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IndustriousAngel

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  1. I think it's doing fine, the possible 2,5mil total is a lot more than I thought it could make. The book is not that well-known in German-speaking countries.
  2. Germany's Top18 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Migration 295.793 661 447 661.572 6.176.988 +102 2 2 Wonka 286.438 749 382 1.457.028 13.669.436 +36 4 3 Aquaman 2 259.271 615 422 647.772 7.641.050 +49 2 4 Wish 197.127 639 308 1.295.009 11.104.016 +67 5 5 Hunger Games Prequel 83.227 430 194 1.411.640 15.751.904 +80 7 6 Girl You Know It's True 77.561 522 149 172.927 1.797.546 +141 2 7 Napoleon 73.664 547 135 977.682 11.107.862 +79 6 8 Perfect Days 41.069 117 351 95.227 914.200 +107 2 9 Saw 10 31.627 323 98 371.706 3.884.733 +32 5 10 791km 26.880 351 77 102.373 967.602 +145 3 11 Complètement cramé 17.576 147 120 39.803 360.317 +132 2 12 Wow! Nachricht aus dem All 14.304 445 32 51.774 398.517 +79 3 13 Vem är du, Mamma Mu? 13.715 388 35 15.837 113.594 - 1 14 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 13.554 190 71 390.932 2.741.376 +55 10 15 Joan Baez I Am A Noise 13.088 80 164 13.501 124.211 - 1 16 Checker Tobi 2 13.051 241 54 1.062.381 7.852.863 +101 13 17 The Haunting of the Queen Mary 12.163 179 68 15.755 154.974 - 1 18 Anatomie d'une chute 11.898 137 87 227.895 2.324.598 +151 9 An ok weekend with good increases, the gamut of attractive releases makes up for the fact that there's still no blockbuster in sight. (Wonka might come close to 2,5mil total; however I find it strange that it had one of the lowest increases). Aquaman 2 is recovering from the soft opening; 1mil+ will happen and something like 1,3mil total seem like the goal now. The same goes for Migration which should have another strong week and might come close to 2mil in the end, as should Wish. Farther down the chart, Wim Wenders' Perfect Days had a nice PTA; with good WOM and reviews this might become a leggy run. In Austria, similar results (with less stellar increases thanks to the 3-day vs. 4-day counting, however, Austria's Thursdays get counted in the end, too) Next weekend: Two semiwide openers, both interesting: Waititi's Next Goal Wins and Miyazakis The Boy and The Heron. Top3 will be impossible for both but they seem like possible crowdpleasers which could see a long run. Also opening: The 2nd part of Atatürk 1881-1919; this should have a very strong PTA again. And a bit of a look back on 2023: There were some silver lines on the dark horizon - Barbenheimer seemed to put movie-going back on the chart; domestic crime comedy Rehragout-Rendezvous cleared 1,5mil total in Germany and 300k in Austria, the strongest of the series (no small feat for the 9th installment); but overall, it has been a piss-poor year for Germany's movie theaters, and Austria - while consistently performing stronger - was not much better. While a bit of the decline might be thanks to the writer's strike, there's no doubt that even without the strike, this would have been the worst year in this millenium, Covid-years excluded. Of course, the general state of the economy had an influence; when inflation rates hit households, entertainment is going to suffer, especially if it's expensive entertainment. In this regard, there's still distributors who force theaters into 3D, something I continue to not understand … Here's hoping for an uptick in 2024! Happy New Year everyone!
  3. updated estimates; everything higher, Wonka now at 300k which would put it back on its track for 2,5mil total: #1: Migration - 310k (+112%) #2: Wonka - 300k (+42%) #3: Aquaman2 - 250k (+44%) #4: Wish - 210k (+78%)
  4. Early weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany's New Year's weekend: #1: Migration - 285k admissions (+95%) #2: Wonka - 275k (+30%) #3: Aquaman 2 - 240k (+38%) #4: Wish - 190k (+61%) #5: HG Prequel - 75k (+62%, unexpected increase) Wonka with the smallest increase, maybe it's already exhausted its potential in the prior weeks - so, no 2,5mil for sure.
  5. Germany's Top12 xmas weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Wonka 210.968 749 282 958.673 8.991.608 -14 3 2 Aquaman 2 173.570 587 296 196.650 2.339.911 - 1 3 Migration 146.287 635 230 197.387 1.818.871 - 1 4 Wish 117.874 643 183 982.551 8.434.707 -29 4 5 Hunger Games Prequel 46.166 434 106 1.274.088 14.205.644 -43 6 6 Napoleon 41.201 566 73 851.408 9.677.557 -48 5 7 Girl You Know It's True 32.185 478 67 48.347 477.501 - 1 8 Saw 10 23.884 340 70 314.540 3.276.650 -52 4 9 Perfect Days 19.859 111 179 19.859 190.611 - 1 10 Dunki 17.528 87 201 17.528 275.764 - 1 11 791km 10.990 340 32 58.238 533.404 -57 2 12 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 8.770 219 40 368.976 2.564.163 -16 9 Not a good weekend - with 24th on a Sunday, that was a given, but we're missing something with blockbuster potential. Wonka continues with the good holds, should top 2mil total. Aquaman 2 dropped a lot from the first one but is not flopping as hard as Marvels; in fact it might go up next weekend. Migration stayed below my expectations, but family releases should have very strong weekdays and following weekends - no flop, either. In Austria, Wonka led the field with >30k admissions; Migration and Wish came in on #2 and 3, and Aquaman 2 was only #4 despite opening a little better than in Germany - so, we did have a much stronger weekend! Next weekend: No wide openers, holdovers should see minimal drops or hopefully increases - in the case of family releases, even doubling last weekend's numbers is possible!
  6. yep, 2,5mil seem very hard to reach but I wouldn't count it out yet - it's been having fine holds since the opening, so WOM seems ok. This week we'll see strong weekdays and hopefully a nice increase over the weekend, should come in with at least 300k, and holidays will continue until the weekend after where it should make at least 200k again. Don't underestimate those holiday legs!
  7. Thanks to the holiday alignment, actuals will be coming very late, but it seems the latest estimates were pretty accurate - 3 movies in the 200k range is not too bad, next weekend should see spectacular increases, with some releases maybe even doubling this weekend's numbers (that happened back in 2017 when we hat 24th on a Sun, too). Austria seems to have had a much better weekend - Aquaman on the same level as Germany but the three wide family releases all doing better - maybe thanks to rainy weather in most regions. Wonka was nearly on the level of its OW; next weekend might count >40k admissions with a chance at 50k.
  8. early weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany: #1: Wonka - 225k admissions (-9%, that would be excellent given the date alignment) #2: Aquaman2 - 185k #3: Migration - 195k incl previews #4: Wish - 125k (-25%) All other releases <50k So, if true, Wonka keeps on with the good holds, Wish is dropping steeper than expected, Migration is doing so-so (obviously hurting Wish more than Wonka) and Aquaman2 is having a big decline from the first one - not as bad as Marvels but it will be hard to reach 1mil total; the first one counted exatly 2mil back in 2018. Of course, with 24th on Sunday, the follwing weekdays and weeks will be more important than this weekend.
  9. Germany's Top13 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Wonka 246.213 719 342 647.593 6.249.334 -16 2 2 Wish 165.787 656 253 811.271 7.047.195 -22 3 3 Hunger Games Prequel 81.435 550 148 1.192.870 13.351.463 -25 5 4 Napoleon 78.937 691 114 768.265 8.824.295 -30 4 5 Saw 10 50.154 442 113 275.643 2.877.427 -28 3 6 791km 25.706 325 79 35.830 323.798 - 1 7 Wow! Nachricht aus dem All 15.024 456 33 17.095 133.969 - 1 8 Anatomie d'une Chute 13.201 170 78 197.554 2.011.038 +90 7 9 Silent Night 12.573 221 57 18.451 166.771 - 1 10 Das Beste kommt noch! 11.104 346 32 44.600 433.474 -47 2 11 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 10.489 253 41 356.410 2.486.019 -26 8 12 Godzilla Minus One 10.350 196 53 46.913 489.329 -3 3 13 Checker Tobi 2 10.346 425 24 1.030.671 7.632.264 -34 11 Wow, baaad weekend … some decent holds but everything on a very low level, not a single standout release. The best news is that Wonka is working better than I thought it would, should reach 2mil total with the holidays. In Austria, not much better - 10-20% percent up as usual plus one domestic release doing ok, but still bad. Next weekend: Finally some bigger openers: Migration as the family release, Aquaman 2 for the comic book crowd and Milli Vanilli biopic Girl You Know It's True - no blockbuster but at least three attractive releases which should work throughout the holidays.
  10. That was a comparatively nice trend, look at the actuals, THOSE are painful to watch
  11. Early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de: #1: Wonka - 275k admissions (-6%) #2: Wish - 185k (-13%) #3: Napoleon - 85k (-24%) Contrary to my expectations, Wonka is holding better than Wish; good for both movies, but without big openers, once more a depressed weekend ...
  12. Germany's Top12 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Wonka 292.363 668 438 328.295 3.199.393 - 1 2 Wish 212.096 648 327 602.801 5.284.902 +3 2 3 Napoleon 112.274 694 162 649.391 7.497.216 -22 3 4 Hunger Games Prequel 109.032 578 189 1.075.961 12.072.974 -20 4 5 Saw 10 69.579 409 170 208.473 2.184.167 -26 2 6 Das Beste kommt noch! 21.095 342 62 25.514 249.783 - 1 7 Checker Tobi 2 15.626 495 32 1.017.426 7.542.809 -2 10 8 Morgen, Findus, wird's was geben 15.314 79 194 65.755 254.436 + 837 - Andre Rieu's White Christmas 15.151 283 54 15.151 268.947 - 1 9 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 14.146 331 43 344.374 2.440.426 +37 7 10 Trolls 3 11.953 415 29 741.361 6.337.442 -15 8 11 The Marvels 11.303 238 47 434.144 4.764.646 -47 5 12 Godzilla Minus One 10.724 191 56 32.785 343.031 -39 2 A so-so weekend thanks to the good opening for Wonka; Wish increased from last WE, also a good sign - should play well through the holidays. But only 12 releases >10k admissions, that's awful and indicative of the poor state of Germany's BO. The Marvels will probably drop out of my chart next WE, with a total of >500k - crazy how fast the MCU is fading. In Austria, less awful numbers - a similar chart but everything 15-30% higher, plus last week's domestic opener Wie kommen wir da wieder raus managed an increase - nice! Next weekend: The biggest opener should be Silent Night; also two semi-wide domestic openings, kiddie SciFi Wow! Nachricht aus dem All and comedy 791km. So, no hits - Wonka should stay in front, but depending on WOM the race for #1 might be closer than last weekend.
  13. This will be the worst post-2000 year yet (except Covid lockdown years), there's no denying that fact. Even if Dune2 would have opened in its intended slot, that would make little difference in the end ...
  14. depending on wom, it might play very well through xmas holidays, so there's potential for more. 2mil seem out of reach but 1,5 should be doable
  15. The PTA number is just the number of admissions divided by the number of theaters it's playing in and as such is a very unspecific number; sadly we don't get per-screen or even per-show numbers. But when you take in the genre / format, it can be interpreted in a sensible way. As an example, last week's Wish had a PTA of 320 - but as a family release it was playing during the day and even a lot of shows in the evening, often on more than one screen. So this PTA is actually pretty poor for an OW (ok, a lot of pressure has been taken out by already wide previews the WE before). Otoh, Renaissance had a PTA of "only" 166 but it was only playing in the evening and mostly on smaller screens; in some theaters only one show / day. So those 166 are a good number, and the per-show-admissions must have been a lot higher than Wish's.
  16. Germany's Top14 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Wish 206.199 644 320 339.864 3.019.574 - 1 2 Napoleon 144.646 650 223 490.920 5.700.746 -47 2 3 Hunger Games Prequel 137.059 670 205 922.187 10.411.933 -40 3 4 Saw 10 93.560 389 241 116.230 1.222.744 - 1 5 The Marvels 21.148 379 56 417.599 4.602.308 -57 4 6 Godzilla Minus One 17.473 228 77 17.473 187.623 - 1 7 Checker Tobi 2 15.978 580 28 999.806 7.417.939 -52 9 8 Renaissance 15.584 94 166 15.584 297.978 - 1 9 Trolls 3 14.085 501 28 727.216 6.224.861 -57 7 10 Sur les chemins noirs 11.241 129 87 19.251 173.620 - 1 11 Ein ganzes Leben 11.233 299 38 158.860 1.480.374 -51 4 12 Thanksgiving 11.156 315 35 99.567 1.011.289 -61 3 13 Die unlangweiligste Schule der Welt 10.750 436 25 281.250 2.108.964 -49 6 14 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 10.284 407 25 326.366 2.279.891 -64 6 Usually, it's fine weather that has a negative impact on Germany's BO but this time, heavy snowfalls in the south led to a poorer-than-expected weekend. Wish opened softer than expected after the strong previews, but Saw 10 had a good OW and Renaissance also a good PTA. In Austria, similar numbers but everything a bit higher, we had 4 releases in the 5-digit range for the 3-day-WE, plus a domestic dramedy on #5. Next weekend: Wonka will probably be the biggest opener; the book is not that well-known in Germany but the 2005 Burton movie topped >1mil admissions so I'd say it has a decent chance to become #1 over the weekend. Also opening: Domestic dramedy Das Beste kommt noch (remake of a french one) which will probably not make a big splash.
  17. as far as I've seen it's a pretty limited release in Germany, so no big numbers but we should get some. I don't know if it's already playing in Austria, at least in my city it has no screens.
  18. update: lower estimates for everything, heavy snowfalls seem to put a brake on the BO this weekend
  19. First weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de: #1: Wish - 360k (that's lower than I expected, last week's previews must have taken a lot of pressure out) #2/3: Napoleon, HungerGamesPrequel - 175k each #4: Saw 10 - 140k (very good) so, on the positive side, 4 releases in the 6-digits-range. Otherwise it's looking sad, #5 atm would be Marvels with <30k admissions, that's awful.
  20. Germany's Top17 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Napoleon 272.701 624 437 274.101 3.212.435 - 1 2 The Hunger Games Prequel 229.639 668 344 728.551 8.255.412 -36 2 - Wish (Previews) 133.600 582 230 133.600 1.151.803 - 0 3 The Marvels 49.704 556 89 386.478 4.299.174 -46 3 4 Checker Tobi 2 33.608 656 51 978.532 7.269.993 -40 8 5 Trolls 3 32.669 559 58 707.947 6.069.465 -46 6 6 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 28.670 491 58 312.682 2.186.839 -40 5 7 Thanksgiving 28.271 317 89 82.932 844.488 -36 2 8 Ein ganzes Leben 23.045 266 87 137.630 1.287.807 -38 3 9 Die unlangweiligste Schule der Welt 21.163 481 44 267.587 2.013.401 -41 5 10 Paw Patrol 2 20.343 471 43 1.332.486 10.276.275 -42 9 11 Killers of the Flower Moon 15.286 327 47 586.498 7.005.352 -58 6 12 Wochenendrebellen 15.052 424 36 901.625 8.191.882 -43 9 13 Anatomie d'une chute 14.360 150 96 152.085 1.556.727 -42 4 14 Das fliegende Klassenzimmer 11.435 399 29 383.603 2.904.162 -40 7 15 Five Nights at Freddy's 11.275 312 36 577.910 5.820.309 -59 5 16 Atatürk 1881-1919 10.452 110 95 86.475 895.065 -52 3 17 The Old Oak 10.247 100 102 12.234 107.570 - 1 Another so-so weekend … Napoleon opened within expectations, Hunger Games had an ok hold and - nice surprise - Wish had wide previews and would have come in #3 for the weekend (it's unusual that preview numbers get published, no idea why they changed that policy). Otoh, all holdovers had pretty steep drops (from already low levels), so overall, the weekend was still somewhat disappointing. In Austria, similar results (once more, Pumuckl much stronger, might get to 100k total), plus strong results for the Lord of the Rings triple-features which sold about 3.500 tickets (=10.500 admissions). At the theaters where it played, it was easily the biggest seller this WE (at mine, it occupied the whole Saturday on 3 of the 9 screens, among them the biggest, which were about 80% full) Next weekend: After this weeks super previews, there's no doubt Wish will have a strong real opening - anything below 400k would disappoint me. Also opening: SawX, with little competition in its demo, it might come near a 6-digit OW, too. So, overall a much better weekend!
  21. would probably have been #3 this weekend, maybe even approaching 6-digits which would be an outstanding number. cinemas are in dire need of a hit ...
  22. early weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany: #1: Napoleon - 300k (good) #2: HungerPrequel - 250k (fine hold) #3: Marvels - 50k not a good weekend once more ...
  23. Doesn't look like it ... as I mentioned, presales are good but the number of shows is low which is limiting the OW numbers ... if the movie is really good, WOM should carry it into the christmas holidays when the long running time is less of an issue. And it's possible that it gets school shows which will of course push midweek admissions.
  24. Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 The Hunger Games Prequel 360.772 675 534 401.964 4.637.076 - 1 2 The Marvels 92.080 562 164 317.610 3.593.382 -46 2 3 Trolls 3 60.341 583 104 665.234 5.725.102 -6 5 4 Checker Tobi 2 55.754 699 80 933.472 6.945.685 -10 7 5 Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl 47.563 532 89 275.420 1.923.161 -5 4 6 Thanksgiving 44.294 298 149 44.381 459.757 - 1 7 Ein ganzes Leben 37.066 216 172 98.513 926.629 -1 2 8 Killers of the Flower Moon 36.211 427 85 558.562 6.682.449 -34 5 9 Die unlangweiligste Schule der Welt 35.752 496 72 239.783 1.807.859 +5 4 10 Paw Patrol 2 35.289 502 70 1.307.672 10.085.728 -12 8 11 Five Nights at Freddy's 27.178 437 62 560.814 5.647.805 -51 4 12 Wochenendrebellen 26.535 518 51 877.396 7.984.461 -28 8 13 Anatomie d'une Chute 24.581 150 164 126.608 1.296.944 -24 3 14 Atatürk 1881-1919 21.813 112 195 71.464 743.877 -47 2 15 One for the Road 20.506 398 52 220.752 2.085.836 -36 4 16 Ein Fest fürs Leben 20.491 429 48 335.576 3.234.589 -34 5 17 Das fliegende Klassenzimmer 18.989 450 42 367.230 2.679.919 -13 6 18 Die Biene Maja - Die Honigspiele 15.336 44 349 345.255 2.218.056 + 299 19 The Quiet Girl 15.101 102 148 20.920 164.028 - 1 20 Sound of Freedom 12.966 163 80 41.740 421.629 -33 2 A better weekend thanks to the good opening of Hunger Games (even a bit higher than I expected) but overall still weak, with Marvels imploding after the already low OW. Family releases with good holds but from a low level. In Austria, similar numbers, still with Pumuckl doing much better than in its home market (#2 by admissions in Austria). Next weekend: One big opener, Ridely Scott's Napoleon. While I don't believe it will become a big hit, presales look ok and it might beat Hunger Games' 2nd weekend for #1. If it's spectacular enough, one million total should be possible (hey, a pretty dry Oppenheimer biopic just counted >4mil admissions this year, so Napoleon should be a blockbuster, but that's not how the BO works …)
  25. early weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1: HungerGamesPrequel - 400k (better than expected) #2: Marvels - 85k (-50%, ouch) #3: Trolls 3 - 60k (-7%) At least one good opening, and family releases with good holds ... still not a good weekend.
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