If it gets a BD nod it's locked for a BP nod.
Honestly, I'm not to positive on anything just yet. For example, the Butler was completely shut out last year after a lot of predicted noms, and even Inside Llewyn Davis managed to miss heavily.
We have an academy that is starting to be more accepting toward artistic blockbusters. We won't see a franchise nominated anytime soon but don't discount Interstellar.
It'll also join
Life of Pi
The Wolf of Wall Street
Pacific Rim
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Edge of Tomorrow
Noah
Skyfall
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
Avatar
Casino Royale
Wallace and Grommit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit
The Pianist
Titanic
Most of that is very simplified and basic statistics.
It's kind of interesting but I guess it might be more to say somebody who doesn't follow the box office
I do think they just need to either make a decent movie or get strong stars in roles for them. There is certainly interest just not anymore in bad ones