Chrestomanci

boxoffice.com is starting to put actuals up. So farLes Mis - $7,611,870 (+22%)This is 40 - $3,657,070 (+45%)BD2 - $604,980 (+58%)

Thanks for finding this out! (I assume that means the marathons from Saturday since there weren't any Friday marathons that I know of.)

Thanks!

Is that for just Raiders or is it for the Indy Marathon and Raiders re-release combined?Edit: From the way it's listed on boxoffice.com, I gather it's not a number for the marathon alone, but the question of whether it includes the marathon still stands. And, if not, is there anyway to find out how the marathon did?

You're right that better than usually expected holds over the weekend are possible if today was deflated by the shooting, but much of the audience decides to set that aside and go see the movie on Saturday or Sunday. But my guess would be that if there really was a significant amount of discomfort about going to the movie on Friday, whether due to fear of copycats or just not being in the mood for a fairly dark movie under the circumstances, that is unlikely to dissipate overnight.Honestly, if the shooting really had much negative impact at all on the box office for TDKR today, I would expect the impact to be greater on Saturday, not less. I don't work for a theater, so this is just a guess, but it seems likely that a significant portion of the non-midnight pre-sales that this movie had were for opening day and that there are far fewer for Saturday and even less for Sunday. Which means that Saturday and Sunday's numbers will be far more dependent on walk-ups than Friday's was and walk up business is precisely where the effects of the shooting would be felt. (Despite some comments about people returning pre-bought tickets, I doubt most people are aware that's even an option.) Basically, Friday's number was probably shielded to some extent from the effects of the shooting, but Saturday and Sunday will most likely have much less protection.So if audiences did feel uncomfortable about seeing TDKR today and they don't suddenly change their minds about that tomorrow, then the internal multipliers people are expecting for the weekend might in fact be too high, not too low.

The thing is, these aren't actually the theaters that these movies are losing on Friday, but the theaters that they will have lost since last Friday. Consider The Avengers for instance, it had 1757 theaters last weekend, but only 1352 yesterday. So while 1125 will be a drop of 632 theaters from last weekend, it will only be losing 227 theaters on Friday. So the answer is that ASM is getting (or, rather, has already gotten) those other screens.

From that number for The Vow, one would have to guess that they underestimated the Sunday drop, since otherwise they're predicting a drop of nearly 57% on Monday and I can't see any reason for it to fall that hard. No movie fell over 50% on President's Day last year and the only reason movies dropped so hard on President's Day in 2010 was that it was the day after Valentine's Day.

Journey 2's estimated 26.5% drop for the 3-day weekend actually isn't too far off from G&J's 24.5% drop. We'll have to see the daily breakdown to see whether Journey 2 is more likely to increase or decrease with actuals and how well it would have to hold on Monday for the four day weekend to be basically flat with last weekend (as G&J's was).

Here are some more and/or more exact numbers from boxoffice.com:Safe House - $23.969M (-40%)The Vow - $23.6M (-43%)GR2 - $22MTMW - $17.55MTPM - $7.865M (-65%)Chronicle - $7.5M (-38%)TWiB - $6.645M (-34%)Descendants - $2.925M (-15%)Big Miracle - $2.132M (-46%)Red Tails - $1.415M (-41%)

Glad to be of assistance.

boxoffice.com has more exact 3-day estimates for Journey 2 and Arietty and also has estimates for some of the Oscar nominees:Journey 2 - $20.085M (-27%)Arietty - $6.375MArtist - $2.325M (+4%)Iron Lady - $1.034M (-11%)EL&IC - $640K (-57%)TTSS - $476K (-13%)MWWM - $179K (-14%)

You're welcome, but I'd suggest you change back the title of the thread (which is now misleading because the TMW, TPM and Arietty numbers are also clearly new and might discourage people from looking at the thread until you change it again since it promises so little new info) and just remove the ERC (not studio) estimates for Vow, SH and GR2 from your original post. (And you can verify for yourself that those three numbers are old by looking at the timestamp on the Facebook page.)

More (presumably official, presumably 3-day) weekend estimates from ERC:TMW - $17.5MTPM - $7.8M

The Journey 2 number is fresh information, but the rest are ERC's personal estimates that they posted yesterday morning based on just the studios' Friday estimates. So IMO they don't really belong in the first post of a thread which I assume is meant for the studio weekend estimates.

BOM has the official studio Friday estimates up. They match the boxoffice.com numbers. So who knows where ERC pulled their numbers from, possibly an earlier round of estimates?

That may be true, but if the numbers are coming directly from the studios, they ought to match exactly. Even if it were a rounding issue, where one site tended to round up and the other to round down, that wouldn't explain it, since ERC is higher on The Vow but lower on TMW.

Hmm, boxoffice.com's twitter has different official estimates for these movies:The Vow - $7.4MTMW - $5.6MArietty - $1.704MI probably trust boxoffice.com over ERC. We'll see what BOM posts later today.

More official Friday estimates from ERC on twitter:The Vow - $7.5MTMW - $5.5MArietty - $1.75M

You have made your opinion abundantly clear all night. That does not mean that no one else has the right to express an opinion and I didn't even really do that, just suggested another possibility which still seems to fit the given evidence. You think that this is being fueled by fanboys and I certainly agree that that is a possibility or even a probability, and said as much. However, I've also known enough little kids who are into Star Wars and enough adults who are huge fans but think the prequels stink to question whether another explanation might be possible. You've been complaining that the people who were overpredicting it won't acknowledge that they were wrong if it fails to meet their expectations -- I acknowledge right there in my post that if it decreases on Saturday that will be because the fanboys rushed to see it. What I haven't seen all night, even when the estimates were increasing, was you acknowledging any possibility that you could be wrong. I think that you're the one who needs to "let it go;" whether or not you turn out to be right, this movie failing and proving everybody who was pleased by the numbers tonight wrong seems to be way too important to you.

I'm sure that explanation is probably the right one, but there is another possibility that has me wondering . . . Nikki actually increased her estimate at around 9:30 or 10 PM Eastern, 6:30 or 7 PM Pacific, before downgrading it much later in the evening. That suggests to me that late afternoon and early evening business was probably pretty good and it was only the later evening shows that didn't do so well. Fanboys rushing to see it could account for it, but that would also be the pattern if it was skewing much more kiddie than fanboy. This movie has alot of appeal for families with young children and those families are not going to go to a late evening show after a long day of work and school; if they couldn't get to it in the afternoon or early evening, they'd probably wait for the weekend. So I guess tomorrow will tell the tale -- a decrease will indicate fanboy frontloading, a fairly significant increase would indicate that it's drawing more kids and families than fanboys and a small increase would probably indicate some kind of balance between the two.Of course, I have no idea why Journey 2 should apparently have more adult appeal than TPM. Regardless of what TPM is doing and why, I really can't begin to guess why Journey 2 should do so well with the late night crowds after a weak afternoon and early evening.

Updated Friday estimates from Nikki:Vow - $15MSafe House - $14MTPM - $9MJourney 2 - $6.5M (<-- that's some increase from earlier estimates)Chronicle - $3.6MWiB - $3.1MGrey - $1.3MBig Miracle - $952KDescendants - $941KRed Tails - $746K

Nikki just updated. Interestingly, she increased the Friday number for Phantom Menace, but decreased the weekend number, LOL. Anyway, here's her latest:Safe House - $14M Friday, $38M wkndThe Vow - $13M Friday, $36M wkndTPM - $12M Friday, $28M wkndJourney 2 - $5M Friday, $18M wknd

:wub:Thanks so much! I do try to put some thought and/or research into most of my posts, so that's really great to hear.

Underworld Awakening has done quite respectably, especially for movies around this time of year. But it's certainly not huge by any means. If you look at the list of 3D movies on BOM, there have only been 12 wide release 3D movies since the beginning of September and only one of them, Puss in Boots, has made over $100M. If you look at the September 2010 through January 2011 period, there were 13 wide release 3D movies (I could have sworn that the difference was bigger), but six of them made over $100M and a 7th came very close (Green Hornet).

I have no evidence to the contrary. But it does seem to me that there have been fewer 3D movies in the past few months and those that there have been haven't been huge.