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Posts posted by wileECoyote
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29 minutes ago, Finnick said:
GUARDIANS LOWER WITH $0.6M, BATB HIGHER WITH $0.14M, ONLY 2$M TO JOIN THE $500M CLUB, WOW!!
KING ARTHUR UP WITH ACTUAL $0.3M, BETTER HOLD TO SAVE SOME FACE!!! EE LOWER WITH $0.3M? GOOD NUMBER FOR THE YA MOVIE.
2 (1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Walt Disney $34,653,754 -47% 4,347 $7,972 $301,391,228 17 9 (5) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $2,545,579 -47% 1,792 $1,421 $497,924,628 66 3 new Everything, Everything Warner Bros. $11,727,390 2,801 $4,187 $11,727,390 3 6 (3) King Arthur: Legend of the … Warner Bros. $7,152,269 -53% 3,702 $1,932 $27,503,490 10 Disney shuffling the $$$ around.
GotG2
Estimate Actual
Fri $8,804,000 $8,717,079
Sat $15,040,000 $14,951,137
Sun $11,218,000 $10,985,538
BatB
Estimate Actual
Fri $625,000 $659,284
Sat $1,079,000 $1,137,124
Sun $699,000 $749,171
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5 hours ago, Olive said:
Weekend actuals
BATB 434.5M , -24% , 8.92B yen
Went up! Extra 270K in the bank.
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From Corpse @ World of KJ
Weekend Estimates (05/20-21)
01 (01) ¥414,000,000 ($3.7 million), -28%, ¥8,825,000,000 ($78.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK5
02 (03) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -36%, ¥6,100,000,000 ($54.5 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho) WK6
03 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Peach Girl (Shochiku) NEW
04 (02) ¥147,000,000 ($1.3 million), -41%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.9 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney) WK2
05 (04) ¥141,000,000 ($1.2 million), -38%, ¥3,425,000,000 ($31.1 million), The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa) WK4
06 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Arrival (Sony) NEW
07 (05) ¥94,000,000 ($840,000), -24%, ¥1,400,000,000 ($12.6 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho) WK4
08 (06) ¥66,000,000 ($595,000), -45%, ¥750,000,000 ($6.7 million), Memory (Toho) WK3
09 (---) ¥55,000,000 ($495,000), 0, ¥55,000,000 ($495,000), Your Eyes (Nikkatsu) NEW
10 (07) ¥39,000,000 ($350,000), -45%, ¥1,470,000,000 ($13.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Alien Shiriri (Toho) WK6
>Beauty and the Beast successfully defended its position atop the box office, to claim its fifth-consecutive week at #1. It's hard to be "disappointed" with a sub-30% weekend hold, but the past dailies and this weekend's drop probably means the film isn't going to surpass Alice in Wonderland to become Disney's highest-grossing live-action film. It's doable, but it'll be an uphill climb for sure.
It's still going to exceed ¥10 billion (~$90 million), no question about that and it's always a major achievement, and it will likely hit ¥11 billion (~$100 million), too, but it'll take several weeks, perhaps a month+, to challenge the top-tier of Disney live-action films -- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (¥10.90 billion), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (¥11.63 billion), and finally, Alice in Wonderland (¥11.80 billion).
>Peach Girl, along with the rest of the Top 5, is in a very close race to see which film comes in second place and each subsequent ranking from #2-#5; they could all be less than ¥20 million ($180,000) apart. Wherever it places, its estimated debut is fine, and Shochiku is likely okay with it. The film is a live-action adaptation of shojo manga of the same name directed by Koji Shintoku.
>Arrival didn't breakout as I was beginning to anticipate, but it still managed to sell ~27% of its weekend tickets, and that's nothing to scoff at and it surely would have opened a bit higher had Sony given it a wider release. Japan's results will at least get the film over the $100 million overseas and $200 million worldwide marks.
>The bottom two spots in the Top 10 are very contested, and it could be any two of holdover Crayon Shin-chan, or the two openers, Your Eyes and Tatara Samurai. I believe Your Eyes will make it since a significant portion of its theaters are in rural regions, and they're largely unrepresented. It certainly did well enough in the urban regions, Kanto and Kansai, to be Top 10 eligible if the rural areas delivered.Looks like BatB fell harder than he forecast but still a good hold. Here's hoping it stabilizes to take out AiW.
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2017 WORLDWIDE GROSSES
Rank Title (click to view) Studio* Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % 1 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $1,221.8 $497.8 40.7% $724.0 59.3% 2 The Fate of the Furious Uni. $1,212.6 $219.9 18.1% $992.7 81.9% - 2
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Rank* Title Friday
5/19
(Estimates)Saturday
5/20
(Estimates)Sunday
5/21
(Estimates)Monday
5/221 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2
Buena Vista
4,347$8,804,000
+138.2% / $2,025
$275,541,474 / 15$15,040,000
+70.8% / $3,460
$290,581,474 / 16$11,218,000
-25.4% / $2,581
$301,799,474 / 17
N/A2 ALIEN: COVENANT
Fox
3,761$15,350,000
-- / $4,081
$15,350,000 / 1$12,025,000
-21.7% / $3,197
$27,375,000 / 2$8,625,000
-28.3% / $2,293
$36,000,000 / 3
N/AWeekend could still flip. GotG2 hold is a little generous but AC has been going lower ever since earlier projections.
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33 minutes ago, DeeCee said:
36m is what I went with in my club. After the Australian opening I think I had the broad range as $35-40m. I may have been to optimistic with GOTG2.
Your club isn't dead yet. Friday - previews for AC looks like 11 versus Prometheus which was 17.9 (21.466-3.56). Points to AC being more front loaded. And Prometheus' Saturday dropped from Friday - previews. If AC follows that pattern it could go as low as 33-34
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Daily Domestic Chart for Thursday May 18th, 2017
← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Walt Disney $3,696,324 -7% 4,347 $850 $266,737,474 14 2 (2) Snatched 20th Century Fox $1,070,113 -12% 3,501 $306 $25,182,600 7 3 (3) King Arthur: Legend of the … Warner Bros. $941,462 -11% 3,702 $254 $20,351,221 7 4 (4) The Fate of the Furious Universal $323,505 -9% 3,067 $105 $216,710,300 35 5 (5) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $271,307 -4% 2,172 $125 $495,379,049 63 6 (6) The Boss Baby 20th Century Fox $233,457 -6% 2,911 $80 $163,352,550 49 7 (7) How to Be a Latin Lover Lionsgate $184,361 -16% 1,123 $164 $27,258,810 21 8 (9) Lowriders BH Tilt $114,260 -13% 295 $387 $3,028,385 7 9 (8) The Circle STX Entertainment $109,243 -26% 2,132 $51 $19,578,784 21 10 (10) Gifted Fox Searchlight $103,560 -17% 1,426 $73 $22,134,058 42 11 (12) Born in China Walt Disney $95,628 +8% 1,055 $91 $12,766,047 28 12 (11) Going in Style Warner Bros. $81,965 -9% 1,244 $66 $42,772,817 42 13 (13) Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony Pictures $71,384 -12% 1,605 $44 $42,492,004 42 14 (14) The Belko Experiment BH Tilt $53,915 +2% 74 $729 $10,157,605 63 - (-) The Zookeeper’s Wife Focus Features $39,275 +1% 425 $92 $16,607,716 49 - (-) Their Finest STX Entertainment - 2
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3 hours ago, YourMother said:
Does anyone know what kind of holds GV2 needs for $370M domestic? @a2knet?
Its going to be about 266-267 by Thursday giving it around an 83 for the week. So your talking about 104M extra or 1.25x the past week. To get that it needs about a constant weekly drop of around 44% for the next 7 weeks.
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18 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
GotG2: $5,946,795 (+26%)
BatB: $383,537 (+28%) Tues-Tues hold for GotG2 better than Mon-Mon. Not a definite pattern but good sign. Also, GotG2 OW multiplier has been increasing faster than CA:CW.
BatB just keeps chugging. Should be at or close to 498M by end of this coming weekend and maybe 500 by end of Memorial Day weekend.
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Daily Domestic Chart for Monday May 15th, 2017
← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 Walt Disney $4,701,588 -77% 4,347 $1,082 $253,122,499 11 2 (2) Snatched 20th Century Fox $1,411,454 -82% 3,501 $403 $20,953,702 4 3 (3) King Arthur: Legend of the … Warner Bros. $1,256,137 -73% 3,702 $339 $16,627,407 4 4 (6) The Fate of the Furious Universal $385,320 -77% 3,067 $126 $215,520,095 32 5 (4) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $300,754 -84% 2,172 $138 $494,441,088 60 6 (5) How to Be a Latin Lover Lionsgate $263,770 -84% 1,123 $235 $26,515,669 18 7 (7) The Boss Baby 20th Century Fox $247,650 -83% 2,911 $85 $162,523,534 46 8 (8) Lowriders BH Tilt $178,705 -75% 295 $606 $2,582,590 4 9 (10) The Circle STX Entertainment $152,675 -73% 2,132 $72 $19,095,926 18 10 (9) Gifted Fox Searchlight $118,184 -80% 1,426 $83 $21,723,901 39 11 (13) Going in Style Warner Bros. $84,394 -77% 1,244 $68 $42,471,845 39 12 (14) Born in China Walt Disney $77,010 -75% 1,055 $73 $12,488,564 25 13 (12) Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony Pictures $76,751 -81% 1,605 $48 $42,231,588 39 - (-) The Belko Experiment BH Tilt $51,200 -13% 74 $692 $9,992,415 60 - (-) Get Out Universal $41,905 -62% 405 $103 $174,581,605 81 As expected sharper drops for the Mother's Day movies.
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10 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
Wow, Beauty and the Beast won a weekend over Boss Baby for once.
Yeah daily numbers all went up from estimates
BatB
Estimate Actual
Fri $960,000 $1,041,175
Sat $1,794,000 $1,911,337
Sun $1,106,000 $1,856,658Same for GotG2
Estimate Actual
Fri $16,427,000 $16,490,524
Sat $27,804,000 $27,879,884
Sun $18,776,000 $20,893,084
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Monday AM, 7:11AM: Yesterday was a day for moms at the movies with 20th Century Fox’s R-rated comedy Snatched grossing $8.05M and repping an amazing Sunday B.O. boost of 25% over Saturday for a final opening take of $19.5M in second place. And Snatched wasn’t the only movie getting a hug from mom: Pantelion/Lionsgate’s How to Be a Latin Lover jumped 24% over Saturday with $1.69M and Disney’s Beauty and the Beast upticked 1% with $1.8M.
Typically, we see very good holds on Mother’s Day in the form of dips for chick pics — i.e. 2015’s Hot Pursuit (-2%) and The Age of Adaline (-4%) or 2014’s The Other Women (-16%)– but last year, this boost trend for the holiday began when Garry Marshall’s final movie Mother’s Day in its second weekend saw a +60% surge vs. Saturday on the femme holiday with $5.6M.
Though critics didn’t like Amy Schumer’s latest outing as much as her cinematic debut Trainwreck, (respective Rotten Tomatoes ratings 36% rotten to 85% certified fresh), the comedy plays significantly better with audiences, not to mention it’s pulling older audiences who are fans of star Goldie Hawn. Snatched reps Hawn’s return to the big screen in 15 years following 2002’s The Banger Sisters. Snatched is produced by Chernin Entertainment and FeigeCo.
In addition, the weekend’s No. 1 movie Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and clunker King Arthur: Legend of the Sword also look to be coming in better than expected respectively with $65M and $15.4M over three days. GOTG2 saw an estimated $20.9M Sunday, -25%, while Guy Ritchie’s latest drew $4.6M, -16% from Saturday.
No word on F8 or BB so I guess they're around estimates.
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2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
Who will win? BatB or F8? Now the beast have a more chance
BatB. It appears to be still going strong in Japan and its 7-10M in the tank DOM. F8 has been closing the gap but the pace has slowed down a lot.
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Disney is being very conservative with its Sunday holds again, GotG2 -35% and BatB -38.4%. Actuals should be higher.
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BatB @1.2B+
Total Lifetime GrossesDomestic: $493,191,164 40.9% + Foreign: $713,300,000 59.1%
= Worldwide: $1,206,491,164 - 6
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Personally I see 66ish 2nd weekend but a 70+ wouldn't surprise me. GotG2 OW had signs of it being more family friendly and Mother's Day should give it a boost.
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5 hours ago, MikeQ said:
Beauty and the Beast is down only 20.6% from last week. If Mother's Day is kind to it, it could have an especially strong weekend coming up.
Peace,
Mike
Would tend to agree with this except that BatB will have the harshest TC drop -19%, of its run, so far. I'm expecting the Friday bump to be more muted than before but the Sunday drop should be softer.
Either way, 500 is pretty much a done deal. A solid run for a movie that didn't the advantage of Holiday or Summer boosts.
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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:
I hope BatB doesn't drop with actuals again. That movie has done and is still doing great but boy the obstacles it has to overcome! OS fight to stay ahead of F8 and maybe pass Frozen. Domestic fight to hit 500M. It's quite a rollercoaster.
I doubt it'll drop. Disney is estimating a steeper Sunday drop (-48.3%) than the rest of the top 10, unlike the previous weekends. In fact I think it could rise with actual.
Amazing to see a movie from India up there. I asked a friend what she knew about it and she laughed that she never even heard of it. But she's from Delhi so I guess the audience is very regional based.
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Quote
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
So 1.25B is the target. When should we know if Japan can get it passed Frozen?
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Saw no Thursday thread so...
Movie Distributor
Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) The Fate of the Furious Universal $1,940,625 -8% 4,329 $448 $173,331,575 14 2 (2) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $661,724 n/c 3,315 $200 $473,700,233 42 3 (3) The Boss Baby 20th Century Fox $526,268 -2% 3,697 $142 $139,415,584 28 4 (4) Going in Style Warner Bros. $451,267 -5% 3,038 $149 $33,739,770 21 5 (6) Born in China Walt Disney $370,517 -3% 1,508 $246 $6,434,031 7 6 (5) Gifted Fox Searchlight $364,137 -6% 1,986 $183 $12,530,025 21 7 (7) Unforgettable Warner Bros. $356,102 -5% 2,417 $147 $6,538,819 7 8 (8) The Promise Open Road $262,276 -28% 2,251 $117 $5,624,018 7 9 (9) Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony Pictures $219,167 -1% 2,737 $80 $34,419,501 21 10 (10) The Zookeeper’s Wife Focus Features $148,975 -4% 1,033 $144 $13,816,195 28 11 (11) Get Out Universal $117,475 -4% 965 $122 $170,824,010 63 12 (12) Phoenix Forgotten Entertainment Studi… $100,328 -17% 1,633 $61 $2,361,486 7 13 (13) Kong: Skull Island Warner Bros. $97,489 -4% 1,203 $81 $164,365,386 49 14 (-) Ghost in the Shell Paramount Pictures $86,142 -6% 913 $94 $39,511,668 28 - (14) Free Fire A24 - 2
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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:
Sheesh the Wednesday drops are bad this week.
Tuesday jumps just exaggerate the drops. Mon and Wed. comparisons seem in line.
Looks like holdovers are going to have a strong holds this weekend. BatB should be at or near 480 by the end of the weekend.
Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) The Fate of the Furious Universal $2,111,370 -40% 4,329 $488 $171,390,950 13 2 (2) Beauty and the Beast Walt Disney $662,700 -31% 3,315 $200 $473,038,509 41 3 (3) The Boss Baby 20th Century Fox $535,749 -37% 3,697 $145 $138,889,316 27 4 (4) Going in Style Warner Bros. $474,338 -34% 3,038 $156 $33,288,503 20 5 (5) Gifted Fox Searchlight $385,914 -40% 1,986 $194 $12,165,888 20 - (7) Born in China Walt Disney $383,139 -28% 1,508 $254 $6,063,514 6 7 (6) Unforgettable Warner Bros. $373,379 -42% 2,417 $154 $6,182,717 6 8 (8) The Promise Open Road $364,272 -20% 2,251 $162 $5,361,742 6 9 (9) Smurfs: The Lost Village Sony Pictures $220,617 -36% 2,737 $81 $34,200,334 20 10 (10) The Zookeeper’s Wife Focus Features $155,735 -27% 1,033 $151 $13,667,220 27 11 (12) Get Out Universal $122,240 -20% 965 $127 $170,706,535 62 12 (11) Phoenix Forgotten Entertainment Studi… $120,284 -35% 1,633 $74 $2,261,158 6 13 (14) Kong: Skull Island Warner Bros. $101,085 -29% 1,203 $84 $164,267,897 48 14 (13) Free Fire A24 $91,564 -37% 1,070 $86 $1,336,028 6
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So guessing
DOM 471 + 35 (thinking this is reasonable if it tracks like Cinderella)
OS-Japan 616.2 + 40
Japan 12.8 + 80
1.25B+. Outside shot at Frozen?
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8 minutes ago, baumer said:
That's a monstrous drop. BvS didn't even fall that much.
Are we looking at a 70% drop this weekend?
I have a feeling discount Tuesday exaggerates the drop but still a nasty fall nonetheless. Also, BvS had the luxury of having an early Easter so having more kids out could have softened up it's drop. I wouldn't be surprised with around a 65%+ drop this weekend though.
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6 hours ago, Valonqar said:
That's exactly how the reaction is all over the Net. TFA teaser >>>>> TLJ teaser, TLJ poster >>>>> TLJ teaser, where are the new characters? where are characters who aren't Rey?
Heh Well I wouldn't say >>>>. More like they liked it better. They still loved the trailer overall but it's hard to beat "Chewie. We're home" Although that was the second teaser, that was the one most were comparing TLJ teaser to instead of the first one.
But yeah for the most part, I think attendees understood it was just a teaser. Personally I had the same reaction but I'm expecting more later on so I'm good to go.
Monday #'s (Canadian Holiday softened a lot of drops)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Mon-Mon is about -24% for GotG2. Good hold when looking at MCU comps:
CA:CW -36%
AoU -36%
CA:WS -9%
IM3 -31%
TA -28%