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TLK

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Everything posted by TLK

  1. Ghostbusters will do very well at the domestic box office but it will probably tank Overseas.
  2. I am a bit torn about the budget thing in this case. A budget cut means fewer action scenes and less CGI. I am not sure if that'll be a good thing for a Terminator movie. The biggest issue is that they needed to put some distance between the last flop and the new movie.
  3. I think they are doing early previews next week which is going to hurt Thursday preview numbers for the next few days.
  4. Jumanji should do $300 million with a $70 million opening. Seems right for Richard Jewell although I won't be surprised with $100 million+ total.
  5. Anyone remember Dumbo's Thursday preview numbers ?
  6. All A-list lead actresses (that excludes Nicole Kidman etc.) have shit filmography because they can't have it all unlike A-list lead actors. Pitt, DiCaprio and a handful of other actors can get around 1-2 big budget movies each year that pays them their asking price and are directed by the cream of the crop type of directors. For actresses like Jolie, Bullock etc. they can get either $10 million paycheck with middling directors in a big studio film or a $10 million film with an auteur. I don't blame them for taking the big paycheck.
  7. The budget is too high for a January movie but it should do alright with the family crowd.
  8. Tracking came in at $40 million+. https://deadline.com/2019/10/terminator-dark-fate-box-office-opening-weekend-projection-1202756808/ This is an encouraging number because the trailers weren't all that great and they can build on it with strong marketing.
  9. $40 million for T:DF is encouraging. It means that the fanbase is largely on board. They can get it to $50 million with good reviews and strong marketing.
  10. Sony has done a good job of creating awareness for the movie and the social media is fairly strong. Now they need to sell it.
  11. Lee made Billy Lynn for $40 million so I was expecting the budget for this one to be $80-90 million. They will need strong overseas returns just to break even with that $138 million budget.
  12. A24 movies open well in LA/NYC. Lighthouse will easily do $60k PTA from 4 theaters. May go over $75k if A24 makes a hard push.
  13. The Irishman's budget is insane and it likely wouldn't have been able to recover it from its theatrical run.
  14. Aurora shooting had a big impact on TDKR's opening weekend. The movie was trending for over $180 million weekend but the Friday kept trending down after the shootings. Check the thread for its opening weekend if it is still available.
  15. Terminator won't flop. There is still a big Worldwide fanbase that'll show up. Gemini Man was always going to be tricky after the reaction Billy Lynn's 120fps got from critics. Billy Lynn isn't a bad movie at all so I have hope for this one too.
  16. I had Maleficent at $45-50 million OW. That corresponds to a 30-35% drop from the first movie which had decent reception and a good multiplier. I don't know why BOP had it dropping nearly 50%.
  17. So is there a regional divide ? Is it doing comparatively better in suburban areas ?
  18. It could be frontloaded but it is playing very well with the older demographics. That usually means good legs and it won't be facing any direct competition for a while. A $32 million + opening makes a $100 million total quite possible.
  19. Okay, so who had both Downton Abbey and Hustlers making $100 million DOM as it is a very realistic possibility now?
  20. I think the movie looks pretty dark and not appropriate as a holiday release. January works fine for a movie like this.
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