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Everything posted by a2k
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After 3 weekends Shazam's multi was 2.19x while the final multi was 2.56x (ignoring pre-previews from ow and total). After 3 weekend BoP's multi is 2.19x while the final should be around 2.65x (~87.5 dom) BoP legs disappoint me as much as the ow. Haven't seen the movie but largely received a positive impression of it. Those would be pretty much the same legs as Venom with vastly smaller total. Better legs than Shazam but that had massive competition and a bigger total too.
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that's good bye 90 dom? needs 2.6x this weekend more.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
a2k replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Trolls did 154 dom in Nov 2016 and Onward could come in under imo. Disney owns Fox now but Fox/DW got Trolls right on 125 prod budget and if Disney/Pixar cannot beat that it makes a fun story 😊. -
Sonic 6.4 12.0 (+87.5%) 7.8 (-35%) = 26.2 CotW 1 7.05 9.9 (+40%) 6.7 (-32.5%) = 24.65
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Planet of the Apes trilogy prod budgets: Rise 93m Dawn 209m War 150m Rise is most comparable to COTW in that one central character is motion-captured for most part of the movie. Dawn and War had an army of motion-captured characters with large-scale action involving them and humans. COTW budget on the high end of estimates is par with War. For it's scale that's ludicrous.
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The Grey had a budget of just 25m. Not withstanding that below-the-belt marketing move, it was a very engrossing, well made "Dog" movie set in the wild with A-list production values. No reason why Call of the Wild should have a budget 5-6x that even with grander action scenes.
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COTW will need to go over 50% bump from true Fri to have a good shot at 25 ow. 1.0 6.75 (7.75 od) 10.125 (+50%) 6.89 (-32%) = 24.765 ow
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And we would have gotten the much touted Cats vs Dogs matchup. What a waste.
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What are COTW's OS-China prospects...150 feasible? Even if it legs it to 100 dom it needs 170 OS simply to do 2x the 135 prod budget WW-Ch.
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Greenlight this *immediately*
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Aud RT COTW 91% 224 verified BOY2 44% 87 SONIC 94% 11.9k
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This Sat Alita managed +77%. Lego2 +108%. Sonic should at least flirt with +90% if not +100% IMO. Agree that COTW can do much better than +40% from true Fri.
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Thinking Sonic would edge out COTW with those Fridays 6.25 (+145%) 12.5 (+100%) 8.0 (-36%) = 26.75 1.0 7.5 10.5 (+40%) 7.0 (-33%) = 26.0
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keyser : wow 1m previews for cotw came in higher than my 0.9m projection (dives into mtc data) deadline: wow sonic with 26 close to our 29-40 last moment range (gives box office team a massive raise)
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
a2k replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Great job again. (0.375 Boy2, 1m Cotw) -
Sonic WW/WW-China could be 3.5-4x it's prod budget (95), with Dom being a strong %. Gonna be very profitable imo. 145*0.55 = 80 dom revenue (even using a low-20s weekend I think 145-150 is a safe bet) 200*0.40 = 80 os 160 global on 345 ww covers prod budget and maybe half of global marketing/release costs Strong Thu (-4%). Good shot a 25 weekend, 105+ cume. Adding 2-2.5x that for 155-167.5 takes us back to original expectations after 4-day ow.
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BoP // this weekend is tougher to gauge so predicts could be worse than usual 2.25 (+127%) 3.75 (+67%) 2.5 (-33%) = 8.5 (-50.5%) will give BoP 74.0 10-day. 74 + 8.5*2.0 = 91 74 + 8.5*2.5 = 95.25
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Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D - (2) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $990,000 -2% -44% 4,236 $234 $65,523,283 14 - (-) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $72,000 +9% -48% 846 $85 $35,141,521 58 BOP crosses Suicide Squad OD on Day 14 Date Rank Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days Aug 5, 2016 1 $64,893,248 4,255 $15,251 $64,893,248 1
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Only 1 animation crossed 150% bump this Friday in last 6 years (2014-2019) : 2014 Lego Movie +169% I didn't go back further. 2 crossed 130% but not 140% in that period: 2016 KFP3 132% 2017 Lego Bat 137%
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with inflated Friday and Sunday, and based on a video game. 58-62% is ok imo.
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Using 2.3 Thu 5.06 (+120%) 10.63 (+110%) 6.91 (-35%) = 22.60 (-61%)
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
a2k replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Boy2 has 5 verified ratings now, 0% Should be renamed Oh Boy -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
a2k replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
0.350 previews would lead to a 4-5m ow? Gretel preview to ow multi (12.95x) would give it 4.5 ow while Turning (16.35x) gives 5.7 but this is a sequel. Don't wanna sound panicky but in the worst-case we could be looking at under 10 dom. -
Using updated Wed that translates to 2.64 2.48 5.1 10.7 6.9 = 22.7 (-61%)