RyneOh1040

i also think it's actually continuing and expanding that dominance into this decade... i have SO many friends who found the series in their early to mid 20's and honestly love it as much i have since i was 11. it also seems to have a more even split between the male and female fans, which is another really unique property to the series.

god dammit, RETWEET.

it's all perspective. it depends on what we're discussing. the film is a massive hit that will make massive amounts of money. the film also opened during the holiday season and will have a bad multiplier. yes, bad, given the PERSPECTIVE. when the film came out opening weekend, and CRUSHED it, EVERYONE in here threw out historical patterns when WOM was discussed. 'It can't get below a 3.5x! It's impossible it's the holidays! 800 is happening! A sure thing!'. But then dailys started coming in, it followed NONE of the patterns we've seen before (dropping on Friday and staying flat is straight up shocking) and the same people who cried history will prevail started saying 'well, actually, weve never had a 220 opener before that wasnt a cultural phenomenon this is doing what it should'. It can't have bad WOM because Cinemascore and Comscore say so, and also Jumanji is now being deemed a cultural phenomenon (lol) because it's going to hit 300 (basically what Sing did to RO, which by the way held up fine) and the run time! the run time! So yes, to some of us the run post OW is disappointing. The same way Ultron's was. Because we aren't moving the goal post every time a new variable might come into play.

Yeah, I tried to talk to him about it and I appreciated his responses but to care so much about empirical data I feel like he's just looking at Cinemascore/Comscore and reading the room completely wrong. Can't see the forest-type thing.

Yeah I think for me, at this point, I'm over defending or discussing the fact that because 'ComScore' (whatever the hell it is) and CinemaScore say so, WOM isn't mixed. The numbers have reflected that since OW and some of you have given credit to other variables (runtime, Jumanji overperfromance) while refusing to acknowledge it. It's bad analysis and if we can't agree on it it's not something worth discussing anymore. As for Jumanji, I think one thing we often forget here in this bubble is the GA appeal of actors like The Rock and Kevin Hart. The film is a lot of fun and the perfect holiday option but it can't be understated that these are two of the biggest draws right now in a crowd-pleasing, PG13 film. Gotta give credit where credit is due and the two of them (between their social media antics) and understanding of their crowd base is getting people in seats.

good post. and you're right, the evidence isn't there yet. i think the issue i'm and some others are having is that we have been hearing all of these other reasons why the numbers are lower (i.e. Jumanji, run time, etc) but when reception is discussed it's dismissed because the polls show it's not true. and it's one of those things where for you it is seemingly obvious that that's NOT a contributing factor for others of us it seems like the MAIN contributing factor based on our social experiences (which our anecdotal but nonetheless our experiences). and just because I'm not sure, what metrics do you rely on for gauging audience reception. Not RT or Cinemascore, but what else is out there to show national polling on this?

fair.

Yes it's anecdotal, for sure. But we've seen that anecdotal evidence repeated far and wide. Even something as simple as Twitter opening night was just a blood bath for the most part. I know you're a man of empirical evidence and I really respect that. But I just don't know how you can see the numbers the past few days and ignore the fact that WOM might not be what you think. Or at least allow it to be a part of the discussion.

hear, hear!

yeah this makes no sense to me. i honestly had never even heard of ComScore and i'd love to know more but I'm confused why multiple users here who have posted for years are just being dismissed when they say WOM is mixed, when that's their experience. i mean, what would it take to make you think WOM isn't fantastic? run time shouldn't be the issue it's being made out to be, and Jumanji and this should easily be able to coexist.

5 cities to represent the entire US is fair sample size? cool, cool. also maybe try to play it a little cooler when responding to people???

i feel like the hyperbole is running in both directions here, though. i think literally one poster has said that it would make less than 500 and I'm pretty certain they're a newbie. so, it's an extremist point of view. And I think when we discuss disappointments don't we have to always speak in perspective? Is a film that's going to clear 650 US and probably 1.5 billion WW a disappointment? HELL NO. But the numbers have been underwhelming since OW when it clearly burned off a lot of demand, and has since abandoned a lot of historical patterns. I think you could certainly say the run has been boring since then and the multiplier is certainly teetering on the edge of meh to disappointing. So there are aspects of its run that ARE empirically a bit disappointing. Still, I understand the essence of what you're saying and I agree. But I do think distinction is important here.

ah yes, facts.

lol, i never said anything about RT, fam. but the sample sizes for cinemascore are INSANELY low. Thirty-five to 45 teams of CinemaScore representatives are present in 25 large cities across North America. Each Friday, representatives in five randomly chosen cities give opening-day audiences a small survey card.[6][7][8] The card asks for age, gender, a grade for the film between A+ and F, whether they would rent or buy the film on DVD or Blu-ray, and why they chose the film.[7] CinemaScore typically receives about 400 cards per film;[9]the company estimates a 65% response rate and 6% margin of error.[8] The ratings are divided by gender and age groups (under 21, 21–34, 35 and up).[4] Film studios and other subscribers receive the data at about 11 p.m. Pacific Time. CinemaScore publishes letter grades to the public on social media and, although the detailed data is proprietary, the grades quickly spread widely throughout the media and the industry, as studio executives brag about successes and mock competitors' failures. Subsequent advertisements for highly ranked films often cite their CinemaScore grades.[7][9][8]

if you mean Cinemascore it is literally about as unscientific as it gets.

I really appreciate people like Empire giving us early numbers and taking the time to essentially give us raw data. And I don't think attacking him (even when he's wrong) is the way to go about this. I ALSO don't think when users (especially regulars) in this forum post an unpopular opinion that they should be shit on. By anyone. From anywhere. Disagreeing is one thing, but the week TLJ came out I, along with MovieMan and a handful of others posted that what WE were seeing in our small sample sizes of friends, colleagues and theaters was a lot of mixed opinions. And how that might affect the box office. Some of us were effectively called idiots for daring to think it might not have the legs it historically should have. And for me, it crossed a line. I followed the forums at Mojo religiously since I was 14 (I'm 29 now) and that was the most bummed and insulted I had ever been here. That kind of stuff goes nowhere and just makes this place something it doesn't need to be. When you're wrong, just say you're wrong and move on. And when you're right don't make someone else feel like shit even if you want to.

i feel the same way. i have a feeling in two years we might get big numbers and hear A LOT of 'see, Episode 8 isn't that disliked WOM was great'. and i still don't think it will be true. the brand is just that big, TFA was a universal crowdpleaser and it's orchestrater is returning. the only REAL complaint you tend to hear about TFA was the copying of plot devices. TLJ actually has large groups of people who just don't care for it. Big difference. Still, I think the conclusion effect and Abrams returns puts it at least the same ball park as TLJ.

this is my point exactly. TLJ is doing what TLJ is doing because it has mixed WOM. Jumanji is posting almost identical numbers to Sing last year. It didn't have the same affect on RO. I'm not saying competition doesn't matter, I'm saying TLJ underperformance isn't mainly based on Jumanji's overperformance it's based on mediocre reception and isolation of some of the most diehard fans. Correlation does not equal causation.

lol @ people now saying TLJ disappointing performance is to be blamed on Jumanji. 1. TLJ is going to make a ton of money for Disney. 2. It's performance post OW has been completely underwhelming and the Friday number is flat out disappointing (this is due to mixed WOM with the GA and fanboys alike) Both of those truths can coexist.

Not that everything has to be a competition, but for me Jumanji is the story of the winter. So so much more entertaining to follow than TLJ. That three day estimate if it holds is INSANE. This has a very real shot at 300 now, probably 80%. TLJ number is.....fine. Most people had it pegged for 80 million for the 4 day and if it comes in 8 under its just okay. Don't think there's really any more debate to be had that WOM is mixed-to decent among the GA. The numbers have reflected just that kind of run. Was looking at next Christmas slate and it's....interesting. Aquaman and Bumblebee will fight for the same audiences both coming off a franchise fatigue/poorly received predecessors. Do want to see what Wan does with Aquaman. Mortal Engines is a total toss up but I could definitely see it underperforming as much as over. Mary Poppins will probably save the day, especially if it's well received I think it makes a big play for 300-350.

Give Jack Black the Best Supporting Actor for his HARROWING portrayal of Bethany in Jumanji. Had me in tears. Also finalllllyyyyy saw Three Billboards today and I THINK it might be my favorite film of the year.

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this film is FANTASTIC. somehow even more charming than the first. really hope it can make a play for 100 domestic and if they DO a P3 I pray they're smart enough to release it in early December. These movies are begging to be released during the Holiday corridor.

For as terrible as the trailers have been, literally no star power attached to the soundtrack, and the fact that it's completely played out...I think that's actually really good for PP3. I know the second opened huge but this could have had through the roof reviews and would have never topped 40. The second was always going to be huge because the first found so, so much of its fanbase after the first film's theatrical run. It really does show that PP itself has a brand, but yeah they need to stop here (as I'm sure they will as I'm sure Kendrick at least feels above it by now).

I'm glad to see TLJ underperforming if nothing else for the sake of everyone in here to remember that historical trends are just that.....history. Seems like anytime someone who hasn't loved the film or has called into question it's legs someone is there to yell 'IT CAN'T DO LESS THAN A 3.5 MULTIPLIER, IT'S NEVER HAPPENED.' And though the Friday number may just be muted and it gets back on track it still at least ALLOWS for discussion that maybe this isn't connecting with a big number of people (as a few of us have tried to suggest) or maybe repeat viewings just aren't that high. MovieMan in particular has had some really good posts that have constantly been shut down based off the same old replies of 'it's star wars it won't happen'. It just very well may. A discussion is what this place should be, and with a property like SW I expect some people to get a little heated but lately I feel like a lot of people have forgotten that every once in a while a film comes along that doesn't follow the norms for good or for worse. And we need to allow for there to be space to discuss those without feeling like we're being called an idiot.