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About TLK

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  • Birthday 11/11/1983

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  1. I think the movie looks pretty dark and not appropriate as a holiday release. January works fine for a movie like this.
  2. Trailer may come out with Abominable next week. There is still plenty of time to market the movie.
  3. I am not so sure about that. Harry Potter was a bigger phenomena and even then only 3 of its movies crossed $100 million. Neither of the two prequels/spin-offs came close. None of the Hobbit movies did $100 million OW and , yes, I know a couple of them could've cleared $100 million if they were November openers. Edited to add - A Game of Thrones film will have to be R-rated for sure and that will further reduce the chances of $100 million OW.
  4. Downton presales are huge and it will be frontloaded. Is there even a recent movie that we can compare it to ?
  5. I think Hustlers is a more serious movie than what the trailers showed. It is not the type of genre movie that JLo's fans expect from her so if people are going to watch it for comedy, action or romance they may be disappointed.
  6. There is no reason why Maleficent should have great pre-sales a month out. I still see it as a $45-50 million opener (Down 30% from the first one) once Disney marketing kicks in..
  7. Doctor Sleep (the book) is so different from The Shining that a lot of people are going to be disappointed and a 3X multiplier may not happen but I think it can open to $30 million if it is marketed correctly as its own thing.
  8. Yeah, I think $4 million previews will make $40 million very likely but I'm still going with a $30 million OW.
  9. I was going to make the same point. Horror is a young-skewing genre and a lot of them are either not very familiar with The Shining or they don't care about it. I can understand why the first trailer had to showcase the link to The Shining but the second trailer should've been about the plot of this movie with no references to the Kubrick film. This is an interesting book on its own but the only memorable things in this trailer are the scenes from The Shining.
  10. I don't think Hustlers will go over $30 million . It is a R-rated stripper movie and they have a ceiling. It should have a good multiplier though. Both CA and T6 should open above that.
  11. Terminator is going to be a difficult one to predict. I'm in the $30-35 million OW range unless the reviews are great.
  12. I think they were using the trailers as online ads so you get a view but not likes or comments. A youtube trailer ad is much, much cheaper than a TV ad so it makes a lot of sense for smaller distributors.
  13. It:1 had almost 200 million trailer views in the first 24 hours. That's a crazy number for anything that is not a big Disney tentpole. You can argue that even its $700 million WW total was a bit "disappointing" compared to the initial hype.
  14. 20th century fox trailers don't have a lot of views. Ford vs Ferrari has 5.5 million views. King's man has 6 million and so on. I don't think they promote their trailers like some other distributors do by running them as ads. That said I don't expect Ad Astra to come close to some other big SciFi movies. $20-25 million is a decent OW target if the reviews are good.
  15. The trailer on JLo's Instagram has 16 million views. The facebook trailer has 18 million+ views. I don't consider trailer views stats to be particularly relevant unless they are over the top great or really bad but Hustlers has a lot of trailer views FWIW.
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