TLK
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Everything posted by TLK
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Sony never released any official numbers until Thursday. Their estimate for Tuesday was $35 million and I really don't see any controversy unless they were trying to package Canadian previews as part of their opening day, which they obviously aren't. -
Weren't there evening previews in Canada? A number of people posted 8 PM and 9 PM sellout reports from Canada. BTW, Sony is saying that the movie made 35 million dollars without including Candian previews so I don't see how this is similar to the Paramount situation.
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Its drop will be determined by the evening business today. It can drop by over 40% if the evening business is bad enough.
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Am I missing something here? I haven't read the entire thread.
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I think BOM has it wrong. LA Times also mentioned $59.2 million as its total gross while BOM has it at 58.35.
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In my experience rival studios are correct more often than not. eg., WB is saying 150 for TDKR while rival studios are saying 170+.
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^^^ Not necessarily.. Sony was predicting 120 until yesterday and they have moved it up to 130 while anonymous "analysts" have moved their projections from 120-140 to as much as 150.
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http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-box-office-spider-man-savages-katy-perry-20120705,0,3874643.storySony has upped its projection of TASM from 120 to 130 while anonymous industry insiders still think it can make 150 million by Sunday.
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Yeah but I think Tuesday-Wednesday dynamic also played a part. It will probably drop 25% on Thursday instead of TF1's 35%.
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Big Drop. This is why Industry experts were predicting only 140 million and sony wasn't going above 120 million.
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Don't know about the production budget but big studios get a ton of corporate sponsorship to pay for marketing budgets for movies like this. Everything from product placements in the movie to contracts with soft drink, apparel companies etc.
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Considering the skepticism regarding a reboot, if it make around 150 then it was highly effective.
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If it makes around 29-30 million today then 150 is very likely. WOM appears to be good and 6 days are more than enough for WOM to kick in.
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Spidey does well with < 18 demographics too. I was talking more about the gender breakdown. TF movies are typically 60%+ male and even with children, Transformers are more popular with boys.
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TASM is more of a family flick than TF1,2,3 so it should have good holds over this Holiday weekend. I think 150 million 6-day is definitely in play.
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My Optimistic Projection :D33/29/21/25/27/25 = 160 million
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It isn't very likely but it isn't impossible. Enough hype and you can get to 35-40 million. TDK did 18.7 and I am expecting 30 million based just on natural progression of its fanbase and popularity of midnights these days.
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However, I can't rule out 38 million + midnights which will keep 100 million OD in play.
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I think TDKR's problem is going ot be its length. It is about half an hour longer than TA which translates to one less show per screen.
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It was doing boffo business in New York. Among the theaters I was tracking it had nearly 450 shows (started with 400 in the afternoon) and nearly 50 sellouts. Better than MM and Ted did combined in New York and neither had 3D/IMAX. I am expecting a 25 million+ Tuesday excl. midnight. It was easily doing better business than either Snow White or Prometheus nationwide. Prometheus had 1000 less theaters and Snow White was only in 2D.
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If it made around 9 million from matinees then it should be able to get to 28-30 million as night business appears to be pretty strong everywhere while matinees were middling at best.
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Since when did a computer tech forum become an authority on GA WOM? Why not take into account GA IMDB rating ( solid 7.7) or RT ( solid 4/5) ?
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I thnk 7.5 million is a solid opening and for the first 24 hours, at least, TASM is behaving similar to other recent July 04 blockbusters. This is not a frontloaded weekend and movies tend to make money over the entirety of the week.
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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-amazing-spider-344625
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^^^ Speaking of Snow White,The Lorax, Safe House and Ted, Universal is having a pretty good year with 4 100+ movies so far. Battleship is their only disappointment but Hasbro gets to share in the pain.
