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Murgatroyd

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    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    :blink: Dafuq?

    So you think that golden week did not really burn off all that much interest in Frozen? It just put a little dent into last WE gross?

     

    Damn, if those estimates hold my club might even succeed if Godzilla AND Xmen break out big time DOM :P

     

    For a heavily WOM-driven movie with broad appeal, the proper metaphor for a week with lots of views isn't "burning off interest".  It's "stoking the flames".

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    The weekends are 14-16%, The 15% average accounts for small drops and potentially larger drops.(30%) combined. The weeks increase because of summer. Yes I threw in a bump at beginning of summer and Obon. I think there will be a few flat weekends in there as well and make the forward numbers swell.I don't know about 50% decreases happening. It should do that this weekend if it is ever going to do it. Didnt you say we were going to have steep drops 5 weeks ago because of blah :rant: blah. Stop reading corpse, youre losing too much weight. Also it'll probably stay in theaters until December making 1-2m per week in the fall.your 245m is :locked::locked2: :locked:Thats a triple lock also known as The Ray Subers guarantee.

     

    Looking at the other top animated movies that we have numbers for, 50% week-to-week drops are unheard-of except at the very end of the run.  25-35% drops, on the other hand, are fairly common.

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Murgatroyd

    And now, from the 20/20 hindsight department, here are all of Corpse's predictions about Frozen's final total.

     

    3/15

    Quote

    The 3D share will be lower than Monsters University, so I think beating its opening weekend of 847 million ($8.2 million) will be tough, but regardless, an opening weekend of ¥800 million ($8 million) is actually possible. And legs during the Spring don't compare to Summer/Winter, but they can still approach a multiplier of 10 (Wreck-It Ralph had a x8.8 last March).

     

    So I'd say, if the opening is around ¥800 million ($8 million), it'll be targeting a ¥7-8 billion ($70/80 million) total. Excluding Pixar, that would be by far the highest-grossing Disney animation release beating Dinosaur's long-standing record of ¥4.9 billion.

     

     

    Quote

    An opening of ~$8 million should result in:

     

    $60/65 million: the floor or minimum goal (a lot will have to go wrong here; the plagiarism claims will have to go wide-scale, and I doubt they will).

    $70/75 million: the expected target (typical legs for a well-received film before holidays).

    $80/85 million: the ceiling or greatly exceeding expectations (it's very, very rare to see multipliers reach or exceed 10 outside of July/Dec.)

     

     

     

    3/16

    Quote

    Its target total is ¥7 billion ($70 million) and 5 million admissions based on the estimated opening.

    Quote

    The Spring box-office, while lucrative, isn't as strong as the Summer or Winter, but it is capable of great legs and I wouldn't be surprised if Frozen comes close to a multiplier of 10. Wreck-It Ralph had a 8.8 multiplier last March as a recent example. So, Frozen should be on track for ¥7 billion ($70 million), or possibly as much as ¥8 billion ($80 million). Which will crush Dinosaur's ¥4.9 billion as the highest-grossing Walt Disney Animation release.

     

    3/23

    Quote

    Frozen.... pretty unreal. It's going to be tracking ahead of Toy Story 3 and Monsters University for awhile, and depending on the lead it gains before those two films received their Summer/Obon Festival boosts, it could end up challenging them. 

     

    ¥8 billion ($80 million) looks more than likely now; ¥9 billion ($90 million) is doable; and ¥10 billion+ ($100 million+) will be difficult, but there is a chance.

     

    3/24

    Quote

    Eventually it should lose its momentum once Spring Break is over, allowing the films it's tracking ahead of currently to catch up since their holidays boosts came later in their runs. But if it keeps up this pace... ¥10 billion ($100 million), while already a possibility, becomes more likely. 

     

    3/25

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    It won't be able to keep these numbers up after the first week of April, and the first couple weeks in April will decide where it's really heading.

     

    3/30

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    It will begin to slow down starting this upcoming weekend, post-Spring Break, but it will already have accumulated a massive sum that ¥10 billion (~$100 million) is more than likely in reach.

    Quote

    It only took Frozen 16/17 days to become Walt Disney's highest-grossing animated film of all-time, but Dinosaur held that record for nearly 14 years!

     

    Frozen will end up more than doubling Dinosaur's total.

     

    3/31

    Quote

    Spring Break is still going on, so it's probably going to see another set of weekdays over ¥1 billion ($10 million+), but from there it really should start to slow down. But it'll be around ¥7 billion ($70 million) after four weeks in release anyway, so it'll have to almost collapse to miss ¥10 billion ($100 million), and will probably become the highest-grossing imported animated film of all-time (needs to beat Finding Nemo's ¥11 billion)... Crazy.

    Quote

    Frozen will have little trouble entering the Top 10 and will end up challenging Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 at its current pace. It also has a small chance at The Wind Rises and breaking up Miyazaki's Top 5 if it doesn't fall too hard post-Spring Break, but ¥12 billion+ will be quite difficult.

     

    4/4

    Quote

    Frozen will have little trouble entering the Top 10 and will end up challenging Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 at its current pace. It also has a small chance at The Wind Rises and breaking up Miyazaki's Top 5 if it doesn't fall too hard post-Spring Break, but ¥12 billion+ will be quite difficult.

     

    4/5

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    It may honestly beat Avatar (admissions is more than 50% likely now I believe), and become Hollywood's biggest film since Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 12 years ago.

    Quote

    In fact, I think Frozen could end up the top-grossing film for the current decade (2010-2019). Literally the only films that it'll be trailing behind after four weeks will be Spirited Away, Howl's Moving Castle, the first two Harry Potter films, and maybe Ponyo (which it has been tracking closely with). And they're all in the Top 10 films of all-time.

     

    4/12

    Quote

    If it can survive all the upcoming competition (screen/showtimes are the biggest issue), May is weak enough again this year that it could develop strong late legs and perhaps find a way to reach ¥15 billion+ ($150 million).

     

    4/14

    Quote

    Its 31-day cume is now ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million) with 7.56 million admissions. It climbed 22 spots on the all-time grossing films chart, and now ranks 37th after just 5 weeks. ¥12 billion ($120 million) is locked up, making it the highest-grossing imported animated film ever ahead of Finding Nemo's ¥11.0 billion, and ¥13 billion ($130 million) is looking likely. We'll see where it goes from there.

     

     

    4/20

    Quote

    It's not doing over $244 million. It's tracking over 20% behind Spirited Away after 6 weeks despite its weekend business being so strong each week. Spirited Away's weekends are still bigger, and its weekdays are much, much bigger. It'll also still be tracking behind Howl's Moving Castle and Ponyo after 6 weeks, and the former hasn't had any holiday support yet.

     

    It doesn't have the weekday support, which is more important than weekends. It'll require a gross of at least ¥25 billion, more than double what its 8 week total will probably be.

    Quote

    Frozen is having a monstrous run and could potentially become the biggest film this decade. It's likely going to exceed ¥15 billion ($150 million), could reach ¥16/17 billion ($160/170 million), and that'll be very difficult for anything currently on the horizon to beat.

     

    4/21

    Quote

    Frozen becomes the 28th film to reach the ¥10 billion milestone at the box-office, as well as the seventh-fastest to reach the mark. At this pace, it'll crack the Top 10 All-Time in early May and will likely exceed a gross of ¥15 billion ($150 million) in the process. 

     

    4/25

    Quote

    Frozen has locked up a 7th-week on top as it's pretty far ahead of everything else so far this morning and when looking at its afternoon and evening ticket sales. Disney and whoever else that was responsible for releasing the sing-a-long and 3D dubbed version this weekend, right before Golden Week begins, too, was genius. If it manages a 6th-consecutive week grossing over 800 million ($8 million)... we'll be discussing the potential for ¥20 billion ($200 million), making it only the fifth film to ever reach that milestone (Spirited Away > Titanic > Howl's Moving Castle > Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone).

     

    4/26

    Quote

    Also, calling Frozen by "Frozatar" is a big understatement. It's been tracking 20-25% ahead of Avatar for the past month and will out-gross it in a couple weeks, plus it'll have sold more tickets in a just matter of days (Tuesday/Wednesday most likely). It looks like it's going to become the second or third biggest imported release ever, behind just Titanic and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, and it might even challenge the latter. Beating both of them in admissions actually looks possible, too. I've been hesitant on calling ¥20 billion (~$200 million) but... it's become more likely than not.

     

    4/30

    Quote

    Frozen could potentially gross more than Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 combined, which were the Top 2 highest-grossing imported animated films. 

     

    5/3

    Quote

    Very huge for Frozen. Very, very, very huge. This is its biggest mid-day Saturday admission figure to date, and this is definitely going to be its biggest Saturday, and probably weekend as well. It's going to blow the biggest 8th weekend record out of the water by a huge margin. Nothing has had a performance even close to this in over a decade, and it's becoming a serious contender for $200 million+.

     

    5/4

    Quote

    Bye-bye to The Last Samurai. It was in the Top 10 for eleven years, but Frozen had no trouble knocking it out this past weekend. And Frozen is about a ¥1 billion away now from Ponyo and Avatar, which it'll more than likely surpass before next weekend. And beating Harry Potter 2 and Bayside Shakedown 2 is practically a lock now as well.

     

    5/5

    Quote

    Frozen is probably going to pass Titanic. [in USD]

     

     

    It's just like reading back through the predictions for the domestic run. One week's optimistic projection is the next week's likelihood, and is passed in less than a month. Of course, like the domestic run, predictions will eventually catch up with reality.

    • Like 10

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    I found a few japanese sources :

     

    http://www.nikkansports.com/entertainment/news/p-et-tp1-20140504-1295499.html

    http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20140504-00000011-nksports-ent

     

    This is the key sentence :

     

    米アニメ映画「アナと雪の女王」の今月１日時点での日本国内での興収が、１３３億円に達したことが３日、分かった。

     

    Which is basically saying it has passed the 13.3 billion yen mark. I don't see friday being mentioned though.

     

     

    I don't think it includes Friday. Throwing that into google translate it says:"The 3rd, I found that the box-office in Japan for the 1st time this month of "The Snow Queen and Ana" U.S. animated film has reached to 13.3 billion yen. "So on Saturday whoever wrote this found out that by the first (a Thursday), it had passed 13.3b.

     

    Don't trust Google Translate.

     

    "On the 3rd, I learned that as of the first of this month, the gross of the American animated film "Anna and the Snow Queen" passed 13.3 billion yen."

    • Like 1

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    In late Spring of 2005, nearing the end of Howl's run, Toho expanded the film and heavily promoted it for the Summer.  If you own the DVD, the actual promotional trailer talking about the expansion for the Summer is there with the tagline  "14 million people have seen the film, and here's your last chance to see Howl and Sophie's love story on the big screen again".  Along those lines anyway.  The expansion boosted it by ¥2.4 billion (1.5 million admissions), from ¥19.6 billion (14 million admissions) to ¥22.0 billion (15.5 million admissions).  If you want another source, here: http://www.tohokingdom.com/anime/howls_moving_castle.htm#bo

     

    So, pretty much the same as what Disney did with The Lion King (big business through the summer, stayed in a few theaters through the fall, and a big expansion at Thanksgiving).  That makes sense, and explains a lot.

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    These Mojo numbers aren't accurate. Howl's made more than that. Also, Avatar made more than $200M in China. And if you add the Titanic 3D re-release, Titanic also made about $200 million in China.

    Actually, it's pretty close.  The most reliable-looking number I've found for Howl is ¥19.6B.  During its run, the exchange rate was generally between 103-105 yen to the dollar.  That gives a dollar amount of $186-191M.

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