Gokai Red

It's crazy that you guys mention the Catching Fire opening weekend because that was my first big weekend on this forum. I remember I found the forum a month or two before looking up predictions for that movie, and I stumbled upon this lovely site (by the way, the prediction was 167/390, which was pretty close to how things ended up). Can't believe that was almost 11 years ago!

Re: December release dates, the amount of money any of the 100m OW December movies ended up making is more or less the amount they would have made in any other calendar configuration, just the way they get there on a daily basis is shifted around. If TFA or NWH had released a year later and had the Rogue One/AWOW calendar configurations, they probably would have made 110-120m in their second weekend and then pull off some crazy number like a 40m second Monday or something. The 25th and 26th are particularly boosted days, so TFA got lucky in that its 2nd and 3rd weekend records are extra boosted compared to what they could have been, and that's what contributes to those records being particularly long lasting, but even if it didn't have those record 2nd and 3rd weekends, it would have gotten to that 936m number (more or less).

It might have if it released in May 2022 or December 2024 🤷‍♂️

Bro Nickelodeon about to sue James Cameron for real

Okay, but how much would it have made in May 2022?

This movie's WW BO is more likely to go under NWH DOM than it is to beat NWH WW/pass 2 billion (not that I think it will). I don't know who Matt Ramos is, but he knows nothing about box office, I can say that.

Last year, we had Sound of Freedom on July 4. This year, we have Sound of Hope on July 4. What's will we hear the sound of next year?

That's cool and all, but did you know that GOTG 3 would have opened to 200 million in May 2022?

500 mill DOM for Spider-Man would be disappointing pre-2020? Pre-2020, not a single Spider-Man film made more than 404 mill DOM.

Just a friendly reminder that it was this weekend 5 years ago (same calendar configuration too) that Avengers Endgame premiered and broke a bunch of records. I wonder when we'll get a movie that can top that opening weekend, which is currently the longest held opening weekend record.

My wife, at 1030pm, told me that her and her friend are going to a 1130pm showing tonight, so I guess walk ups are definitely happening with more casual fans. What are the odds this gets to a 113 mill opening?

I hate this narrative that female driven movies specifically are frontloaded at the box office and always pointing at Twilight as the main example of this "trend", when it's just the nature of having a rabid fanbase. But for every Twilight movie, there's a Hunger Games or Barbie or Wonder Woman that are female driven and have relatively good (in the case of HG) or very good legs (in the case of WW and Barbie). And even then, these Twilight movies were 10-15 years ago, not exactly a great comp. Let's push the narrative that male driven movies are frontloaded because of movies like AMWQ, Flash, Shazam, etc. No, it's just the rapid fanbases that push the movies' multipliers in the high 1-low 2 range, not being female driven (Harry Potter, DC, MCU nowadays, Twilight, etc.). I do think this movie will be relatively frontloaded, but that's on the basis of Taylor Swift's rapid fanbase, not because it is female driven.

I'm not a bot 🥺

Can someone explain to me why all of Disney's major releases seem to be in a theater count that is divisible by 5 every single weekend since COVID reopenings? The only exceptions I've found are the OW for ATWOW, BPWF, DSMOM, and the fourth weekend of Shang Chi. It seems too intentional and gone on for too long to be a coincidence.