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A2k Raptor

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A2k Raptor last won the day on May 13

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  1. $15 is touch and go if it doesn't hit $10 ow.
  2. after aou it looked like no cbm would beat ta but this year bp and aiw both beat it. after bvs and ss, wondr didn't look like it would do big. jl did bad but wondr2 and shazam may do great. after x3 and wolverine:origins things looked bleak for x-men. after tokyo drift f&f looked dead but is a global monster now with a spinoff in production. jw followed jp2 and jp3's bad reception and largely declining gross. a franchise like sw can't be in trouble when 3 movies did 4.5b combined, and only solo is flying low
  3. 90/110 tough imo unless Fri actual is higher... 14.1 21.5 = 35.6 od 27.1 (+26%) 24.9 (-8%) = 87.6 3-day ow 20.2 (-19%) = 107.8 4-day ow
  4. if you think dp2 hold is scawy i have an outlet for you
  5. SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

    Optimistically, if it does 2.8x the 3-day dom ow (inflated due to Sunday), gets to 250-260 dom depending on actuals. So needs minimum 240-250 os for 500 ww. 240 dom + 210 os (folks are saying less...can't even wrap my head around that! Haven't looked at the numbers though) = 450 ww seems like a more achievable target. Would give a Dom-OS split of 53-47.
  6. So $10-10.5 ow for Solo? Gives $16-17 total with 1.6x
  7. What Sat bump from true Friday are we expecting? TLJ was +7.2% (64/59.7) RO was +10.0% (46.3/42.1) TFA was +10.0% (68.3/62.1) Feeling +20% at most for Solo 14 + 22.5 + 27 (+20%) + 24.6 (-9%) + 20 (-19%) = 108.1 4-day (88.1 3-day)
  8. 12+18(+50%)+17(-5.5%)+14(-17.6%) = 61 165+61=226 cume If POTC5 can add 1.2x it's 4-day MD ow including previews to it's cume then DP2 can add 1.3x it's 4-day MD 2nd weekend to it's cume on account of absence of preview-front-loading alone. 226+1.3*61=305+
  9. It's on 22.4 after 2 on thu. 3-day should stay flat from the ow or even rise a bit: 3.75 (+87.5%) + 5.15 (+37.5%) + 4.9 (-5.5%) + 4.1 (-17%) = 13.8 3-day / 17.9 4-day so 22.4 + 17.9 = 40.3 cume. 28 away from 68 dom (5x the ow). looks very much on cards unless my 13.8 2nd weekend is over-optimistic. EDIT: Deadline's 4-day projection (early) is less than my 3-day, so I may certainly have gone over-board
  10. JL's preview to ow multiplier gives Solo 93.8/13*14.1 = 101.7 On one hand JL did not have Sunday boost, a semi-sequel. On the other hand RO, TLJ and TFA all 3 had very low preview to OW multis and Solo is backloaded to it's credit (notwithstanding the low previews). JL had a 28.2% Sat bump from true Fri. If Solo's true Fri is 23-26 (37-40 Fri) then the same bump gives 29.5-33.3 Sat. 37.0-40.0 Fri 29.5-33.3 Sat (using 28%+ bump from true Friday) 27.1-30.6 Sun (using -8%) = 93.6-103.9 3-day (98.75 average) 21.7-24.5 Mon (using -20%) = 115.3-128.4 4-day (121.9 average)
  11. yeah it will be similar to JL but with Sunday boost and better Mon. JL got the Thanksgiving boost later. Still should leg it better than JL, 100*2.65=265 or so I guess.
  12. Using 39 Friday 14 25 31.5 (+26%) 29 (-8%) 23.5 (-19%) = 99.5 3-day / 123 4-day
  13. JL OS was 429 If Solo OS-China shows a 55% drop from RO OS-China it does 204.5 OS-China (454.5*0.45). Add 15.5 in China for 204.5 + 15.5 = 220 OS Then <229 Dom will take Solo WW below JL OS. If Solo's gonna do 2.65x the FSS then ~86.5 FSS gives 229 dom. If the Friday is 32-33 then it's possible but if it's 35-37 then thinking no.
  14. #3 of all mcu sequels behind ca2's 2.73x and gotg2's 2.66x, and ahead of thor3's 2.57x.
  15. AIW had one of the best Thu holds; 605.2 dom ... will be past TLJ and TA by Mem Day. and will be <35 away from Titanic.
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