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wileECoyote

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Everything posted by wileECoyote

  1. Still keeping slight hope of GotG2 400 alive at least for another day. AoU made another 78M after this point on but as can be seen GotG2 has been holding better. Of course AoU didn't have another CBM movie hitting it after Memorial Day weekend but I think Guardians' late legs will still be better overall.
  2. Mon-Mon is about -24% for GotG2. Good hold when looking at MCU comps: CA:CW -36% AoU -36% CA:WS -9% IM3 -31% TA -28%
  3. Disney shuffling the $$$ around. GotG2 Estimate Actual Fri $8,804,000 $8,717,079 Sat $15,040,000 $14,951,137 Sun $11,218,000 $10,985,538 BatB Estimate Actual Fri $625,000 $659,284 Sat $1,079,000 $1,137,124 Sun $699,000 $749,171
  4. Went up! Extra 270K in the bank.
  5. From Corpse @ World of KJ Weekend Estimates (05/20-21)01 (01) ¥414,000,000 ($3.7 million), -28%, ¥8,825,000,000 ($78.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK5 02 (03) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -36%, ¥6,100,000,000 ($54.5 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho) WK6 03 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Peach Girl (Shochiku) NEW 04 (02) ¥147,000,000 ($1.3 million), -41%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.9 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney) WK2 05 (04) ¥141,000,000 ($1.2 million), -38%, ¥3,425,000,000 ($31.1 million), The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa) WK4 06 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Arrival (Sony) NEW 07 (05) ¥94,000,000 ($840,000), -24%, ¥1,400,000,000 ($12.6 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho) WK4 08 (06) ¥66,000,000 ($595,000), -45%, ¥750,000,000 ($6.7 million), Memory (Toho) WK3 09 (---) ¥55,000,000 ($495,000), 0, ¥55,000,000 ($495,000), Your Eyes (Nikkatsu) NEW 10 (07) ¥39,000,000 ($350,000), -45%, ¥1,470,000,000 ($13.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Alien Shiriri (Toho) WK6>Beauty and the Beast successfully defended its position atop the box office, to claim its fifth-consecutive week at #1. It's hard to be "disappointed" with a sub-30% weekend hold, but the past dailies and this weekend's drop probably means the film isn't going to surpass Alice in Wonderland to become Disney's highest-grossing live-action film. It's doable, but it'll be an uphill climb for sure. It's still going to exceed ¥10 billion (~$90 million), no question about that and it's always a major achievement, and it will likely hit ¥11 billion (~$100 million), too, but it'll take several weeks, perhaps a month+, to challenge the top-tier of Disney live-action films -- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (¥10.90 billion), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (¥11.63 billion), and finally, Alice in Wonderland (¥11.80 billion). >Peach Girl, along with the rest of the Top 5, is in a very close race to see which film comes in second place and each subsequent ranking from #2-#5; they could all be less than ¥20 million ($180,000) apart. Wherever it places, its estimated debut is fine, and Shochiku is likely okay with it. The film is a live-action adaptation of shojo manga of the same name directed by Koji Shintoku. >Arrival didn't breakout as I was beginning to anticipate, but it still managed to sell ~27% of its weekend tickets, and that's nothing to scoff at and it surely would have opened a bit higher had Sony given it a wider release. Japan's results will at least get the film over the $100 million overseas and $200 million worldwide marks. >The bottom two spots in the Top 10 are very contested, and it could be any two of holdover Crayon Shin-chan, or the two openers, Your Eyes and Tatara Samurai. I believe Your Eyes will make it since a significant portion of its theaters are in rural regions, and they're largely unrepresented. It certainly did well enough in the urban regions, Kanto and Kansai, to be Top 10 eligible if the rural areas delivered. Looks like BatB fell harder than he forecast but still a good hold. Here's hoping it stabilizes to take out AiW.
  6. 2017 WORLDWIDE GROSSES Rank Title (click to view) Studio* Filter A24 BH Tilt BST BV CLF Fathom Focus Fox FoxS LG/S LGF ORF Par. PFR PNT SGem Sony SPC STX Uni. WB WB (NL) Wein. ALL Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % 1 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $1,221.8 $497.8 40.7% $724.0 59.3% 2 The Fate of the Furious Uni. $1,212.6 $219.9 18.1% $992.7 81.9% Congratulations to the 1.2B+ grossing movies. BatB just overtook IM3 WW. F8 not far behind.
  7. Rank* Title Friday 5/19 (Estimates) Saturday 5/20 (Estimates) Sunday 5/21 (Estimates) Monday 5/22 1 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 Buena Vista 4,347 $8,804,000 +138.2% / $2,025 $275,541,474 / 15 $15,040,000 +70.8% / $3,460 $290,581,474 / 16 $11,218,000 -25.4% / $2,581 $301,799,474 / 17 N/A 2 ALIEN: COVENANT Fox 3,761 $15,350,000 -- / $4,081 $15,350,000 / 1 $12,025,000 -21.7% / $3,197 $27,375,000 / 2 $8,625,000 -28.3% / $2,293 $36,000,000 / 3 N/A Weekend could still flip. GotG2 hold is a little generous but AC has been going lower ever since earlier projections.
  8. Your club isn't dead yet. Friday - previews for AC looks like 11 versus Prometheus which was 17.9 (21.466-3.56). Points to AC being more front loaded. And Prometheus' Saturday dropped from Friday - previews. If AC follows that pattern it could go as low as 33-34
  9. Daily Domestic Chart for Thursday May 18th, 2017 ← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Walt Disney $3,696,324 -7% 4,347 $850 $266,737,474 14 2 (2) Snatched 20th Century Fox $1,070,113 -12% 3,501 $306 $25,182,600 7 3 (3) King Arthur: Legend of the … Warner Bros. $941,462 -11% 3,702 $254 $20,351,221 7 4 (4) The Fate of the Furious Universal $323,505 -9% 3,067 $105 $216,710,300 35 5 (5) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $271,307 -4% 2,172 $125 $495,379,049 63 6 (6) The Boss Baby 20th Century Fox $233,457 -6% 2,911 $80 $163,352,550 49 7 (7) How to Be a Latin Lover Lionsgate $184,361 -16% 1,123 $164 $27,258,810 21 8 (9) Lowriders BH Tilt $114,260 -13% 295 $387 $3,028,385 7 9 (8) The Circle STX Entertainment $109,243 -26% 2,132 $51 $19,578,784 21 10 (10) Gifted Fox Searchlight $103,560 -17% 1,426 $73 $22,134,058 42 11 (12) Born in China Walt Disney $95,628 +8% 1,055 $91 $12,766,047 28 12 (11) Going in Style Warner Bros. $81,965 -9% 1,244 $66 $42,772,817 42 13 (13) Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony Pictures $71,384 -12% 1,605 $44 $42,492,004 42 14 (14) The Belko Experiment BH Tilt $53,915 +2% 74 $729 $10,157,605 63 - (-) The Zookeeper’s Wife Focus Features $39,275 +1% 425 $92 $16,607,716 49 - (-) Their Finest STX Entertainment
  10. Its going to be about 266-267 by Thursday giving it around an 83 for the week. So your talking about 104M extra or 1.25x the past week. To get that it needs about a constant weekly drop of around 44% for the next 7 weeks.
  11. Tues-Tues hold for GotG2 better than Mon-Mon. Not a definite pattern but good sign. Also, GotG2 OW multiplier has been increasing faster than CA:CW. BatB just keeps chugging. Should be at or close to 498M by end of this coming weekend and maybe 500 by end of Memorial Day weekend.
  12. Daily Domestic Chart for Monday May 15th, 2017 ← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Walt Disney $4,701,588 -77% 4,347 $1,082 $253,122,499 11 2 (2) Snatched 20th Century Fox $1,411,454 -82% 3,501 $403 $20,953,702 4 3 (3) King Arthur: Legend of the … Warner Bros. $1,256,137 -73% 3,702 $339 $16,627,407 4 4 (6) The Fate of the Furious Universal $385,320 -77% 3,067 $126 $215,520,095 32 5 (4) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $300,754 -84% 2,172 $138 $494,441,088 60 6 (5) How to Be a Latin Lover Lionsgate $263,770 -84% 1,123 $235 $26,515,669 18 7 (7) The Boss Baby 20th Century Fox $247,650 -83% 2,911 $85 $162,523,534 46 8 (8) Lowriders BH Tilt $178,705 -75% 295 $606 $2,582,590 4 9 (10) The Circle STX Entertainment $152,675 -73% 2,132 $72 $19,095,926 18 10 (9) Gifted Fox Searchlight $118,184 -80% 1,426 $83 $21,723,901 39 11 (13) Going in Style Warner Bros. $84,394 -77% 1,244 $68 $42,471,845 39 12 (14) Born in China Walt Disney $77,010 -75% 1,055 $73 $12,488,564 25 13 (12) Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony Pictures $76,751 -81% 1,605 $48 $42,231,588 39 - (-) The Belko Experiment BH Tilt $51,200 -13% 74 $692 $9,992,415 60 - (-) Get Out Universal $41,905 -62% 405 $103 $174,581,605 81 As expected sharper drops for the Mother's Day movies.
  13. Yeah daily numbers all went up from estimates BatB Estimate Actual Fri $960,000 $1,041,175 Sat $1,794,000 $1,911,337 Sun $1,106,000 $1,856,658 Same for GotG2 Estimate Actual Fri $16,427,000 $16,490,524 Sat $27,804,000 $27,879,884 Sun $18,776,000 $20,893,084
  14. http://deadline.com/2017/05/king-arthur-snatched-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-weekend-box-office-1202091662/ Monday AM, 7:11AM: Yesterday was a day for moms at the movies with 20th Century Fox’s R-rated comedy Snatched grossing $8.05M and repping an amazing Sunday B.O. boost of 25% over Saturday for a final opening take of $19.5M in second place. And Snatched wasn’t the only movie getting a hug from mom: Pantelion/Lionsgate’s How to Be a Latin Lover jumped 24% over Saturday with $1.69M and Disney’s Beauty and the Beast upticked 1% with $1.8M. Typically, we see very good holds on Mother’s Day in the form of dips for chick pics — i.e. 2015’s Hot Pursuit (-2%) and The Age of Adaline (-4%) or 2014’s The Other Women (-16%)– but last year, this boost trend for the holiday began when Garry Marshall’s final movie Mother’s Day in its second weekend saw a +60% surge vs. Saturday on the femme holiday with $5.6M. Though critics didn’t like Amy Schumer’s latest outing as much as her cinematic debut Trainwreck, (respective Rotten Tomatoes ratings 36% rotten to 85% certified fresh), the comedy plays significantly better with audiences, not to mention it’s pulling older audiences who are fans of star Goldie Hawn. Snatched reps Hawn’s return to the big screen in 15 years following 2002’s The Banger Sisters. Snatched is produced by Chernin Entertainment and FeigeCo. In addition, the weekend’s No. 1 movie Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and clunker King Arthur: Legend of the Sword also look to be coming in better than expected respectively with $65M and $15.4M over three days. GOTG2 saw an estimated $20.9M Sunday, -25%, while Guy Ritchie’s latest drew $4.6M, -16% from Saturday. No word on F8 or BB so I guess they're around estimates.
  15. BatB. It appears to be still going strong in Japan and its 7-10M in the tank DOM. F8 has been closing the gap but the pace has slowed down a lot.
  16. Disney is being very conservative with its Sunday holds again, GotG2 -35% and BatB -38.4%. Actuals should be higher.
  17. BatB @1.2B+ Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $493,191,164 40.9% + Foreign: $713,300,000 59.1% = Worldwide: $1,206,491,164
  18. Personally I see 66ish 2nd weekend but a 70+ wouldn't surprise me. GotG2 OW had signs of it being more family friendly and Mother's Day should give it a boost.
  19. Would tend to agree with this except that BatB will have the harshest TC drop -19%, of its run, so far. I'm expecting the Friday bump to be more muted than before but the Sunday drop should be softer. Either way, 500 is pretty much a done deal. A solid run for a movie that didn't the advantage of Holiday or Summer boosts.
  20. I doubt it'll drop. Disney is estimating a steeper Sunday drop (-48.3%) than the rest of the top 10, unlike the previous weekends. In fact I think it could rise with actual. Amazing to see a movie from India up there. I asked a friend what she knew about it and she laughed that she never even heard of it. But she's from Delhi so I guess the audience is very regional based.
  21. http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-fate-of-the-furious-baahubali-2-china-international-box-office-1202079772/ So 1.25B is the target. When should we know if Japan can get it passed Frozen?
  22. Saw no Thursday thread so... Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) The Fate of the Furious Universal $1,940,625 -8% 4,329 $448 $173,331,575 14 2 (2) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $661,724 n/c 3,315 $200 $473,700,233 42 3 (3) The Boss Baby 20th Century Fox $526,268 -2% 3,697 $142 $139,415,584 28 4 (4) Going in Style Warner Bros. $451,267 -5% 3,038 $149 $33,739,770 21 5 (6) Born in China Walt Disney $370,517 -3% 1,508 $246 $6,434,031 7 6 (5) Gifted Fox Searchlight $364,137 -6% 1,986 $183 $12,530,025 21 7 (7) Unforgettable Warner Bros. $356,102 -5% 2,417 $147 $6,538,819 7 8 (8) The Promise Open Road $262,276 -28% 2,251 $117 $5,624,018 7 9 (9) Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony Pictures $219,167 -1% 2,737 $80 $34,419,501 21 10 (10) The Zookeeper’s Wife Focus Features $148,975 -4% 1,033 $144 $13,816,195 28 11 (11) Get Out Universal $117,475 -4% 965 $122 $170,824,010 63 12 (12) Phoenix Forgotten Entertainment Studi… $100,328 -17% 1,633 $61 $2,361,486 7 13 (13) Kong: Skull Island Warner Bros. $97,489 -4% 1,203 $81 $164,365,386 49 14 (-) Ghost in the Shell Paramount Pictures $86,142 -6% 913 $94 $39,511,668 28 - (14) Free Fire A24
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