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About TLK

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  • Birthday 11/11/1983

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  1. No, it is literally too late when you have more infections outside New York than inside. China didn't just quarantine Hubei, they quarantined practically the entire country. There are governors in United States who aren't even locking down their states. There is no piecemeal approach in a pandemic.
  2. It is too late to quarantine New York now especially when you want to re-open US economy in two weeks.
  3. Everything depends on how hard a country or a region is hit. People in Wuhan , Lombardy and even New York are going to shy away from crowded places for months to come. Cold, dark and crowded movie theaters are the last place you want to be during and after an epidemic.
  4. Biden doesn't look good physically and mentally. He is winning the Democratic primary only because he was Obama's VP. That won't help him in the GE against Trump when the campaigning starts. Trump's entire base is completely intact and all he has to do is to make Biden more unpopular and he wins the middle.
  5. Disney's parent company is getting hammered with ESPN not showing any live sports and all the theme parks closed worldwide. I wonder if they are regretting investing so much of their liquid cash and assuming billions in debt in buying Fox.
  6. The issue has always been that if the virus spreads too rapidly it will overwhelm the healthcare system. The economy is going to be in a far worse shape if that happens. China shut everything down for 2 months and it looks like they've succeeded in slowing down the virus while not going into a great depression. It can be done. The recession is inevitable no matter what you do.
  7. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. In many countries it is very common for people to have multiple mobile connections, mainly for business reasons. If the business is floundering then a lot of people are going to disconnect any extra mobile phones to save money. 15 million disconnections out of 950 million makes sense in the context.
  8. I don't agree with this doom and gloom about theatrical. People will go back to doing what they were doing once COVID19 runs its course whether it is in 3 months or 6 months.
  9. Trump is a king of distraction and the Democrats are so stupid that they always oblige. That's why he will be re-elected. The correct solution is to ignore him. Let him and his followers keep calling it the Chinese virus.
  10. "Herd immunity" is a stupid strategy to fight a virus that can overwhelm your healthcare system in a matter of days. This is also one of the reasons I'm not being too harsh on China. The first human case probably happened in mid-November and I don't think the Chinese authorities completely understood the magnitude of the crisis they were dealing with until early January. They have done a pretty good job of shutting it down since then.
  11. I don't think Iranian numbers are off significantly. They are fairly comparable to Italy in terms of number of cases. The death rate is a little higher in Italy but Iran has a fairly young population compared to Italy (6% 65+ compared to 23% 65+ population in Italy) so that's consistent with what you'd expect. Check the graphs. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
  12. Testing isn't pointless because you are catching the young people with mild symptoms who are carriers and you can quarantine them. That's how China got it under control. At one point they were testing everyone with fever in Hubei province.
  13. On March 4th Spain had 2 deaths out of 228 cases so less than 1%. They are now at 4.5%.
  14. Iran and Italy had lower mortality rate 10-15 days ago. For example, Italy had 107 deaths and 3089 total cases on March 4th while Iran had 92 deaths and 2922 cases on the same date. It is rising now because their healthcare systems have been overwhelmed and some serious cases on ventilator aren't making it after spending days in ICU. Both of these countries are in almost complete lockdown for a few days so it should start declining by next week.
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