mahnamahna

Kudos to @baumer for calling a $35 million+ 3rd weekend for Jumanji. From a $36 million 3rd weekend, I'll predict: 27.5/35.5 ($289 million), 17 ($310 million), 11.5 ($326 million), 7 ($336 million), 3.5 ($341 million), 2/2.5 ($345 million), $350-355 million DOM range. Strangely, I might actually be lowballing its 4th, 5th and 6th weekend holds. Insidious 4 is doing solidly. $50-55 million DOM is decent for the fourth installment in a dwindling franchise. Last Jedi will finish just under Avengers. Only bad if you thought it would do what ESB and AOTC couldn't do in avoiding a 30%+ drop from the first installment of a new trilogy. Utterly spectacular for Greatest Showman. Considering it has almost no awards buzz minus Best Original Song if "Remember Me" loses momentum, it's become a true WOM monster. Thinking 10.5/14.5 ($97 million), 6.5 ($105 million), 5 ($112 million), 3.5 ($117 million), 1.5 ($119 million), $120-125 million DOM range. PP3 and Ferdinand both rebounded nicely. For PP3, I'm thinking 6/7.25 ($97 million), 2.5 ($100 million), 1.5 ($102 million), $105-108 million DOM range. For Ferdinand, I'm thinking 5.5/8 ($81 million), 3.5 ($85 million), 2.5 ($88 million), 1.5 ($90 million), $93-96 million DOM range. MLK weekend should be interesting. Jumanji, Paddington 2 and The Post could all be in a three-way race for 1st place. I expect all three to do $25 million+ for the 4-day, with Last Jedi bringing in $15 million+ at a distant fourth place.

Jumanji $9.1 million $14.2 million $9.3 million $32.6 million ($240.9 million) $21 million/$28 million ($276 million) $11 million ($289 million) $8 million ($300 million) $4 million ($306 million) $2 million ($309 million) $1 million/$1.5 million ($311 million) $313-315 million DOM

With a $50 million+ 3-day, I think Jumanji could do this, given the fairly weak family tentpole competition from now until Feb 16. Paddington 2 and Peter Rabbit are the only major releases targeting at least part of its demo for the next 6 weeks. $29.5 million ($230 million) $18 million/$24.5 million ($260 million) $10 million ($272 million) $7.5 million ($283 million) $4 million ($289 million) $2 million ($292 million) $1 million ($293 million) $297 million DOM Of course, it could have sub-40% drops its 3rd and 4th weekends, depending on its WOM. It could potentially glide past Thor 3 DOM if it gets $32-33 million 3rd weekend and $21-22 million 4th weekend on its way to a $27-30 million 4-day. At this point, $250-260 million is the floor since even 45-50% drops the rest of its run get it there. $32 million ($235 million) $20.5 million/$27 million ($269 million) $11.5 million ($283 million) $8.5 million ($294 million) $5 million ($301 million) $2.5 million ($305 million) $1 million ($307 million) $311 million DOM

It doesn't need all that great of legs to get to $250 million DOM $43 million/$59 million ($178 million) $23.5 million ($210 million) $13 million/$17.5 million ($232 million) $7 million ($240 million) $4 million ($246 million) $2 million ($249 million) $1 million ($250 million) While I agree it's not a lock, even the usual post-holidays holds get it to $235 million+ DOM.

Jumanji is still doing solid. Thinking 13.6/14.2/16.5/17.8/10.7/16.1 - $177.9 million after 13 days. $240-270 million DOM is fantastic for Sony, giving them a new franchise beyond Spidey and Hotel Transylvania. While IT, Get Out and Wonder Woman were bigger surprise hits, Jumanji definitely ranks high considering many were predicting $90-110 million DOM. TLJ did fine enough. $640-670 million DOM is still likely. PP3 rebounded nicely. Thinking 5.5/5.8/7.1/7.9/4.1/5.7 - $73.7 million after 11 days. If it holds a little better than I expect, it could get to $75-77 million DOM, putting it in the $95-100 million DOM range.

Agreed. Nov-Dec 2018 actually looks quite strong. I think Bumblebee will be a bomb, Dark Phoenix a major disappointment, Spidey not as strong as people think since Aquaman and Poppins will split both the tentpole and family audiences. I could see $120-150 million DOM, depending on WOM, though. Grinch and Poppins could easily be 2 of the top 3 films next year IMO. I think they have the highest ceiling of any major films being released other than Black Panther.

$19 million is excellent for Jumanji - I think $200 million DOM is a done deal, $225 million DOM fairly likely, $250 million DOM most likely, $275 million certainly plausible depending on Tues-Thurs (would need $15.5-16 on Wed IMO to make this reachable), $300 million a longshot, but a $65 million+ 4-day and sub-40% 3rd weekend/4th weekend drops could change that quickly. TLJ did fine enough, but if it ends up short of Jurassic World, that would be slightly disappointing yet not unexpected since Star Wars has a history of second parts in the trilogies declining by 25-35% from the first film, only to see the finale increase from the second, but wind up below the first. $650-670 million DOM for TLJ likely means Episode IX will end up in the $760-810 million DOM range IMO. Greatest Showman is holding on strong. $70-75 million DOM wouldn't be too bad for a non-Oscar contender targeting families already being reached by TLJ, Jumanji, Wonder, Coco and Ferdinand. Pitch Perfect 3 held better than expected. Unless it drops 40%+ next weekend, it should be able to crawl just above PP2's OW, which is still a massive disappointment, but the fairly low budget makes this a slight success through cable airings on Freeform or USA during a Pitch Perfect marathon a year or so from now. Ferdinand is underperforming, but it was a bad idea to release a PG-rated adaptation of a preschool picture book when there are 3-5 other family-friendly films older adults would enjoy more. I think Fox should have moved it to April or May 2018 and edited it to get a G rating like Blue Sky's other successful films of late (3 of their last 4 to reach $100 million DOM were rated G). Coco and Wonder are doing well. Coco should likely cross the $200 million DOM mark while Wonder should reach $130-135 million DOM.

Jumanji 9 ($37.5 million 3-day) 18.3 ($55.8 million 4-day/$72.6 million running total) 19.1 14.6 14.8 ($121.1 million 9-day) 16.4 17.1 9.6 ($43.1 million 3-day) 13.4 ($56.5 million 4-day/$177.6 million running total) $22.5 million ($210 million) $12 million/$16.5 million ($231 million) $7 million ($240 million) $4 million ($246 million) $2 million ($249 million) $254 million DOM Of course, it could hit $20-20.5 million for today and tomorrow, remaining around $15-16 million for Wed-Thurs, then $17-19 million for Fri-Sat and $10-11 million on Sun. In which case, $275 million+ DOM might be in play.

I'd think Jumanji will perform slightly stronger than that. Its WOM has steadily grown over the last week and most everyone who wants to see TLJ will have seen it by 12/26, so that leaves room for Jumanji to grow and become a surprise blockbuster hit like NatM. $38 million/$51 million is my guess ($159 million DOM by 1/1)

A+ Logan Get Out Captain Underpants - The First Epic Movie A Spider-Man - Homecoming Star Wars - The Last Jedi Thor - Ragnorak A- Split Wonder Woman Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 The Big Sick B+ The Case for Christ The LEGO Batman Movie Coco Dunkirk B Cars 3 Logan Lucky A Dog's Purpose B- Monster Trucks Despicable Me 3 C+ Justice League Kong - Skull Island C The Boss Baby C- Going in Style D+ Beauty & the Beast F Wish Upon Still to See

Jumanji is performing solidly. Given the slightly divisive nature of TLJ, Greatest Showman's small 2-day opening and the other family films losing screens come today, I think it's on track for a $150 million+ DOM run. It depends on its jumps the next two weekends. Since most kids were in school this last week, it might see a bigger Fri/Sat than expected. $2 million $7.2 million $7.6 million $11.2 million $12.1 million $6 million $12.8 million ($29.3 million 3-day/$42.1 million 4-day/$58.9 million 6-day) $12.4 million $8.3 million $8.6 million $11.7 million ($100.9 million 10-day) $13.1 million $6.9 million $12.0 million ($31.7 million 3-day/$43.7 million 4-day/$132.9 million 13-day)

With WB distributing Paddington 2 in the US, it might also end up doing $80 million+ DOM like it deserves as opposed to the $50-65 million DOM from being a Weinstein production. With how awful Peter Rabbit looks, I hope Paddington 2 sneaks its way to $100 million DOM. If The Post get serious Oscar buzz (Best Picture + Best Actress frontrunner status), I could see Hidden Figures or Lincoln numbers, not Blind Side, though, since that was a zeitgeist phenomenon and 15:17 to Paris will kill some of its pre-Oscar momentum, I think. Still, $100 million DOM seems like a lock, given how empty MLK weekend and the following three weeks look.

If it weren't for Avengers 3/Solo/Deadpool 2 likely combining for $1 billion DOM the month before and JW2 likely aiming for $425 million+ DOM the weeks after, I'd say $450 million+ DOM should definitely happen. I know it'll be a PG-rated family film whereas the above are PG-13 or R, but The Avengers, Star Wars and Jurassic Park hold tremendous appeal with kids/families compared to other tentpoles. May-June 2018 reminds me of May-June 2007: 5 films likely doing $275 million+ DOM, plus a few smaller films vying for $100 million+ DOM (Ocean's 8, Tag). Still, even with 'just' above-average reception (75-80% on RT), $275-325 million DOM should happen, but that crowded marketplace could keep it from surpassing Inside Out's $355 million DOM.

With the phenomenal Sunday hold, I don't think the 20-minute short will keep it from reaching $225 million+ DOM. But I expect Disney will decide to remove it from screenings by either next weekend or the following weekend (there'll be ads pointing this out, too).

Lady Bird Call Me By Your Name Get Out Three Billboards in Ebbings, Missouri Dunkirk The Post The Disaster Artist I, Tonya Phantom Thread Alt #1: Wonder Alt #2: Darkest Hour Mod edit:remove spoiler tag

Wonder over JL would require a lot, I think. Justice League $38 million/$57 million ($163 million) $16 million ($186 million) $9 million ($200 million) $2.5 million ($204 million) $1 million/$1.5 million ($207 million) $0.75 million/$1 million ($209 million) $210 million DOM Wonder $32 million/$45 million ($81 million) $17 million ($104 million) $15.5 million ($125 million) $9 million ($137 million) $10 million/$14.5 million ($161 million) $12 million/$15.5 million ($189 million) $6.5 million ($197 million) $4.5 million/$6.25 million ($205 million) $2.5 million ($208 million) $1.5 million ($210 million) $215 million DOM Of course, it would require stronger legs than The Blind Side, but the A+ CinemaScore and the dearth of quality, appealing family movies since DM3 may give Wonder a boost to $200 million+ DOM.