The Panda

I was giving it Catching Fire's drop, a 40.8m saturday is technically possible for Mockingjay because it's been done in the franchise before but really I see something more like Fri: 55m Sat: 37.4m Sun: 24.3m Wknd: 116.7m A slightly lower multiplier of 2.54x due to lackluster WoM DOM: 296.42m

Shame, Inception is definitely NOT the best sci-fi movie, even from the last 4 years. Hell, its not even Nolan's best Sci-Fi movie (Or second best if you count the Prestige).

So, if Mockingjay follows Catching Fire exactly Fri: 55m Sat: 40.8m Sun: 26.8m Wknd: 122.6m DOM: 326.1m It's going to have to either have a much stronger weekend multiplier or stronger legs than Catching Fire if it wants to be the #1 domestic movie of the year.

You could easily interchange Catching Fire's WoM with not having to deal with Frozen weekend 1, however that's just for that weekend. We've already seen this year that no competition doesn't necessarily lead to strong legs and strong competition doesn't necessarily lead to poor legs. Sure, they have an effect, but they aren't as determinate as the movie actually clicking with the audience.

A's Birdman: Or The Unexpected Nature of Ignorance Boyhood Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fury Gone Girl The Grand Budapest Hotel The Guardians of the Galaxy Interstellar The LEGO Movie Snowpiercer X-Men: Days of Future Past B's 22 Jump Street Bad Words Bears Begin Again Captain America: The Winter Soldier Chef Edge of Tomorrow The Fault in Our Stars The Giver Godzilla How to Train Your Dragon 2 Neighbors Next Goal Wins Noah Only Lovers Left Alive St Vincent C's About Last Night That Awkward Moment Blended Divergent Dracula Untold God's Not Dead Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Life Itself The Monument's Men A Most Wanted Man Muppets: Most Wanted Oculus Veronica Mars D's 300: Rise of An Empire Alexander and the No Good, Terrible, Very Bad Day The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Annabelle Jersey Boys Maleficent A Million Ways to Die in the West Need For Speed Non-Stop Ride Along RoboCop Transcendence F's Deliver Us From Evil Endless Love I, Frankenstein The Nut Job Ouija Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones Pompeii Trans4mers: Age of Extinction Winter's Tale Z's America: Imagine a World Without Her

Smash Bros Wii U is what caused Mockingjay to flop

Indiana Jones and the Search For Gandalf's Mystic Pipe

I guess bears don't shit in the woods anymore Kelli?

Send some lists through pm as well

1.Jurassic World 2.Inherent Vice 3.Tomorrowland 4.Exodus: Gods and Kings 5.Unbroken 6.Crimson Peak 7.The Heart of the Sea 8.Pitch Perfect 2 9.The Interview 10.Into the Woods

I just made one

Nobody saw 120m - 130m coming, even doubters like me.

By the way, come join the Guardians of the Galaxy #1 movie of the year club.

I just knew interstellar would outgross Mockingjay part 1 when I saw that second trailer. Look at where that got me.

You're using anecdotal evidence to help cope with the fact that the numbers at current aren't looking bright.

Absolute floor is around 105m, absolute top (this would imply better than catching fire weekend holds) 145m. Id say around 125-130m based on early numbers.

Oh I know it won't have twilight legs, just brought up the comparison for fun. Personally a 125m weekend and around a 320m - 340m domestic finish looks plausible (early signs). Very profitable and still a big success, but very disappointing given its bound to have a nearly 100m drop from catching fire (even with a near identical multiplier)

Food for thought: If Mockingjay Part 1's Friday is RTH's minimum and it follows Deathly Hallows part 1 from here on out it would end up at 262.58m Dom total If it's Friday is RTH's minimum and it follows Breaking Dawn part 1 from there forward it'll end up with 206.6m I don't think it will because I still think it'll have better legs than those too, but those are some incredibly low possibilities.

Not only were there only 2 1 minute long trailers but they took a long time to get TV spots started (as well as releasing those trailers). There was some genuine excitement in all demos about catching fire because the marketing was impeccable. Mockingjay goes to show just because you're an easy sell franchise doesn't mean you can't market your movie. There is no reason for Mockingjay to open below 140m (I would have had said 150m but no IMAX) except bad to non-existent marketing.

Holy crap they're adapting the Stand? I'm intrigued.

I'll be honest I'm shocked about these numbers and I was one of the doubters who thought Mockingjay might possibly have the lowest OW of the franchise (but not by more than a couple million). You can't just blame no IMAX though, obviously the marketing just didn't get the casual base excited like the last two times. I mean this will still make an easy profit, but even it being a part 1 this is looking like a really big drop off. The only thing that can be pointed to is Lionsgate dropped the ball on marketing big time.

I find it funny everyone expected this holiday season to be massive and look what happened. Everything's underperformed with an exception of DADT.

Actually, if this follows deathly Hallows part 1 for its weekend multiplier and then has catching fires legs it would miss 300m We actually can't call 300m a complete lock until we see the opening shockingly.

Based on RTH's numbers I can see Maximum (better than catching fire drops) Fri: 57m Sat: 45 Sunday: 40.5m Wknd: 142.5m Minimum (53.5 with deathly Hallows part 1 drops) Fri: 53.5m Sat: 33.3m Sun: 22.6m Wknd: 109.4m My guess Fri: 56m Sat: 40.9m Sun: 26.6m Wknd: 123.5m Give those a 2.7x that CF had (best possible legs) and it would look at Best OW: 384.75m Worst OW: 295.38m My Guess: 333.45m However I'm not sure if I see those legs So id actually guess 308.75m for Floppingjay

The funniest straight comedy of the year, really disappointed I missed it in theaters. In my opinion it took the first and improved upon it, while there are some moments that drag in the laughter department it makes up for it by keeping you interested. It can also feel a bit repetitious at times, but there are still great laughs throughout. Either a B+ or A-, I haven't cemented what I want to grade it yet