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BadAtGender

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Everything posted by BadAtGender

  1. It needs 34% weekly drops to get past Passion. Second week will likely be higher (because first week has previews), but I could see it holding very well thereafter. The only real hiccup is Dune nabbing all the IMAX screens. It basically has no competition until that happens.
  2. Oppenheimer is skewed towards IMAX and other PLF, which are in much more limited supply therefore there isn’t as much variance I’d forgotten about all the way out there takes that can happen on this forum Don’t ever change BOT
  3. Extremely intense phenomenal acting not sure the sex scenes were necessary
  4. It's early days, since there's only one week worth of data, but I plugged Barbenheimer into my Simple Stupid Box Office Projector to get some idea of where they might go. For the uninitiated, or anyone who basically doesn't remember me at all since I've posted like, twice since before the beginning of the pandemic, this is a spreadsheet I made to look at what a film would do it it had exactly even weekly drops going forward. This is highly unrealistic, so don't take any of what I say as gospel. It's more to get a roundabout idea of the sort of run a film could have, it it were, y'know, like a spherical cow. Barbie Barbie earned an amazing 258.4m in its first full week. This is the 12th biggest opening week of all time. Fun fact: the movie that was previously the 12th biggest opening week was The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Anyway, if Barbie saw 50% drops from here on out, it would finish up with about 515-520m, which is nothing to sneeze at, but is also kinda boring. Since I've already mentioned SMB, to beat that, the dolls will need about 45% drops. This doesn't seem unrealistic. The 11th biggest opening week belongs to Incredibles 2, which in some ways feels like the last great Pixar film. God, was that really five years ago? Anyway, to top Elastigirl's 608.6m, Barbie will probably be looking at 42% drops. (Did I mention that these sort of projections fluctuate wildly when going off of a massive opening week? No? Well they fluctuate wildly going off a massive opening week.) Breaking into the top 10 of all time requires beating Jurassic World's 653.4m, which is probably asking for 39% drops. And dethroning Titanic as the biggest chick flick of all time would be 38% drops. In the unlikely event that it gets 31% drops, it'll be the biggest film since before the pandemic, and 30% drops would be needed to topple Endgame. What a wonderful world that would be. Besting The Force Awakens is a mere sequence of 27% drops away. In the realm of biggest film directed by a woman, I think the current record holder is Frozen II's 477.4m (Jennifer Lee co-directed and did you know that she's married to Alfred Molina? Because that is just wild. Hollywood romances, y'all. You never know what's going to happen.) 54% drops will do that. For live action film with a woman director, it'd be Captain Marvel's 426.8m (Anna Boden co-directed) Barbie needs 60% drops to get there. And for women solo directing, I think we have the great Patty Jenkins to thank for Wonder Woman's 412.8m. Barbie will top it with 62% drops. Oh, and becoming the biggest WB film in history will require besting the 535m earned by The Dark Knight. Barbie will get there with 48% drops. That's very interesting, because something else about The Dark Knight is its director, Christopher Nolan. I wonder what he's been up to in the 15 years since... Oppenheimer Oh, he's doing small, extremely intense biopics of controversial wartime figures. Well, I suppose he can have his choice of projects. Oppenheimer defied its 3 hour runtime to earn a very cool 127.9m in its opening week. This is amazingly huge for a biopic. Nolan's got a history of pushing for the theatrical experience, and also for the use of actual film and avoidance of computer effects. (Allegedly Oppenheimer has none.) This is a very good selling point and, even beyond the excellence in quality, probably speaks to a long, successful run. Just looking at Nolan's films, 23% drops would be enough to beat The Dark Knight in 4 months. TDKR's 448m would fall at 28% drops. His biggest non-Batman film is 2010's Inception, which earned 292.6m. Oppenheimer just needs to hold at the 43% level to get past it. Oppenheimer could lose 2/3rds of its business every single week and it wills till outgross both Interstellar and Dunkirk. But what about similar films. There aren't that many huge biopics. The biggest is arguably The Passion of the Christ, which pulled 370.8m an astounding 19 years ago. Oppenheimer would need 34% drops to beat Jesus. And American Sniper's 350.2m would fall with 36% drops. And the next biggest is The Blind Side (?) at 256m. Oppy can beat it with 49% drops. In the land of the ridiculous, the biggest Universal Release is the aforementioned Jurassic World. 19% drops are what's needed to get there. Not saying it's likely, but who knows. Barbenheimer Combined Now, just for fun, what if it was a single movie called Barbenheimer. Well it would have had an opening week of 380.26m. This would be the 4th biggest of all time, after Endgame, The Force Awakens, and No Way Home. And actually not far behind the latter two, which clocked in at 390.9m and 385.9m, respectively. Both also had the holiday season, which is even better for box office than late summer weekdays. Let's just quickly run down the top 10 all time to see what Barbenheimer would need to get in there. #10: Jurassic World. 653.4m. It falls with 58% drops. #9: Titanic. 674.3m. & #8: Infinity War: 678.8m. 56% #7: The Way of Water. 684.1m. 55% #6: Black Panther. 700.4m. 54% #5: Maverick. 718.7m. Just slightly better than 53%. 52% blows past it. (Remember what I said about wildly different values from big opening weeks? Yeah, it's even moreso here.) #4: Avatar. 785.2m. 48%. #3: No Way Home. 814.1m. 46%. #2: Endgame. 858.4m. 44%. #1: The Force Awakens. 936.7m. 40%. Thanks for reading, everyone! -cassie!
  5. I apparently haven't logged into the forums in well over a year. Anyway, I actually went to see a movie in theaters this week, Avatar 2: Electric Boogaloo. And it's the first film that's interested me in box office numbers in a long time, because, well, I don't bet against Cameron. This was the first film I'd seen in IMAX since... honestly, I don't know what the previous one was. Probably Aquaman. Long time members may remember that I'd occasionally do a simple stupid weekly box office predictor. Like, the most basic spreadsheet analysis of what sort of weekly drops from here on out a film would need to hit certain benchmarks. And even if the final totals aren't really important (it's massively successful and we're probably going to see All The Sequels), it's interesting to see where it will end up. So... in week 5 The Way of Water earned a cool $46,475,005, bringing its total to $578,276,353, down just 22.6% from the previous week. That's elevated because of the MLK holiday, but a pretty keen hold regardless. Currently A2 stands at 13th all time. Next up is The Incredibles 2's 608m. This is basically impossible to miss, as 60% weekly drops will get there. 11th is The Last Jedi's 620.2 and 10th is the Avengers' 623.4. It can get there with 52% and 50% drops, respectively. Again, basically impossible. 38% drops is enough to beat Jurassic World's 653.4, but to get past Cameron's own Titanic, it'll need 36% drops. This is still likely. Cameron's known for staying power. Climbing higher than Titanic is harder, though. Avengers: Infinity War probably needs 31% drops, and the Septuple Century mark (along with Black Panther) is at the 27% mark. To break into the top 5 all time will require beating Top Gun: Maverick's 718.7, which is also the mark to become the biggest film of 2022. Either way, 25% drops are in order. The original Avatar (including re-releases) is at 785.2. And that's looking at sub 20% drops, which only happened during the second week, so we're probably not going to see it. The legs on A2 are good, but not that good. No Way Home and Endgame are looking at sub 15% drops, and The Force Awakens is in the minuscule single digit territory, which I didn't even set up my spreadsheet for. If I was going to guess, I'd say something in the 670-720m range is likely. Where it falls relatively to IW, BP, and Maverick will remain to be seen. Might update again next week. See ya! -cass!
  6. On one hand, I'll miss a movie I want to see for about 3-6 months. On the other, I'll risk heart attack, stroke, lung failure, or a whole host of other problems up to and including death. Tough choice.
  7. Not sure what the most ridiculous take in this thread is. Regardless, I'm not going to a theater for any movie until there's a widely available vaccine. Even if it's something I've been looking forward to as much as this.
  8. Need to figure out what movie watching project to do next. Though I think I'll catch up on some TV series in the meanwhile. Currently watching Black Lightning season 2.
  9. A hahaha. I'm done. Three weeks. Twenty movies. And a Twitter thread with all my thoughts.
  10. My MCU rewatch has gotten up to Infinity War. Surprises thus far: I like Winter Soldier more, now. Still not great, but I dug it. Doctor Strange also worked better for me this time around. Negative surprises: None of the Avengers films are good, but some have good moments. The run from GotG to GotG2 is so rough. Only Ant-Man is good in that stretch. Strange is okay. Everything else is bad.
  11. My MCU rewatch has gotten up through AoU. The first three into films remain good. And I liked CAWS more than I expected. But both Avengers films and GotG come across a lot worse this time around.
  12. Um... yes. Say they release it in August, but people are still worried about the virus, so theaters aren't a big destination, it makes far less money than if they wait. Or if not all theaters aren't open again, so same deal. Yes, there are many that have completed shooting that can be finished up while things are in lockdown, but at the same time there are many productions that have been paused. All those films for next year that aren't being made right now will probably not be ready for their original release dates. Basically, the shutdown is delaying everything, so it all shuffles down the line somewhat. Rushing things out of this isn't a good plan in any case. You risk losing a lot more money than by waiting, both from the "people aren't ready for this activity yet" perspective and from the "we still can't finish the stuff we had planned after all this delayed stuff" perspective. Can they (or any other studio) afford to wait? I'd counter that they can't afford not to. When will things get back to normal? After the vaccine is widespread. Which is next spring at the earliest. Everything that's been penciled into a new date is extremely tentative.
  13. On one hand, I'm extremely excited for this movie and want to see it as soon as possible. On the other hand, I don't think theaters should re-open at all this year.
  14. Just shift the entire calendar from mid-March forward to next year.
  15. I wonder how many drive-ins are currently open. Some may not have started their season, and others might just not be opening due to covid.
  16. I guess my new COVID quarantine viewing is to slowly go through the MCU movies on D+. Over the past two nights I watched Iron Man and Iron Man 2. (Is IH streaming anywhere? I could probably go back to it.) It's been years since I saw either, so it was neat to see them again. The first film still clicks along really well. Djawadi's score has several moments that sound a lot like Game of Thrones. IM2 is a more fun than I remembered, but it's still overstuffed and a bit directionless. The number of things that felt extraneous to the film itself is pretty wide. Still, fun.
  17. The move to June made perfect sense, once Star Wars moved. At that time, there was no indication that SW9 was going to underperform. But even with that underperformance, and even if Jumanji hadn't moved, SW9 was still a $500m DOM film, which is a lot of competition. Whereas June was an exceptional date, with relatively weak competition. August feels optimistic, to me. There is little indication that things will be settled by then, especially nationally. The only two effective tools we have at the moment are testing and isolation. The US is lagging badly in the first, and there are many indications that the latter is not going to be universal nor held long enough. However, they can always move it again.
  18. We have five in Washington. Three are currently open, one opens April 3, the fifth is delaying its 2020 opening.
  19. Basically this. What I'm more wondering is if even the information about half capacity is enough to keep people away.
  20. While nothing is playing at capacity, I wonder how much the 50% cap on sales at the major chains is having an effect. In Seattle, it's basically only the AMC and Regals that are open. Most of the independent theaters are closed.
  21. Several franchises have grossed more WW, because they've all had more films. Despicable Me is on top (3.7b, 4 films), then Shrek (3.5b, 5 films). Then Ice Age (3.2b, 5 films), and I believe Toy Story (3b, 4 films). Frozen is the best on a per film basis, though. 2.7b in two films. If there was a third, it would probably be about at 4b in three films, though Minions 2 is going to push the DM franchise to 4.5b, probably.
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