TLK

Agree. It was just killing it after 8 PM everywhere. I saw a bunch of theaters add shows after 10 and 11PM. If anything it can even exceed 23 million. BTW, my sense is that it will do pretty well on Saturday. It had so-so midnights, solid matinees and really good late evenings. This is not the pattern of a frontloaded movie.

^^^ Yeah evenings are looking pretty strong, especially on the west coast and FWIW the movie has been trending on twitter since Midnight Eastern so the buzz is there.

How is it doing in your theaters?

Legs will depend on the WOM and the fact that this movie is geared towards women (or at least women are the most interested demographics). Summer movies that go for female demo usually have the best legs. Hell, even WTE is dropping better than TD and Battleship right now.

Everyone backed off higher predictions after UNI lowballed the movie. Even trade publications were talking about 40 million opening.

I think part of this is the post-Avengers reality. Sony execs were predicting 80 million for MIB3 and it only made 69 million. Every movie for the past 3 weeks has underperformed and I expect lowered expectations for Prometheus and Madagascar 3 , too.

Madagascar 3 will hurt it but I am not sure about Prometheus. Prometheus is going for 18+ male demo while Snow White has the 13-25 female demo. Not much overlap.

Article from Variety. Same Info but I liked the quote from a rival studio exec.http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118054911

Andrew Stewart tweeted $1.5 million opening day in France. Is it confirmed?

That's a pretty good drop for MIB3. I think it is going to have a good summer run and is going to behave more like an original movie rather than a sequel.

Not necessarily. Good WOM and summer weekdays can carry it to over 200 million. Not very likely but this isn't a typical sequel (10 year gap) and will behave more like a regular opener.

They can't really reboot it. MIB without Will Smith makes very little sense and if you are keeping WS then how can you ever call it a reboot?

What difference does it make to you? It isn't like they were sharing profit with you when they were US-owned. I don't think Wanda group is going to change anything.

Problem with Taylor Kitsch is that he had zero track record and he was given two 200-250 million dollar movies. Both movies will end up being two of the biggest Domestic bombs of recent years. He is not going to get a lot of big roles any time soon.

TF1 > TF3 >>>>> TF2 I think this is one of those franchises that require a reboot.

^^^ That's a hell of a trailer. Michael Bay is good at what he does.

^^^^ I agree with kyky. Most plays just don't do well when adapted to movies. Secondly, making a killing on the Broadway in New York doesn't really guarantee that the movie will do equally well Nationally or Internationally. To be fair, the movie does have Tom Cruise so it should do better in theory but there are no guarantees. I won't be surprised if That's My Boy easily wins the weekend over RoA.

True to an extent but Johnny Depp doesn't really have Will Smith's track record. I can see Men In Black 3 bombing but I don't think it is likely. I think more likely scenario is MIB3 under-performing all these 90 million 4-day expectations.

Of course, Snow White has a fanbase. How else do you think Mirror Mirror made over 160 million worldiwde? I am sure that Julia Roberts helped the movie but it doesn't explain how a Godawful Fairytale movie like Red Riding Hood made 90 million worldwide. According to BO.com , Snow White has 759k Facebook fans while TA had about a million at this point in its release schedule. That number may not mean much in terms of Box Office but it demonstrates that there is a non-trivial fanbase backing the movie.Men In Black 3 has Will Smith. When was the last time Smith had a bomb? He took a dark, depressing movie about a suicidal man and led it to 70 million dollars over Christmas holidays. Name another actor who can do this. Until proven otherwise, I have no reason to underestimate Will Smith at the Box Office.

Rock of Ages is a musical about rock and roll. It is the worst of both worlds as guys don't like musicals and women viewers tend to avoid rock and roll themed movies. Snow White should open to 40 million+ because of teens, younger women and the buzz associated with it. Bad WOM means it won't make much above 100 million but for the Rock of Ages nothing in excess of 20 million opening is guaranteed.

Horrible number for BS. TA can still make 60+ with 16 million. It will need a 55%+ Saturday increase and a soft sunday drop.

I don't think either Snow White or Prometheus will bomb(<100 million DOM) as both movies have built in fanbases of sort, good early buzz and are being marketed well. MIB:3 has Will Smith so it should do 80 million 4-day irrespective of reviews. This weekend was bad but there is nothing shocking about any of these three movies bombing so I think it is a bit early to press the panic button. If MIB: 3 bombs then , well, ....

Well, Hancock made a ton of money but that was probably all Will Smith.

Battleship had aliens and explosions. They were using the Transformers formula but it didn't work. To the credit of Universal, they have gone in the other direction with Snow White. A lot of people don't want Kristen Stewart for the role of Snow White but having Stewart and Hemsworth gives the movie star power and a shot at success. Can you imagine a big budget Snow White and The Huntsman movie with some unknown actors? Universal would've been completely doomed.

Cost-cutting. If studios think that their product will sell itself then they go with unknown or little known actors. It worked with movies like Avatar and Transformers.