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mahnamahna

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Everything posted by mahnamahna

  1. I think Crazy Rich Asians will be the sleeper hit of Summer 2018. I just get a We're the Millers vibe from WB releasing it on a Wed (if they didn't think it'd be a crowdpleaser, why let WOM kill its OW?) and there hasn't been a breakout comedy in some time. I also think the all-Asian main cast will bring out an audience that doesn't normally go to the theater en masse (like Wonder Woman, Black Panther, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, etc.). It may not (likely won't because of Happytime Murders the following week) reach $150 million DOM, but $100 million DOM definitely seems plausible with good WOM and the Labor Day frame its 3rd weekend.
  2. Ocean's 8 and Tag should both be profitable for WB. $140-145 million DOM for O8, $60-65 million DOM for Tag. It's nice to see some mid-level films doing well in the wake of ncredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2.
  3. Solid for Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom. Considering how strong Summer 2018 has been compared to 2016 or 2017, I'd say $145-150 million OW is excellent. Even with so-so WOM, it should get to $325-350 million DOM. A little harsher than the predicts, but Incredibles 2 is having a great hold considering summer weekdays, its $18.5 million in Thurs previews and it being the most frontloaded Pixar sequel yet. Starting next week, its WOM should ease its drops (nothing kid-friendly next weekend, double-features with Ant-Man, HT3 being much lower-key than SLoP or DM3, nothing kid-friendly over 7/20-7/22, Teen Titans being niche) until Christopher Robin takes its remaining screens. Depending on its 3rd and 4th weekend holds, it should end up anywhere between $550-620 million DOM. Fantastic run even if it barely reaches a 3x and likely means Brad Bird will get an original film greenlit if he's willing to fasttrack Incredibles 3 for 2023-2025. Ocean's 8 is slowly showing strong WOM. It should be able to reach $135-140 million DOM, maybe a little higher. Deadpool 2 has quietly gotten itself towards $320-325 million DOM. Despite the decline from the first film, it's still a better performance than the PG-13 Iron Man 2. I'd love to see Won't You Be My Neighbor? be the next March of the Penguins, but it seems like it'll do slightly better than RBG. It's got a feel-good tone that will make it slightly more GA-accessible than the typical documentary.
  4. Kinda surprised people think Christopher Robin is getting a $60 million+ OW. None of the animated Winnie the Pooh films have done that well. It'll do better than Pete's Dragon since it has slightly less competition, but anything over $115-125 million DOM is a stretch IMO unless it gets some phenomenal WOM.
  5. Uncle Drew, Crazy Rich Asians, Happytime Murders and Slender Man all have the potential to be surprise hits. Uncle Drew (only major broad comedy for the whole month of July) Crazy Rich Asians (likely PG-13 date night surprise hit breaking barriers with its nearly all-Asian cast, great counterprogramming for R-rated Happytime, following two dumping ground weekends and The Nun's OW) Happytime Murders (if it ends up being Melissa McCarthy's best since Spy, $65-75 million wouldn't be too outlandish IMO) Slender Man (horror has had a renaissance, several horror films in recent years have done $100 million+ DOM and crossed over to non-horror fans, Don't Breathe - from the same studio - did well in the pre-Labor Day frame two years prior, will be the first major horror film since Hereditary in June or arguably First Purge in July)
  6. Black Panther (202/701) Peter Rabbit (25/115) Fifty Shades Freed (38/100) Ready Player One (41/137) A Quiet Place (50/185) Avengers - Infinity War (240/605) Deadpool 2 Solo - A Star Wars Story Ocean's 8 The Incredibles 2 Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom Ant-Man and the Wasp Hotel Transylvania 3 Mission - Impossible: Fallout Christopher Robin The Meg Crazy Rich Asians The Nun Venom First Man Halloween Dr. Seuss' The Grinch Fantastic Beasts - The Crime of Grindelwald Widows Ralph Breaks the Internet - Wreck-it Ralph 2 Spider-Man - Into the Spider-Verse Aquaman Holmes & Watson Mary Poppins Returns Rampage has a slight chance if it manages $7.2 million this weekend and has two sub-20% drops over 5/4-5/6 and 5/11-5/13 (fairly realistic since it'll likely remain in 2,700+ theaters for those weekends since there aren't many releases going wide enough to replace it), but $90-95 million DOM seems likely. The Hustle, Mamma Mia 2, Slender Man and A Star is Born are four I'd keep an eye on as well. 3 of the 4 target underserved demos so good WOM could push them to $100-125 million DOM. And the other is releasing during a renaissance for horror as a viable option for a $125 million+ DOM performance and decent OS numbers, too. I'd include Skyscraper, too, but after seeing Rampage's performance, it may end up doing Hercules #s (30/75) if Incredibles 2, Jurassic World 2 and Ant-Man 2 are all on pace to do $20 million+ its OW. Creed 2 will likely decline from the $110 million DOM of its predecessor. $80-95 million DOM is my guess.
  7. Should be a tight three-way race for #1 this weekend, a lot healthier of a top 5 than initially expected, Paul may be hurt next weekend as a result of I Can Only Imagine breaking out.
  8. Out of these on Netflix and Amazon Prime I've not seen, which five should be ones I look to watch before 4/26-5/10 for possible consideration on my list?
  9. WiR2 is in a rough spot IMO. I think Grinch and Nutcracker will overshadow it since they're both heavily rooted in the holiday season. Mary Poppins has a fantastic release date if it ends up getting phenomenal WOM as Greatest Showman/Jumanji have shown for the past three months.
  10. August 24th or 31st might actually be good spots for Rampage IMO. -no real PG-13 tentpole competition until Venom in October -the weekend before Labor Day would give it a stellar second-weekend hold and possibly the Labor Day weekend record unadjusted if it does $45-55 million OW. -Labor Day weekend would give it a publicity boost of likely having the highest Labor Day OW by a large margin -status as last summer blockbuster -potential to start trend of smaller tentpole opening right before Labor Day, killing the notion of the last two weekends of August/first weekend of September being a no-man's land.
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