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a2k

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Everything posted by a2k

  1. After 3 weekends Shazam's multi was 2.19x while the final multi was 2.56x (ignoring pre-previews from ow and total). After 3 weekend BoP's multi is 2.19x while the final should be around 2.65x (~87.5 dom) BoP legs disappoint me as much as the ow. Haven't seen the movie but largely received a positive impression of it. Those would be pretty much the same legs as Venom with vastly smaller total. Better legs than Shazam but that had massive competition and a bigger total too.
  2. that's good bye 90 dom? needs 2.6x this weekend more.
  3. Dory's adulation surprises me. Felt it was B-level Pixar like Brave but the scale was grander and visually refreshing to be back in the marine world. 94% on critics RT, phew. To each her/his own though. Fav Pixar sequel - TS3 (haven't watched TS4). Fav original - Ratatouille.
  4. Trolls did 154 dom in Nov 2016 and Onward could come in under imo. Disney owns Fox now but Fox/DW got Trolls right on 125 prod budget and if Disney/Pixar cannot beat that it makes a fun story 😊.
  5. Sonic 6.4 12.0 (+87.5%) 7.8 (-35%) = 26.2 CotW 1 7.05 9.9 (+40%) 6.7 (-32.5%) = 24.65
  6. Planet of the Apes trilogy prod budgets: Rise 93m Dawn 209m War 150m Rise is most comparable to COTW in that one central character is motion-captured for most part of the movie. Dawn and War had an army of motion-captured characters with large-scale action involving them and humans. COTW budget on the high end of estimates is par with War. For it's scale that's ludicrous.
  7. The Grey had a budget of just 25m. Not withstanding that below-the-belt marketing move, it was a very engrossing, well made "Dog" movie set in the wild with A-list production values. No reason why Call of the Wild should have a budget 5-6x that even with grander action scenes.
  8. COTW will need to go over 50% bump from true Fri to have a good shot at 25 ow. 1.0 6.75 (7.75 od) 10.125 (+50%) 6.89 (-32%) = 24.765 ow
  9. And we would have gotten the much touted Cats vs Dogs matchup. What a waste.
  10. What are COTW's OS-China prospects...150 feasible? Even if it legs it to 100 dom it needs 170 OS simply to do 2x the 135 prod budget WW-Ch.
  11. Aud RT COTW 91% 224 verified BOY2 44% 87 SONIC 94% 11.9k
  12. This Sat Alita managed +77%. Lego2 +108%. Sonic should at least flirt with +90% if not +100% IMO. Agree that COTW can do much better than +40% from true Fri.
  13. Thinking Sonic would edge out COTW with those Fridays 6.25 (+145%) 12.5 (+100%) 8.0 (-36%) = 26.75 1.0 7.5 10.5 (+40%) 7.0 (-33%) = 26.0
  14. keyser : wow 1m previews for cotw came in higher than my 0.9m projection (dives into mtc data) deadline: wow sonic with 26 close to our 29-40 last moment range (gives box office team a massive raise)
  15. Sonic WW/WW-China could be 3.5-4x it's prod budget (95), with Dom being a strong %. Gonna be very profitable imo. 145*0.55 = 80 dom revenue (even using a low-20s weekend I think 145-150 is a safe bet) 200*0.40 = 80 os 160 global on 345 ww covers prod budget and maybe half of global marketing/release costs Strong Thu (-4%). Good shot a 25 weekend, 105+ cume. Adding 2-2.5x that for 155-167.5 takes us back to original expectations after 4-day ow.
  16. BoP // this weekend is tougher to gauge so predicts could be worse than usual 2.25 (+127%) 3.75 (+67%) 2.5 (-33%) = 8.5 (-50.5%) will give BoP 74.0 10-day. 74 + 8.5*2.0 = 91 74 + 8.5*2.5 = 95.25
  17. Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D - (2) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $990,000 -2% -44% 4,236 $234 $65,523,283 14 - (-) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $72,000 +9% -48% 846 $85 $35,141,521 58 BOP crosses Suicide Squad OD on Day 14 Date Rank Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days Aug 5, 2016 1 $64,893,248 4,255 $15,251 $64,893,248 1
  18. Only 1 animation crossed 150% bump this Friday in last 6 years (2014-2019) : 2014 Lego Movie +169% I didn't go back further. 2 crossed 130% but not 140% in that period: 2016 KFP3 132% 2017 Lego Bat 137%
  19. with inflated Friday and Sunday, and based on a video game. 58-62% is ok imo.
  20. Using 2.3 Thu 5.06 (+120%) 10.63 (+110%) 6.91 (-35%) = 22.60 (-61%)
  21. Boy2 has 5 verified ratings now, 0% Should be renamed Oh Boy
  22. 0.350 previews would lead to a 4-5m ow? Gretel preview to ow multi (12.95x) would give it 4.5 ow while Turning (16.35x) gives 5.7 but this is a sequel. Don't wanna sound panicky but in the worst-case we could be looking at under 10 dom.
  23. Using updated Wed that translates to 2.64 2.48 5.1 10.7 6.9 = 22.7 (-61%)
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