TLK

I think Dragon Tattoo can get to 85-90 million DOM, which isn't a bad total for a movie of its genre.

Angelina Jolie's non-action movies don't make much money. Even 'A Mighty Heart' with all its accompanied publicity and a million times more relevance to a US viewership failed to make 10 million DOM.

I'm not surprised that Dragon Tattoo is doing poorly compared to the original as it is an almost scene by scene remake of a Swedish movie based on a Swedish novel. Most fans of the book have already seen the Swedish movie and the new movie isn't adding much to what they already know.

All sarcasm aside, anything over 2 million for TDH is good. War Horse's 7.5 million is excellent. Ouch for TinTin and I don't think Dragon Tattoo will end up increasing by 130% either.

Internationally, yes. DOM, probably not but movies based on books have to be widely accessible to have mainstream success. This is a R rated movie with limited appeal and if it makes 80-90 million DOM and another 140-150 OS it has done well. The whole 100 million budget thing is an entirely different topic. I have no idea what Fincher did with that kind of budget in a movie that didn't have any genuine A-list actors and no CGI.

Only 20% Friday jump for Dragon Tattoo? Anything less than 30% is bad news for a $100 million movie like this.

If people are busy during Holidays then they are unlikely to have a lot of spare time in January. I guess we'll know more in ten days but based on early numbers this isn't going to beat TSN's DOM.

-4.4% drop for Dragon Tattoo is okay but it won't be able to match TSN's DOM total.

It should do okay overseas. The issue is that books aren't very popular outside US and Europe. Swedish movie did well in Europe so I don't know how much demand for English version will be there. It should do fine for its genre but don't expect Tentpole type numbers from Overseas markets. That just isn't happening.

Yeah. 5 million Wednesday(+Tuesday evening) is a disappointing number. This movie is unlikely to have a great WOM either because it has limited appeal outside the fanbase so I'll be surprised if it manages to do TSN numbers from here on.

I think your numbers may be a bit too high. Saturday should be comparatively weak so MI:4 is looking at mid-high 20s and DT at low 20s at best. Tintin may do 14-15 million but low teens is probably more likely.

Last year was a bit better. Little Fockers opened to above 7.1 million while there were two more movies above 5.5 million. There is no one-to-one correspondence as MI:4 has followed a rather weird pattern with its staggered opening. In dollar terms, it is going to be making a million less than LF while DT will be making about the same as True Grit and SH2 is underperforming Tron by a million.

These are good numbers overall. Dragon Tattoo is probably slightly overperforming industry expectations while MI:4's opening day numbers have been impacted by its limited release schedule last weekend but 6 million Wednesday is a pretty good number in the context of this year's Boxoffice.

Hollywood reporter's early numbers are always industry predictions and not actual estimates. Wait for Nicki's numbers. However, I won't be surprised by any of these numbers. MI:4 has been out since last weekend and Dragon Tattoo is not a tentpole movie so 5 million is a pretty good opening Wednesday.

Holidays+IMAX makes it possible.

I know RS has Dragon Tattoo tracking at 40 million but I'll be surprised if it breaks 30 million. I know it has a large fanbase but the buzz isn't there for it to be a 40 million opener in a crowded Boxoffice,

Good hold for SH2 but Nikki overestimated its Friday numbers so we may have to wait for the official estimates.

I think ticket prices are playing a part but overall we are talking about a difference of 4-5% in the gross which isn't what separates a hit movie from an average one.

I don't want to get into a debate about economics and I am far from an expert on US economy but US/Europe almost went into depression in 2008 and it is a miracle that some of these economies are still standing. There is only so much Governments can do after things go really, really bad.**- I don't know much about internal US politics but from my vantage point you can have a very competent Government and you can still get overwhelmed by massive Global downturn.

It will create jobs for Scratchers but I am not really sure what else it will achieve.

I don't think economy has much to do with anything frankly. US economy is statistically doing better this year compared to last and the box office is much weaker.I think explanation is much simpler. NYE didn't underperform because of economy, the movie just sucked. SH1 was an okay movie and its sequel is looking to drop from the original movie. Alvin 3 is a threequel, enough said. We haven't had a must-see wide release movie this year since DH2. Maybe Muppets but Muppets has never been a major Cinema franchise.

I am not putting any stock in that tracking. RS has been way overpredicting movies this fall/winter. They had NYE at about 40 million and SH2 at 60 million +. They may get Alvin right but it is a kids movie so if tracking is right, it is only by accident.

SH was good but not a memorable movie so maybe that's why people aren't rushing out to watch the sequel . I think MI:4 is probably taking away a good bit of its viewers too. It is telling that MI:4 may be the bigger storyline this weekend so Is Tom Cruise back?

I think scheduling has been awful and that is the reason for subpar showing of family movies. All of them opened at the same time s much so that Hugo had to reduce its screen counts and stagger its opening. Five movies are to open on 21st and a couple of them will definitely get lost considering Alvin and SH2 will open 5 days earlier. Movies like The Darkest Hour and Dragon Tattoo should've opened either this weekend or the next one not on the 21st.

http://www.deadline.com/2011/12/box-office-breaking-dawn-1-for-third-weekend-in-a-row-muppets-2-hugo-3/ 1. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (Summit) Week 3 [4,046 Theaters] Friday $5.5M, Saturday $7.2M, Weekend $17M (-60%), Cume $247.4M 2. The Muppets (Disney) Week 2 [3,440 Theaters] Friday $2.7M, Saturday $5.1M, Weekend $11M (-63%), Cume $56.3M 3. Hugo 3D (Paramount) Week 2 [1,840 Theaters] Friday $2M, Saturday $3.4M, Weekend $7.5M (-36%), Cume $25.1M 4. Arthur Christmas 3D (Sony) Week 2 [3,376 Theaters] Friday $1.6M (-64%), Saturday $3.5M, Weekend $7.3M (-39%), Cume $25.1M 5. Happy Feet 3D (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,536 Theaters] Friday $1.4M, Saturday $2.8M, Weekend $5.8M, Cume $51.6M 6. Jack And Jill (Sony) Week 3 [3,049 Theaters] Friday $1.5M, Saturday $2.5M, Weekend $5.5M, Cume $64.3M 7. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) Week 3 [574 Theaters] Friday $1.4M, Saturday $2.2M, Weekend $5.2M, Cume $18.1M 8. Immortals 3D (Relativity) Week 4 [2,627 Theaters] Friday $1.3M, Saturday $1.8M, Weekend $4.3M, Cume $75.5M 9. Tower Heist (Universal) Week 5 [2,404 Theaters] Friday $1.2M, Saturday $1.8M, Weekend $4M, Cume $70.6M 10. Puss In Boots (DreamWorks Anim/Paramount) Week 6 [2,750 Theaters] Friday $700K, Saturday $1.4M, Weekend $3M, Cume $139.5M Nikki is saying about 30% Saturday increase for BD1 which seems pretty good.