RyneOh1040
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Posts posted by RyneOh1040
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7 minutes ago, JB33 said:
Nobody is saying the total for TLJ is a disappointment, or the drop from TFA. Jesus Christ. It's the drops and jumps after a $220M OW. Don't act like this was going to be the case all along. The audience showed up in huge numbers on its opening weekend and the numbers since show that a lot of people weren't happy.
We can all meet in the middle of this discussion. The final numbers for this will be outstanding, obviously, but the legs will be disappointing given its opening weekend and the fact it occupied the plum holiday slot. Let's not just conveniently ignore all that.
god dammit, RETWEET.
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17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
I haven't posted my TLJ box office thoughts, Attack of the Clones and Empire both dropped about 33% (I did the exact math in another topic) from their predecessors, which is exactly where this is headed for. Most people here are predicting that Solo drops about 33% from Rogue One, too! That is the pattern with this series. Nothing about this is stunning at all. Pretty much everyone who sees TLJ saw The Force Awakens. But PLENTY of people who saw Force Awakens are not seeing the Last Jedi, because it doesn't have that curious rush factor. It is totally natural. Avengers1 and JW had once in a generation perfect storm of factors going for them, and they're STILL going to do less than TLJ, a middle movie in a saga. It's just projection of their own hate, half rooted in the movie not fulfilling their theories and half rooted in the SJW angle, that makes this run "disappointing" in some way. It's the most annoying and toxic box office discussion in years, and that's saying something. I've been disengaged from weekend threads because of it, despite a ton interesting going on.
it's all perspective. it depends on what we're discussing. the film is a massive hit that will make massive amounts of money.
the film also opened during the holiday season and will have a bad multiplier. yes, bad, given the PERSPECTIVE. when the film came out opening weekend, and CRUSHED it, EVERYONE in here threw out historical patterns when WOM was discussed. 'It can't get below a 3.5x! It's impossible it's the holidays! 800 is happening! A sure thing!'. But then dailys started coming in, it followed NONE of the patterns we've seen before (dropping on Friday and staying flat is straight up shocking) and the same people who cried history will prevail started saying 'well, actually, weve never had a 220 opener before that wasnt a cultural phenomenon this is doing what it should'.
It can't have bad WOM because Cinemascore and Comscore say so, and also Jumanji is now being deemed a cultural phenomenon (lol) because it's going to hit 300 (basically what Sing did to RO, which by the way held up fine) and the run time! the run time!
So yes, to some of us the run post OW is disappointing. The same way Ultron's was. Because we aren't moving the goal post every time a new variable might come into play.
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3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:
Prove it. Prove that the word of mouth is mixed. But don't use any reviews from Facebook, the Internet Movie Database, Twitter, or your friend's opinions, or anyone here at this site, or Instagram or rotten tomatoes or Google reviews or anything else that you can get access to online. Somehow those don't seem to matter to Empire. I'm not sure where he wants us to get this proof If he downplays all the ones that I just mentioned. That's what makes him a delusional person.
Yeah, I tried to talk to him about it and I appreciated his responses but to care so much about empirical data I feel like he's just looking at Cinemascore/Comscore and reading the room completely wrong. Can't see the forest-type thing.
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Yeah I think for me, at this point, I'm over defending or discussing the fact that because 'ComScore' (whatever the hell it is) and CinemaScore say so, WOM isn't mixed. The numbers have reflected that since OW and some of you have given credit to other variables (runtime, Jumanji overperfromance) while refusing to acknowledge it. It's bad analysis and if we can't agree on it it's not something worth discussing anymore.
As for Jumanji, I think one thing we often forget here in this bubble is the GA appeal of actors like The Rock and Kevin Hart. The film is a lot of fun and the perfect holiday option but it can't be understated that these are two of the biggest draws right now in a crowd-pleasing, PG13 film. Gotta give credit where credit is due and the two of them (between their social media antics) and understanding of their crowd base is getting people in seats.
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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:
We are discussing 2 different things here. I went off that morning and still do because this is a data based website combined with of course the gut feeling of gambling.
That morning multiple people kept posting over and over and over the percentage of the audience scores every 2 minutes and screaming and pointing as they were rock solid evidence. This was at the start of a weekend that opened to $220m. It blows my mind that people who are so interested in the data will do something like that.
There is still no actual evidence that I have seen to prove the terrible or even heavily mixed WOM for the movie. People are acting as if the percentages day to day are that evidence, but we are in an era where the data for December is still so young that it is incomplete. The calendar is weird and only happens about once every 12 years. It has a longer impactful running time. There is another monster break out crowd pleasing 30 minute shorter family film stealing away business. There is more traffic in the wide releases.
It's much too early for anyone to declare victory, but the data still almost completely points toward the opposite direction of what the screaming click bait narrative has been.
That is all I am saying with this and hope this helps people understand where exactly I am coming from.
good post. and you're right, the evidence isn't there yet. i think the issue i'm and some others are having is that we have been hearing all of these other reasons why the numbers are lower (i.e. Jumanji, run time, etc) but when reception is discussed it's dismissed because the polls show it's not true. and it's one of those things where for you it is seemingly obvious that that's NOT a contributing factor for others of us it seems like the MAIN contributing factor based on our social experiences (which our anecdotal but nonetheless our experiences).
and just because I'm not sure, what metrics do you rely on for gauging audience reception. Not RT or Cinemascore, but what else is out there to show national polling on this?
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3 minutes ago, JB33 said:
I absolutely agree. I genuinely respect @EmpireCity and appreciate his and @The Greatest Rth contributions to this forum. I'm just frustrated by the moving goalposts over the last several days and the lack of respect for those who had a point in the opening week. We caught a ton of flak and now are only catching more because we're not simply appreciating a juggernaut movie.
I've said it before: this is a box office forum with some of the smartest box office people around. I don't see why we can't critique and look deeper, instead of just saying "Heyyy this movie is making more than $600M! What a success!". That may be 100% true, but come on now, some of us want to analyze and critique the patterns underneath the surface of the raw numbers. That's what this forum is for. But because people don't like the negative vibe of that, suddenly none of that matters. We're better than that, d i certainly hold folks like EmpireCity to that standard.
fair.
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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:
It is because we are talking about measurable and reliable data, not feeling and gut reaction. You are pointing out anecdotal evidence, which is the absolute weakest and most unreliable form of "evidence" there is. For example, you can't say something might be mixed because your sister's best friends cousin has a boyfriend that didn't like it and neither did his friends. That isn't evidence.
Run time is absolutely an issue and if you don't believe me go talk to anyone that schedules showtimes at a theater. It is one of the reasons that theaters jizzed in their pants when they heard that Dunkirk was only 1 hour 40 minutes instead of the standard 2 hours 30 minutes. See my post above for an example of how it has an effect on scheduling.
This is also a crowded season. @TwoMisfits did get part of her post right last week when she pointed out that the extra screen shows had started to go to Jumanji. There is more traffic as far as movies required to be played goes this year compared to the last two years. Combine that with the longer running time and break out of Jumanji taking away family business and it adds up to less opportunity than the previous two years.
Yes it's anecdotal, for sure. But we've seen that anecdotal evidence repeated far and wide. Even something as simple as Twitter opening night was just a blood bath for the most part. I know you're a man of empirical evidence and I really respect that. But I just don't know how you can see the numbers the past few days and ignore the fact that WOM might not be what you think. Or at least allow it to be a part of the discussion.
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1 minute ago, boomboom234 said:
The box office is great in a vacuum, but it's holds have not been and it might not pass JW or even win the year WW, whatever the polls there was clearly at least some form of a backlash. I hope we can agree that general audience reaction has not been as great as those polls nor as poor as RT audience poll, a middle ground
hear, hear!
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5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
Correct, I was arguing correctly that the audience ranking data was being manipulated and is highly anecdotal while the actual data showed the opposite.
WOM is still fantastic for The Last Jedi by every actual scientific polling method. Even the box office is still great. There is still no actual data other than people pointing and screaming LOOK OVER THERE!! that the WOM is poor.
yeah this makes no sense to me. i honestly had never even heard of ComScore and i'd love to know more but I'm confused why multiple users here who have posted for years are just being dismissed when they say WOM is mixed, when that's their experience. i mean, what would it take to make you think WOM isn't fantastic?
run time shouldn't be the issue it's being made out to be, and Jumanji and this should easily be able to coexist.
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6 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:
Thanks for just proving my fucking point, that it's a scientific poll with a pretty high accuracy rate.
5 cities to represent the entire US is fair sample size?
cool, cool. also maybe try to play it a little cooler when responding to people???
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14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
These posts are all inaccurate and falsely categorize what I posted. Not surprising given most aren't able to discuss outside of 140 characters at this point in time.
Again, we have people on here saying that Episode 9 will make less than $450m, The Last Jedi is somehow a disappointment overall, Star Wars might be dead, etc...
I'll gladly let the people decide which is more accurate when it comes to what people post or discuss. Nobody is ever 100% accurate with box office and if you were then you are a dumbfuck if you aren't a billionaire. It is like a more accurate version of sports gambling, but still a crapshoot.
With all that, again, the posts above are categorically false and intentionally misrepresent what was being discussed that morning. Not surprising.
i feel like the hyperbole is running in both directions here, though. i think literally one poster has said that it would make less than 500 and I'm pretty certain they're a newbie. so, it's an extremist point of view. And I think when we discuss disappointments don't we have to always speak in perspective?
Is a film that's going to clear 650 US and probably 1.5 billion WW a disappointment? HELL NO. But the numbers have been underwhelming since OW when it clearly burned off a lot of demand, and has since abandoned a lot of historical patterns. I think you could certainly say the run has been boring since then and the multiplier is certainly teetering on the edge of meh to disappointing. So there are aspects of its run that ARE empirically a bit disappointing.
Still, I understand the essence of what you're saying and I agree. But I do think distinction is important here.
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2 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:
It's five random theaters on opening night that's not a poll
ah yes, facts.
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1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:
That is just bullshit, RT is way less scientific.
lol, i never said anything about RT, fam. but the sample sizes for cinemascore are INSANELY low.
Thirty-five to 45 teams of CinemaScore representatives are present in 25 large cities across North America. Each Friday, representatives in five randomly chosen cities give opening-day audiences a small survey card.[6][7][8] The card asks for age, gender, a grade for the film between A+ and F, whether they would rent or buy the film on DVD or Blu-ray, and why they chose the film.[7] CinemaScore typically receives about 400 cards per film;[9]the company estimates a 65% response rate and 6% margin of error.[8] The ratings are divided by gender and age groups (under 21, 21–34, 35 and up).[4] Film studios and other subscribers receive the data at about 11 p.m. Pacific Time. CinemaScore publishes letter grades to the public on social media and, although the detailed data is proprietary, the grades quickly spread widely throughout the media and the industry, as studio executives brag about successes and mock competitors' failures. Subsequent advertisements for highly ranked films often cite their CinemaScore grades.[7][9][8]
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2 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:
the scientific polling says audiences love it, I'm going with the more accurate polling.
if you mean Cinemascore it is literally about as unscientific as it gets.
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I really appreciate people like Empire giving us early numbers and taking the time to essentially give us raw data. And I don't think attacking him (even when he's wrong) is the way to go about this.
I ALSO don't think when users (especially regulars) in this forum post an unpopular opinion that they should be shit on. By anyone. From anywhere.
Disagreeing is one thing, but the week TLJ came out I, along with MovieMan and a handful of others posted that what WE were seeing in our small sample sizes of friends, colleagues and theaters was a lot of mixed opinions. And how that might affect the box office. Some of us were effectively called idiots for daring to think it might not have the legs it historically should have. And for me, it crossed a line. I followed the forums at Mojo religiously since I was 14 (I'm 29 now) and that was the most bummed and insulted I had ever been here. That kind of stuff goes nowhere and just makes this place something it doesn't need to be.
When you're wrong, just say you're wrong and move on. And when you're right don't make someone else feel like shit even if you want to.
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Just now, MovieMan89 said:
I don't think an increase is out of the question for it either though. It will depend on marketing and if it can really please the fanbase at large like TFA did after TLJ.
i feel the same way. i have a feeling in two years we might get big numbers and hear A LOT of 'see, Episode 8 isn't that disliked WOM was great'. and i still don't think it will be true. the brand is just that big, TFA was a universal crowdpleaser and it's orchestrater is returning. the only REAL complaint you tend to hear about TFA was the copying of plot devices. TLJ actually has large groups of people who just don't care for it. Big difference.
Still, I think the conclusion effect and Abrams returns puts it at least the same ball park as TLJ.
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4 minutes ago, JB33 said:
They go hand in hand. If word of mouth on TLJ was better, than Jumanji wouldn't be taking business away. Just today we had some friends invite me and another friend to go out to see Jumanji. They haven't even seen the new Star Wars yet, and 99.999% that would be the go to movie. Not in this case.
this is my point exactly. TLJ is doing what TLJ is doing because it has mixed WOM. Jumanji is posting almost identical numbers to Sing last year. It didn't have the same affect on RO. I'm not saying competition doesn't matter, I'm saying TLJ underperformance isn't mainly based on Jumanji's overperformance it's based on mediocre reception and isolation of some of the most diehard fans. Correlation does not equal causation.
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lol @ people now saying TLJ disappointing performance is to be blamed on Jumanji.
1. TLJ is going to make a ton of money for Disney.
2. It's performance post OW has been completely underwhelming and the Friday number is flat out disappointing (this is due to mixed WOM with the GA and fanboys alike)
Both of those truths can coexist.
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Not that everything has to be a competition, but for me Jumanji is the story of the winter. So so much more entertaining to follow than TLJ.
That three day estimate if it holds is INSANE. This has a very real shot at 300 now, probably 80%.
TLJ number is.....fine. Most people had it pegged for 80 million for the 4 day and if it comes in 8 under its just okay. Don't think there's really any more debate to be had that WOM is mixed-to decent among the GA. The numbers have reflected just that kind of run.
Was looking at next Christmas slate and it's....interesting. Aquaman and Bumblebee will fight for the same audiences both coming off a franchise fatigue/poorly received predecessors. Do want to see what Wan does with Aquaman. Mortal Engines is a total toss up but I could definitely see it underperforming as much as over. Mary Poppins will probably save the day, especially if it's well received I think it makes a big play for 300-350.
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Give Jack Black the Best Supporting Actor for his HARROWING portrayal of Bethany in Jumanji. Had me in tears.
Also finalllllyyyyy saw Three Billboards today and I THINK it might be my favorite film of the year.
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10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
The TFA hater: now that's the epitome of a very small minority. At worst some complain about the similarity to ANH. Never really had any experience with someone who outright hates it in the way I've already seen the TLJ hate by many.
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this film is FANTASTIC. somehow even more charming than the first. really hope it can make a play for 100 domestic and if they DO a P3 I pray they're smart enough to release it in early December. These movies are begging to be released during the Holiday corridor.
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For as terrible as the trailers have been, literally no star power attached to the soundtrack, and the fact that it's completely played out...I think that's actually really good for PP3. I know the second opened huge but this could have had through the roof reviews and would have never topped 40. The second was always going to be huge because the first found so, so much of its fanbase after the first film's theatrical run.
It really does show that PP itself has a brand, but yeah they need to stop here (as I'm sure they will as I'm sure Kendrick at least feels above it by now).
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I'm glad to see TLJ underperforming if nothing else for the sake of everyone in here to remember that historical trends are just that.....history. Seems like anytime someone who hasn't loved the film or has called into question it's legs someone is there to yell 'IT CAN'T DO LESS THAN A 3.5 MULTIPLIER, IT'S NEVER HAPPENED.' And though the Friday number may just be muted and it gets back on track it still at least ALLOWS for discussion that maybe this isn't connecting with a big number of people (as a few of us have tried to suggest) or maybe repeat viewings just aren't that high.
MovieMan in particular has had some really good posts that have constantly been shut down based off the same old replies of 'it's star wars it won't happen'. It just very well may. A discussion is what this place should be, and with a property like SW I expect some people to get a little heated but lately I feel like a lot of people have forgotten that every once in a while a film comes along that doesn't follow the norms for good or for worse. And we need to allow for there to be space to discuss those without feeling like we're being called an idiot.
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New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
i also think it's actually continuing and expanding that dominance into this decade...
i have SO many friends who found the series in their early to mid 20's and honestly love it as much i have since i was 11. it also seems to have a more even split between the male and female fans, which is another really unique property to the series.