million) $12 million ($227 million) $9 million ($240 million) $7.5 million ($252 million) $5 million ($260 million) $3 million ($264 million) I don't think anything over $100 million DOM is anything WB will be sad about, though 😋 realistically as far as best case scenarios go, Blind Side DOM unadjusted is possible with back-to-back weekend increases. But it also requires some absurd holds (7 weekends of $12 million+, likely in the top 12 until 10/26 or 11/2, etc). Then again, it's on pace to drop no more than 15% this weekend, which is unheard of on a non-holiday frame. It's looking like $165-215 million DOM should happen, though.
  4. $400k $5.3 million $5.5 million $9.5 million $11.5 million $9 million ($30 million OW/$41.2 million 5/5.5-day total)
  5. 8/17 or 8/24 seems like a prime candidate for I2, 8/24 for AM2. I still think 20-25% drops are more likely than 15-20%, though. August has quite a few releases taking up screens even if they're not doing well at the box office. Incredibles 2 (from a $5.5 million W/E) $4.25 million ($590 million) $3.25 million ($594 million) $2.5 million ($598 million) $3.25 million/$4.5 million ($603 million) $1.75 million ($605 million) $1.25 million ($606 million) $0.5 million ($607 million) Ant-Man 2 (from a $6.25 million W/E) $4.75 million ($203 million) $3.5 million ($209 million) $2.75 million ($213 million) $2.25 million/$3.25 million ($217 million) $1.25 million ($219 million) $0.75 million ($220 million)
  6. Fantastic for Mission: Impossible - Fallout. Given its WOM, it could even move up to $35-36 million. If it weren't for Mile 22 directly targeting older men later this month, I'd say $230-250 million DOM is happening. However, a 45-50% 4th weekend drop is likely, making $220-225 million DOM the reasonable goal IMO - still stellar for a 6th installment of a 22-year-old franchise. I wouldn't be shocked if a hyped-up 7th installment as Tom Cruise's last hoorah as Ethan Hunt did $250-300 million DOM since, by now, people are well aware of M:I's steady level of high quality since the 3rd one. Christopher Robin is doing fine. Admittedly, me and many others had high hopes for it after the first trailer, but none of the other Pooh movies have done $100 million DOM adjusted. Anything over Pete's Dragon OW/DOM is a big win. It'll even finish above the much better received Paddington DOM. For this to ride an empty August slate and no kid-friendly competition until Sept 21/28 to a likely $85 million+ DOM finish is quite an accomplishment on a likely $50-60 million budget. Spy Who Dumped Me and Darkest Minds are the first signs of the August doldrums. Unless The Meg breaks out big time (40-45 OW, near 3x) or Crazy Rich Asians does turn into the next Help/Millers ($150-180 million DOM), Christopher Robin could end up being the only major release above $70 million DOM for the month. Mamma Mia rebounded nicely. $120-130 million DOM is great for a sequel everyone was saying $55-75 million DOM for when it was first announced. Equalizer 2 is going to come so close to $100 million, but KKKlansman and Mile 22 will take away some of its main audiences. 5.5 (89)/2.5 (93)/1.5 (95)/1 3-day, 1.3 4-day (97). Sony may move some Searching dollars to make a push for $100 million DOM, though. Hotel Transylvania finally had a good hold. With no major kid-friendly competition for 7 weeks, $165-170 million DOM seems likely and so does a fourth one. This franchise is following Ice Age almost to a 'T' domestically. Ant-Man is going to start showing SM:H holds if the August slate is dismal sans Crazy Rich Asians and Slender Man. $220 million DOM and a tight race for #4/#5 DOM of summer should happen. Incredibles 2 will definitely get to $600 million DOM now. No competition and a Labor Day expansion should help it reach $605 million DOM. Teen Titans did okay. No competition and a low budget makes an inevitable $30 million DOM seem fine enough.
  7. $16 million for Mamma Mia 2 seems a bit low considering general box-office trends for adult-skewing films in the summer, especially since there's no direct competition. $6.5 million (near-70% bump) $9 million (near-40% bump) $7 million (just-over-20% drop) $22.5 million ($78 million 10-day) That might be a bit bullish, but still, $18-20 million seems more likely to me.
  8. Christopher Robin probably won't do that much, but it's in a PERFECT position to be a $250 million+ DOM surprise blockbuster. Winnie the Pooh's beloved status Last major family film until Grinch (House With Clock and Goosebumps have niche appeal, Smallfoot will likely do $50-70 million DOM like the other non-LEGO Movie-connected WAG films) Breath of fresh air from SFX/action-based tentpoles Almost assured to be a heartwarming, tear-jerking crowdpleaser Stellar marketing campaign thus far Will likely have a small enough OW to develop stellar legs Last four-quadrant film of the summer I'm thinking 60/285 right now.
  9. The lone sub-$100 million DOM performer for Disney this year - no way it goes past $75 million DOM. Grinch is going to be HUGE (SLoP/DM2 DOM is what I'm expecting) and directly targets anyone looking for a fun holiday movie, Fantastic Beasts 2 directly targets Nutcracker's fantasy pre-teen/teen crowd, then Wreck-it Ralph 2 takes up whatever family audience is left. And Spidey-Verse kills its late legs. It's just going to get lost in the shuffle. If Disney had released WiR2 in its original date, Nutcracker could probably do Good Dino DOM numbers with a Thanksgiving launch, but Wrinkle in Time prevented that from being an option. I don't think Disney is gonna be upset with 700/100/675/610/230/275/65/160/425 ($3.2 B+ DOM from their 2018 slate) November-December 2018 looks jam-packed, though. Easily the most family-friendly films coming out during the holidays since 2011. I also wonder if there will really be 4 SFX-based tentpoles coming out over Christmas. Aquaman is the only one I see doing well, but Bumblebee could be a nice hit over MLK or in September/October.
  10. Ant-Man 2 is doing solid. With summer weekdays and no kid-friendly tentpoles until Teen Titans/Christopher Robin, I can see 32/17.5/9/5.5/4 for its 2nd-6th weekends ($218 million DOM by August 12th, $225-230 million DOM total). Incredibles 2 is holding excellently. $600-605 million DOM doesn't seem too crazy anymore. Since HT3 and Teen Titans aren't anywhere near as big as SLoP, I2 will likely outpace Dory's late legs if WOM is as solid as the CinemaScore indicates. I can see 16.5/11/7/5/4/3/2 ($602 million DOM by August 26th, $610 million DOM total) Jurassic World 2 doing $31 million 3rd weekend against its biggest competition for the rest of summer is fantastic. I can see it having some 35-38% drops the next two weeks. I'm thinking 17/10.5/6/3.5/1.5/1 ($422 million DOM by August 19th, $425-427 million DOM total) First Purge, Sicario and Uncle Drew are all doing fine. $45-55 million DOM isn't a bad place to end up for how their respective budgets are. Ocean's 8 continues to hold well. Won't You Be My Neighbor? keeps chugging. Hopefully, it can eek out one more expansion as a final push to $20 million+ DOM. Tag plummeted, but it's still on its way to a 3.5x+, great for a middle-of-the-road comedy that got lost in the shuffle of O8/I2/JW-FK July 2018 could end up being pretty well-rounded for the first time in a while. Nothing huge, but just about every major release being a solid success is better than one monster hit and a bunch of underperformers,
  11. Excellent for Jurassic World 2 - a $28-32 million 3rd weekend against Ant-Man 2's OW would be excellent. $335-340 million DOM after 17 days makes $400-420 million DOM pretty likely. If it gets a 40-45% drop against Skyscraper and a sub-40% drop the following week, $400 million DOM is a lock. Solid for Incredibles 2 - $600 million DOM isn't going to happen, but $575-585 million DOM is a distinct possibility. Ant-Man 2, Hotel Transylvania and Teen Titans are all targeting its secondary primary audiences (Ant-Man 2 targeting both its main demos). While it will likely get a boost from Christopher Robin double-features and the typical Labor Day expansion good for a $2.5-3.5 million 4-day, that won't be enough for $600 million DOM, I don't think. Purge is doing fine. It'll likely do enough for a fifth to be greenlit. Uncle Drew is holding solidly, I think it'll likely do $50-60 million DOM. Same goes for Sicario 2. Ocean's 8, Tag and Deadpool 2 are all holding strong late in their runs. MoviePass seems to be increasing the likelihood of people going to see mid-level films in theaters and just late legs of well-liked movies in general. Solo is almost done. Hereditary has had spectacular legs despite its D CinemaScore. Won't You Be My Neighbor? keeps impressing me. I hope Focus gets it into 900-1,200 theaters for this weekend. I'd like to see it do $20 million+ DOM.
  12. Won't You Be My Neighbor?: A+ Incredibles 2: A Avengers - Infinity War: A Black Panther: A I Can Only Imagine: B+ Rampage: B+ Deadpool 2: B Solo - A Star Wars Story: B- Ready Player One: B-
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