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MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

a2k

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a2k last won the day on May 13 2018

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  1. PatF is under-rated in it's boxoffice appreciation. It's prod budget was 105m in 2009 compared to 150m for Bolt 2008. Their global cumes are not that dissimilar at 267 PatF vs 310 Bolt with PatF matching the prod budget at Dom bo. When traditional animation was at a decline and WDAS had not started it's golden run with CG animation, this performance was very good. Home Market according to the-numbers.com : PatF Est. Domestic DVD Sales $108,389,200 Details Est. Domestic Blu-ray Sales $10,762,475 Details Total Est. Domestic Video Sales $119,151,675 Bolt Est. Domestic DVD Sales $97,458,421 Details Total Est. Domestic Video Sales $97,458,421
  2. WIR2 Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $199,178,489 39.3% + Foreign: $307,626,123 60.7% = Worldwide: $506,804,612 WIR2's Dom will be 11 ahead of WIR1 and OS-China will actually be 12-13 behind. But 39 odd from China takes it's WW head of WIR1 which according to Mojo has 0 from China. WDAS Global grosses. Rank Title (click to view) Studio Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % Year 1 Frozen BV $1,276.5 $400.7 31.4% $875.7 68.6% 2013 2 Zootopia BV $1,023.8 $341.3 33.3% $682.5 66.7% 2016 3 Big Hero 6 BV $657.8 $222.5 33.8% $435.3 66.2% 2014 4 Moana BV $643.3 $248.8 38.7% $394.6 61.3% 2016 5 Tangled BV $591.8 $200.8 33.9% $391.0 66.1% 2010 6 Ralph Breaks the Internet BV $506.8 $199.2 39.3% $307.6 60.7% 2018 7 Wreck-It Ralph BV $471.2 $189.4 40.2% $281.8 59.8% 2012 8 Bolt BV $310.0 $114.1 36.8% $195.9 63.2% 2008 9 The Princess and the Frog BV $267.0 $104.4 39.1% $162.6 60.9% 2009 10 Meet the Robinsons BV $169.3 $97.8 57.8% $71.5 42.2% 2007 11 Winnie the Pooh BV $49.9 $26.7 53.5% $23.2 46.5% 2011
  3. Kingsman1's dom was 3.07 * 4-day Isolating Alita's Thu and using that multi gives 8.72 + 33.53 * 3.07 = 111.66 Dom Gonna use this formula everyday, updating the multiplier, as daily numbers come in and see where the dom heads.
  4. Monday Actuals Rank* Title Friday 2/15 Saturday 2/16 Sunday 2/17 Monday 2/18 1 THE LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART Warner Bros. 4,303 $4,402,382 +98.2% / $1,023 $45,877,741 / 8 $8,965,758 +103.7% / $2,084 $54,843,499 / 9 $7,436,530 -17.1% / $1,728 $62,280,029 / 10 $6,948,824 -6.6% / $1,615 $69,228,853 / 11 2 ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL Fox 3,790 $7,523,239 -13.7% / $1,985 $16,239,471 / 2 $11,702,169 +55.5% / $3,088 $27,941,640 / 3 $9,300,205 -20.5% / $2,454 $37,241,845 / 4 $5,008,487 -46.1% / $1,322 $42,250,332 / 5 3 ISN'T IT ROMANTIC Warner Bros. (New Line) 3,444 $4,148,962 -6.1% / $1,205 $10,394,309 / 3 $5,880,169 +41.7% / $1,707 $16,274,478 / 4 $4,218,627 -28.3% / $1,225 $20,493,105 / 5 $2,397,057 -43.2% / $696 $22,890,162 / 6 4 WHAT MEN WANT Paramount 2,912 $2,930,103 -9.9% / $1,006 $28,160,431 / 8 $4,700,098 +60.4% / $1,614 $32,860,529 / 9 $3,045,004 -35.2% / $1,046 $35,905,533 / 10 $1,535,079 -49.6% / $527 $37,440,612 / 11 5 HAPPY DEATH DAY 2U Universal 3,207 $2,837,615 +3.9% / $885 $6,549,115 / 3 $3,978,050 +40.2% / $1,240 $10,527,165 / 4 $2,682,000 -32.6% / $836 $13,209,165 / 5 $1,509,030 -43.7% / $471 $14,718,195 / 6 6 THE UPSIDE STX Entertainment 2,781 $1,345,309 +4.7% / $484 $89,952,340 / 36 $2,430,897 +80.7% / $874 $92,383,237 / 37 $1,715,023 -29.4% / $617 $94,098,260 / 38 $1,021,846 -40.4% / $367 $95,120,106 / 39 7 COLD PURSUIT Lionsgate/Summit 2,630 $1,506,184 +14.4% / $573 $16,628,516 / 8 $2,585,411 +71.7% / $983 $19,213,927 / 9 $1,886,187 -27% / $717 $21,100,114 / 10 $968,330 -48.7% / $368 $22,068,444 / 11 8 GLASS Universal 2,575 $964,805 +2.6% / $375 $101,595,720 / 29 $1,697,640 +76% / $659 $103,293,360 / 30 $1,259,590 -25.8% / $489 $104,552,950 / 31 $702,655 -44.2% / $273 $105,255,605 / 32 9 SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE Sony / Columbia 1,207 $434,639 +43.1% / $360 $181,190,543 / 64 $848,074 +95.1% / $703 $182,038,617 / 65 $736,296 -13.2% / $610 $182,774,913 / 66 $695,152 -5.6% / $576 $183,470,065 / 67 10 GREEN BOOK Universal 1,650 $666,770 +21.2% / $404 $63,672,171 / 92 $1,218,850 +82.8% / $739 $64,891,021 / 93 $1,001,555 -17.8% / $607 $65,892,576 / 94 $624,785 -37.6% / $379 $66,517,361 / 95 11 THE PRODIGY Orion Pictures 2,530 $847,087 +2.6% / $335 $8,712,561 / 8 $1,350,883 +59.5% / $534 $10,063,444 / 9 $970,469 -28.2% / $384 $11,033,913 / 10 $501,721 -48.3% / $198 $11,535,634 / 11 12 RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET Buena Vista 1,354 $173,925 +229.8% / $128 $197,861,169 / 87 $434,973 +150.1% / $321 $198,296,142 / 88 $392,088 -9.9% / $290 $198,688,230 / 89 $490,259 +25% / $362 $199,178,489 / 90 - AQUAMAN Warner Bros. 2,202 $422,226 +27% / $192 $329,908,328 / 57 $816,792 +93.4% / $371 $330,725,120 / 58 $611,514 -25.1% / $278 $331,336,634 / 59 $413,580 -32.4% / $188 $331,750,214 / 60 - A DOG'S WAY HOME Sony / Columbia 880 $194,427 +35.4% / $221 $39,645,821 / 36 $382,305 +96.6% / $434 $40,028,126 / 37 $292,486 -23.5% / $332 $40,320,612 / 38 $331,767 +13.4% / $377 $40,652,379 / 39 - THEY SHALL NOT GROW OLD Warner Bros. 626 $225,867 +56.2% / $361 $14,497,214 / 61 $431,136 +90.9% / $689 $14,928,350 / 62 $358,122 -16.9% / $572 $15,286,472 / 63 $233,062 -34.9% / $372 $15,519,534 / 64 - BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Fox 562 $237,826 +56.7% / $423 $211,269,535 / 106 $386,252 +62.4% / $687 $211,655,787 / 107 $355,836 -7.9% / $633 $212,011,623 / 108 $188,811 -46.9% / $336 $212,200,434 / 109 - A STAR IS BORN (2018) Warner Bros. 643 $183,151 +82.5% / $285 $209,194,839 / 134 $341,898 +86.7% / $532 $209,536,737 / 135 $256,520 -25% / $399 $209,793,257 / 136 $170,600 -33.5% / $265 $209,963,857 / 137 - MARY POPPINS RETURNS Buena Vista 345 $90,276 +36.7% / $262 $170,118,479 / 59 $173,149 +91.8% / $502 $170,291,628 / 60 $152,691 -11.8% / $443 $170,444,319 / 61 $165,440 +8.3% / $480 $170,609,759 / 62 - MISS BALA Sony / Columbia 1,172 $240,095 -25.8% / $205 $13,131,293 / 15 $387,217 +61.3% / $330 $13,518,510 / 16 $328,038 -15.3% / $280 $13,846,548 / 17 $158,456 -51.7% / $135 $14,005,004 / 18 - THE FAVOURITE Fox Searchlight 324 $132,064 +36.3% / $408 $30,675,349 / 85 $260,115 +97% / $803 $30,935,464 / 86 $252,503 -2.9% / $779 $31,187,967 / 87 $148,200 -41.3% / $457 $31,336,167 / 88 - THE KID WHO WOULD BE KING Fox 415 $73,257 +77.1% / $177 $16,018,331 / 22 $146,732 +100.3% / $354 $16,165,063 / 23 $116,661 -20.5% / $281 $16,281,724 / 24 $146,448 +25.5% / $353 $16,428,172 / 25 - VICE Annapurna Pictures 702 $123,338 +31.7% / $176 $45,643,575 / 53 $249,443 +102.2% / $355 $45,893,018 / 54 $200,148 -19.8% / $285 $46,093,166 / 55 $137,710 -31.2% / $196 $46,230,876 / 56 - BUMBLEBEE Paramount 788 $93,423 +24.3% / $119 $126,135,081 / 57 $197,327 +111.2% / $250 $126,332,408 / 58 $151,422 -23.3% / $192 $126,483,830 / 59 $117,890 -22.1% / $150 $126,601,720 / 60 - ESCAPE ROOM Sony / Columbia 635 $152,995 -12.1% / $241 $55,253,762 / 43 $273,364 +78.7% / $430 $55,527,126 / 44 $173,870 -36.4% / $274 $55,700,996 / 45 $99,811 -42.6% / $157 $55,800,807 / 46 - THE MULE Warner Bros. 332 $78,140 +43.6% / $235 $102,875,703 / 64 $137,090 +75.4% / $413 $103,012,793 / 65 $100,705 -26.5% / $303 $103,113,498 / 66 $57,778 -42.6% / $174 $103,171,276 / 67
  5. 100-110m dom, 50-55m returns will give ALITA >30% of it's prod budget Dom. It also will go well over 2x it's prod budget globally. 2.75x * 170 seems likely once China and Japan are done. But your point is well taken.
  6. Kingsman1 dom (128.26) did a great 3.07x it's FSSM (41.76) If Alita FSSM (33.45 using @Charlie's revised Monday of 5.2) has the same 3.07x multiplier we get a dom of 8.7 Thursday + 33.45 * 3.07 = 111.4
  7. Yeah, animations kill on Holiday Mondays. Nothing surprising in Lego being #1 on Monday.
  8. beating ant-man2 will take some shenanigans, 125 dom 150 china 300 os-china-japan // absurd assumption for the sake of it = 575 ww-japan requiring about 48 from japan to beat ant-man2 still think 100-110 below ant-man2 is the benchmark (very impressive compared to pre-release expectations) 110 dom 160 china+japan (127.5 china + 32.5 japan) 240 os-china-japan = 510 ww
  9. Movie that will do 2.5x it's prod budget : ALITA (2.5*170-175 = 425-437.5) Movie that won't do 2.5x it's prod budget : LEGO2 (2.5*99 = 247.5)
  10. This didn't even have the baby I think https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/monsters_university
  11. G14 had enough Godzilla and other monsters. Had enough action with great cinematography, sound and visuals. The problem with it was humans. The Cranston cop out along with a bland lead made the story-telling heavily diluted the emotional investment IMO. Not to mention a waste of Watanabe.
  12. 1132.5 WW according to Mojo (includes Dom Mon but not OS Mon) 5-6 Dom (336-337) + 2-3 OS-Japan + 7-8 Japan (15.5-16.5) = 14-17 more That gives it 1146.5-1149.5 WW Not far from CW and can't be ruled out yet.
  13. Godzilla 1998 is the biggest letdown when it comes to expectations personally
  14. GLASS is 43 away from SPLIT's 278.5 ww (including Dom Monday but not os Monday) Dom could add 10-15 leaving os to get 28-33 to beat SPLIT. All that on a 20 prod budget. --- ALITA over LEGO2 dom? --- MPR will fall below TGS dom (174.34). Still 3.8 away. Feb 15–17 22 $427,000 (Estimate) -48.6% 345 -497 $1,238 $170,455,203 (Estimate) 9 Feb 15–18 22 $508,000 (Estimate) -38.8% 345 -497 $1,472 $170,536,203 (Estimate) 9
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