Murgatroyd
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Posts posted by Murgatroyd
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I wish Song of the Sea had a release date. It's supposed to be sometime this fall, but nothing specific is announced, yet.
Likewise. The instant that date is announced, it's going at or near the top of my list. I'm not sure whether it'll be above or below Inside Out.
1: The Boxtrolls
2: Big Hero 6
3: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
4: Guardians of the Galaxy
5: Interstellar
6: Mockingjay Part 1
7: Avengers Age of Ultron
8: Transformers: Age of Extinction
9: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
10: Annie
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I gave in to temptation and did one more.
Note: The graph shows each movie through the end of weekly tracking. Some made 10% or more of their total after that time.
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Well, we can't accuse them of lacking ambition. Sense, yes, but not ambition.
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Just curious, what website do you use to make these graphs?
I get the data from BOM, and do the graphs in Apple's Numbers.
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1: How To Train Your Dragon 2
2: The Boxtrolls
3: Big Hero 6
4: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
5: Guardians of the Galaxy
6: Interstellar
7: Mockingjay Part 1
8: Avengers Age of Ultron
9: Transformers: Age of Extinction
10: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
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Great work Murgatroyd. Looks like a lot of work went into this. It'd be cool if someone could do this for other past years as well.
That "someone" is not likely to be me, unless I'm really bored some day. Making a complete year's graph is a long and tedious process, which involves copying or transcribing over a thousand four-to-nine-digit numbers. It's much easier to make one going forward, which just requires doing a few numbers once a week.
Speaking of which, here's 2014 through last Thursday:
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I was not quite 12 at the time, and I was vaguely aware that the movie existed. Movies, especially in theaters, were not a part of my life at the time. I'm pretty sure that's the same year I read the book and mostly enjoyed it, though even back then I was pretty sure that wasn't what chaos theory was really about.
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A while back, inspired by some of my work graphing Frozen's run, I started a larger project. The idea was to put every major movie of last year on a single graph, and see what it looked like. For ease of gathering the data, I defined "major movie" as any movie which was in 3000 or more theaters at any point in its run. A few high-grossing movies did not meet that threshold, and they are not on the graph, but overall it seems to have worked out well. Now that we're five months into 2014, and (with one exception) the major movies of 2013 have closed, it's time to present the results.
Without further ado...
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Weekday numbers were underestimated slightly.1.60m Mon0.60m Tue1.20m WedEstimate: $3.4MActual is $3.6M:ScreenDaily reports $837.2M by WednesdaySince Deadline reported that Disney updated its as-of-Sunday total from $205.9M to $207.5M, then the total on BOM should go from $832M to $833.6M. This means that the movie made 837.2 - 833.6 = $3.6M on these 3 days. So the weekend drop might not be as big as the estimated weekday drops previously suggested.
Actual is ~351,120,000 yen, or $3.43M.
Japanese articles on passing Titanic give a total as of Wednesday of 21,582,200,000. The total as of Sunday was 21,231,081,650.
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A question has occurred to me:
Has any movie, anywhere, ever, been #1 in a country for its entire theatrical run?
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Now onto more happy topics, like Murgatroyd's charts. Those are always great to see each week. Can we expect them soon?
It just keeps going, and going, and going...
Even without the video release, beating SA wouldn't be certain. With it, I'm confident in saying "not happening".
Six more weeks. 25B is virtually certain. How much it'll get beyond that is anyone's guess.
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At this point I consider Spirited Away's run tainted since Frozen will be having its legs cut off early by video release. There is no such thing as competition for a record when you kneecap anyone before they can get close to you.
Remember, the protectionist speculation is, as far as we know, just speculation. Kneecapping your opponent is one thing, but it's something else entirely when your opponent draws a gun, takes careful aim at their own foot, and pulls the trigger.
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I just ran across some interesting statistics in a Japanese article.
On May 12, there was a survey of 2000 men and women between the ages of 10 and 60. 17.5% said they had seen Frozen. An additional 13.7% said they hadn't yet, but intended to.
Now, to combine that with other numbers we know. As of May 11, Frozen had made 17.08 billion yen. If we apply the ~1.78 multiplier implied by the above survey, we get an expected total of just over 30.4 billion yen - within a rounding error of Spirited Away's final gross.
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1: How To Train Your Dragon 2
2: The Boxtrolls
3: Big Hero 6
4: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
5: Guardians of the Galaxy
6: Interstellar
7: Mockingjay Part 1
8: Avengers Age of Ultron
9: Transformers: Age of Extinction
10: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
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Message sent.
It has come to my attention that the DVD/Blu-Ray for Frozen will be released in Japan on July 16. That is much too soon.
To quote one of your studio's famous characters: "Master! I don't think you quite realize what you've got here!"
http://i57.tinypic.com/347y4wp.png
The blue line in the graph is Frozen. Green is the current all-time record-holder at the Japanese box office, and the former record-holder for most of the weekends shown. If this trend continues, the amount Disney stands to lose from the premature video release is greater than the total expected take from video sales, not to mention the opportunity cost of missing out on the promotional value of such phrases as "the most popular movie in Japanese history."
Here's the linked graph:
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It was very much not the movie I expected it to be. Leaving expectations aside and considering it for what it is, I'd say it's decent, but far from great. The conclusion in particular would have benefited from either more drafts or less. B-
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24x multiplier and still making more than OW every weekend. Is there any competition coming up there that we should worry about?
Yes, there is. It's the same competition that destroyed it at the US box office: itself, on home video. July 16.
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Given the DVD release date, my projections put the final gross somewhere in the 25-27B yen range.
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Did you see the huge drops DH2 had after its first weekend? Family movies are known for their legs, but Pooh didn't have any.
Good legs depend on an initial audience to spread the word of mouth. Opening against DH2, Pooh didn't have that audience.
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Actuals are out, so...
It continues to run about 2 weeks behind SA. Catching up may be possible, but it's far from certain.
Week 13 will be critical in determining its chances of winning.
The direct competition, such as it is (or isn't):
And, just for fun...
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1: How To Train Your Dragon 2
2: The Boxtrolls
3: Maleficent
4: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
5: Big Hero 6
6: Guardians of the Galaxy
7: Interstellar
8: Mockingjay Part 1
9: Avengers Age of Ultron
10: Transformers: Age of Extinction
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Gone with the Wind vs. The Sixth Sense
Star Wars vs. The Dark Knight Rises
The Sound of Music vs. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial vs. Back to the Future
Titanic vs. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
The Ten Commandments vs. The Passion of the Christ
Jaws vs. Animal House
Doctor Zhivago vs. The Greatest Show on Earth
The Exorcist vs. My Fair Lady
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs vs. Spider-Man 2
101 Dalmatians vs. The Towering Inferno
The Empire Strikes Back vs. Finding Nemo -- by far the hardest choice of the round
Ben-Hur vs. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Avatar vs. The Bells of St. Mary's
Return of the Jedi vs. Batman (1989)
Jurassic Park vs. Blazing Saddles
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace vs. Bambi
The Lion King vs. Around the World in 80 Days
The Sting vs. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Raiders of the Lost Ark vs. The Robe
The Graduate vs. American Graffiti
Fantasia vs. Airport
The Godfather vs. Goldfinger
Forrest Gump vs. Beverly Hills Cop
Mary Poppins vs. Cleopatra
Grease vs. Pinocchio
The Avengers vs. Home Alone
Thunderball vs. Independence Day
The Dark Knight vs. Spider-Man
The Jungle Book vs. Love Story
Sleeping Beauty vs. Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Shrek 2 vs. Ghostbusters
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Now that I've seen the Interstellar trailer, it's on my list. There's also another movie that'll jump straight to the top of the list as soon as a qualifying release date is announced.
1: How To Train Your Dragon 2
2: The Boxtrolls
3: Maleficent
4: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
5: Big Hero 6
6: Guardians of the Galaxy
7: Interstellar
8: Mockingjay Part 1
9: Avengers Age of Ultron
10: Transformers: Age of Extinction
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Blue Spirited Away, Red Frozen. I don't know where the spike for SA comes from for week nine. There's a jump in US dollars too, but it isn't nearly as big. On the other hand, Obon jump is much larger in USD.
Spirited Away dollar weeks:
As best I can tell, the Week 9 spike for SA comes from an error in the data combining two weeks into one. I've adjusted it in my graphs.
Speaking of which, now that I have actuals, it's that time again.
This is just getting ridiculous.
I can see it coming close to SA, but beating it is highly unlikely.
And a cleaner version of that one, with the only comparison that really matters any more:
Total gross is proportional to the area under the line. If it's still going strong in Week 13, I may have to revise my opinion about SA.
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A Year At A Glance | 2015 complete; 2016 added 6/24/16
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Weekly update: