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DamienRoc

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About DamienRoc

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  1. Weekly Questions will have 15 questions, except for the following weeks: Week 1 20 questions Thor Weekend 20 questions Justice League Weekend 20 questions Star Wars Weekend 20 questions Final Weekend 25 questions Part A: 1. Will Madea 2 Open to more than $22.5M? 1000 No 2. Will Geostorm Open to more than $15M? 2000 No 3. Will Only the Brave open to more than $12M? 3000 No 4. Will The Snowman open higher than any of the films mentioned in Q1-3? 4000 No 5. Will Same Kind of Different have a higher PTA than Geostorm? 5000 Yes 6. Will Blade Runner drop less than 55%? 1000 Yes 7. Will The 5 main new openers combine to more than $25M on Saturday? 2000 No 8. Will Happy Death Day stay in the top 2? 3000 Yes 9. Will My Little Pony stay above Victoria and Abdul? 4000 No 10. Will Flatliners have a higher weekend percentage drop than American Assassin? 5000 Yes 11. Will IT make more than $1M on Friday and Saturday? 1000 Yes 12. Will Ninjago drop more than 30% on Sunday? 2000 Yes 13. Will Kingsmen's PTA stay about $1350? 3000 No 14. Will the Foreigner decrease more than 52%? 4000 Yes 15. WIll Geostorm render all life meaningless upon its release? 5000 The real Geostorm happened on November 8, 2017 Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Geostorm make for its 3 day OW? 9.47m 2. What will (Stephen King's) It's Sunday gross be? 980k 3. What will The Snowman's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? 2800 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Boo! A Madea Halloween 3. Geostorm 5. Only the Brave 8. It 10. The Mountains Between Us 12. Kingsman: the Golden Circle Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000 Please note: You are only eligible to score points on these questions if you complete all preseason predictions (and do not edit later) before Thursday October 19th at 11:59pm
  2. Preseason prediction thread Winter 2017/8

    Post predictions here, using this template for a 20k bonus starting score TOP 15 ETC PREDICTION TEMPLATE Below is a helpful template to use for making predictions. All Players who use this template for their predictions will receive 10,000 bonus points for making my life easier when I have to score everything at the end of the game. A: Domestic top 15: 1) Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 750 2) Justice League - 380 3) Thor: Ragnarok - 260 4) Coco - 210 5) Black Panther - 200 6) Pitch Perfect 3 - 140 7) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 130 8) A Bad Moms Christmas - 110 9) Ferdinand - 105 10) Daddy's Home 2 - 92 11) 12 Strong - 90 12) Murder on the Orient Express - 81 13) The Greatest Showman - 77 14) Cloverfield - 72 15) The Commuter - 70 Backup 16*) Maze Runner 3 - 69 *Only used if a film above exits the game B: Top 7 Domestic OW: 1) Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 200 2) Justice League - 160 3) Thor: Ragnarok - 110 4) Black Panther - 100 5) Coco - 50 6) Pitch Perfect 3 - 41 7) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 35 Backup 8*) 12 Strong - 32 *Only used if a film above exits the game C: Worldwide top 12: 1) Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 1,600 2) Justice League - 950 3) Thor: Ragnarok - 825 4) Coco - 650 5) Black Panther - 600 6) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 350 7) Ferdinand - 280 8) Pitch Perfect 3 - 240 9) Murder on the Orient Express - 230 10) A Bad Moms Christmas - 185 11) The Greatest Showman - 170 12) Daddy's Home 2 - 160 Backup 13*) 12 Strong - 150 *Only used if a film above exits the game D: RANDOM FREE QUESTIONS RFQ1: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game: A: 100M Ferdinand B: 200M Black Panther C: 300M Thor: Ragnarok D: 400M Justice League E: 500M Justice League RFQ2: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones Worldwide by the end of the game: A: $1.5B Star Wars: The Last Jedi B: $1B Justice League C: 800M Thor: Ragnarok D: 600M Black Panther E: 400M Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle RFQ3: Predict the top grossing film of each month: A: October (20th and 27th releases only) Boo! A Madea Halloween 2 B: November Justice League C: December Star Wars: The Last Jedi D: January 12 Strong E: February Black Panther DO NOT ALTER THE TEMPLATE! JUST ADD IN YOUR ANSWERS AS REQUIRED. FOLLOWING THIS ONE SIMPLE INSTRUCTION WILL LAND YOU 20,000 BONUS POINTS
  3. If they happen (or DCEU marathons) they will probably count towards JL's gross, not WW's. That seems to be what typically happens for those sorts of things. They get tied into the preview number.
  4. Showed the trailer to some of my friends yesterday, some of whom aren't especially into CBMs, but are horror movie fans. They all seemed pretty impressed. (And surprised that it's going for such a straight horror route.)
  5. I spent some time this evening listening to Another Brick in the Wall. All three parts, though Part 2 is the one that people mostly know, and it's the one they sampled for the trailer. The choice of it as music makes a lot of sense. The sequence from The Wall for Part 2 is pretty much nightmare fuel, already. Selecting it here works for the horror aspect, but it also plays really well into the mutants as a metaphor for puberty. (IMO, the best of the various things mutants have been a metaphor... for.) After doing that, I rewatched the trailer. And, it really works for me. I'm not generally into horror, so close genre fans might not be keen on it, but for me, it's a good 'un. It seems to be a good adaptation of the source material (although, not an exact one: Demon Bear is an inspiration, but not a template, so to speak), but it's also sticking true to the horror roots. There's some good Wes Craven in with those mutant genes. (Apparently Boone pitched a trilogy for the New Mutants, each one having a different type of horror. I dig that.)
  6. Not really? New Mutants had a lot of horror vibes back in the day. A film of them in that genre makes a lot of sense.
  7. Disappointed the title isn't Fantastic Beasts and Where 2 Find Them.
  8. I think part of the problem with this possibly breaking out is actually the bronies. For... well, for worse, really, they've achieved an air about them that's pretty toxic for any other possibly curious adults from viewing it. I mean, I still watch and enjoy the show, even though it's more of a background noise thing, but, jeez, the fan culture is so bad I really don't do anything beyond that. Which is kinda sad, because it's pretty impressive how much they've resisted catering directly to the bronies. We could see some really strange weekend breakdowns, though. Like, possibly large Thursday previews (if they exist), when the hardcore bronies come out, and then an otherwise weak Friday matinee period (because school), with some strong Friday evenings (for bronies again), good Saturday and Sunday Matinees, but possibly weaker evenings for those as the hardcore fans would be sated.
  9. So, over the past week, Wonder Woman earned $428k to finally push itself past the $412m mark. It's now got a total of $412.08m. This, notably, means it's less than $1m away from the 4x mark. Specifically, it needs to get to $413,005,884. The question is, can it do it? We are incredibly late run, and it's not earning a lot. But it also doesn't need to earn a lot to get there. And it's just asking for a bit over 2x the past week (2.16x.) Which should be possible, right? Well, yes, it's possible. Plugging WW back into my simple stupid projector has it needing 31% drops, which it's shown is well within reason at various points in its run. 31% would have it finish with about 413.03m, about 25k to spare. So it seems like a good bet. On the other hand, two of its biggest weekly drops have happened in the past three weeks. One of them was the 67.4% it had in the post-labor day week of September 8-14. And because it lost the summer weekdays and had to contend with a missing holiday, a large drop was expected... especially since it lost nearly half its theaters. However, this past week was also a big drop, of almost 52%. And while there's a theater loss there as well, it does seem to indicate the staying power might not be there anymore. (It is pretty keen though that those two weeks are the only ones with a drop above 50% in its run. That's pretty awesome staying power.) What's probably going to determine whether it gets to the 4x mark is the theater count of all things. WW has shown that it's pretty good about retaining the per theater business, but it is getting shoved aside by the competition. And there are several new films hitting the market over the next several weeks. I count 22 either releasing or expanding to at least 600 theaters by the end of October. That is a lot of movies which will cut out all the leftovers from the summer. Wonder Woman is one of those leftovers at this point. But some theaters may want to hold onto it because it does good for them. We'll have to see. It's possible we may see another mini-expansion in November just prior to JL's release. There might also be double features (possibly even DCEU marathons), but I don't think such things will count towards WW's gross. Absent that, I'd say that the 4x may not happen. Although it's going to barely miss, even in such a case. It should get within 500k, regardless.
  10. Jesus. I'm... not surprised that the Cameron Crowd can't handle any criticism for their hallowed director. But, hell, way to ruin another thread. In any case, while I haven't done it in quite a while, I'm actually going to plug WW back into my box office predictor once we get the weekly actuals tomorrow. I want to see how likely it is to hit a 4x.
  11. Picked up the BD at Costco today for $24. It's a whole dollar cheaper than Target!
  12. So, I haven't seen the movie. I'm not a horror fan. But I'm glad people are enjoying it. However, I do dig nice box office runs, I thought I'd plug It into my Simple Stupid Box Office Projector. Especially since Wonder Woman has wound down and I want something exciting to track, at least until the holidays. Maybe we'll get some other nice films to look at in the next couple of months, but right now, It is definitely King. Anyhoo, if anyone doesn't know, my projector is an incredibly straight forward spreadsheet. It just takes the most recent week, and spits out exactly what it would do over the next sixteen weeks if they all had the very same drop, then adds that to the previous total, if any. These are not predictions, I must stress. For one, it would be ludicrous to expect a film to have the same drop every week, even if it's in a period of the year that's relatively holiday free, as we're looking at now. But it does give us a rough idea of what sort of drops would be required to get to some benchmarks. On with the show! In its first week, It pulled in $158.7m, which is actually the fourth biggest of the year, between the $163.1m for Spider-Man: Homecoming and the $147.8m for Wonder Woman. It had a bigger opening weekend than the two of those, too, but it doesn't have the benefit of summer weekdays. But it is definitely off to an excellent start. Projecting out from the first week is a bit fraught, because preview numbers throw things off. The second weekend drop tends to be larger because of that, which means the second week drop will be bigger, followed by some stabilization. The stabilization may be offset by theater loss, but that's usually only for films that are already doing poorly. Theaters don't like to keep the chaff around. They do like winners. It is a winner. I'm not sure what it would take to become the biggest movie of the year. A reasonable assumption would peg The Last Jedi in the 700m range. It could go much higher, and possibly slightly lower (though not MUCH lower, right?) Still for It to end up north of $700m in 16 weeks, it would need 22% drops. Let's just keep that on the table until we know how weekend 2 is going to fall. However, to just be the biggest movie of the year SO FAR, it only needs to best the $504m of Beauty and the Beast. That's just sixteen 31% drops away! That is not likely, especially since horror tends to drop slightly on the larger side, but it has a chance. The 510m or so it would earn would be just shy of The Sixth Sense's adjusted total, which isn't any sort of adjusted record for a horror film, since both The Exorcist and Jaws adjust to well over $900m, but it's the biggest in semi-recent history. Moving down the yearly list, we have the biggest movie of the summer, and It's studio-mate Wonder Woman, she o' the magnificent legs. Wondy's run isn't quite finished yet, and she might eke out another million or two when all is said and done, but regardless, if It can pull 38% drops, It will end up past $417m, comfortably ahead of Wonder Woman (And, coincidentally, ahead of Toy Story 3, if you want a creepy movie about the loss of childhood innocence.) The $400m mark allows for slightly larger drops, between 39-40%. The Passion of the Christ has the all time record for an R-rated film, at $370.8m. In order to best that, It would need to get just slightly better than 43% drops. WB's biggest R-Rated venture is American Sniper. 45% drops puts Pennywise ahead of Chris Kyle, landing around $352m Flat 50% drops would land It at $317m. At 53% drops, It just misses on the triple century mark, requiring some shenanigans to get the last 550k. 54% drops are enough to land It just ahead of The Sixth Sense' actual total. And 60% drops still get It to $265m, which lands It ahead of Jaws. So there you have It. This is a pretty basic overview, but we really don't know what sort of staying power It's going to have. If you see that second weekend come anywhere close to the 50% mark, I would not doubt that It will find a final tally in the mid-to-upper $300s. I'll update again next week!
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