Murgatroyd
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Posts posted by Murgatroyd
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I'd like to see one crazy bastard go higher than me at least once! Ive been under more than I've been over.
Sure, why not? I'll put it as far above SB as SB was above normal.
29.74
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The Avengers vs. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Frozen vs. The Dark Knight
How the hell is Avengers getting so much love? It was pretty formulaic and boring upon re-watch IMO.
Formulaic? Yes, but it made the formula work. Plus, when it comes to LotR, I'm a book purist. Even the best possible adaptation (which these movies may well have been) is lacking in comparison.
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Frozen in Japan will surpass total Dom
incredible legs!!…No.
Uh oh. Somebody finally mentioned DOM. I've been thinking that would come up at some point :PIt is within the realm of possiblity. There is a precedent.
Really?
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Might be eye-opening to see a graph of the total number of topic posts with respect to the number of days it's existed...
Will page count over time do?
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Even if it can't beat Spirited Away's total, what would Frozen have to earn to beat SA's OW multiplier? Isn't that a lower target? Or no?
¥23.4B
At the current exchange rate, that's just under $230M, which coincidentally is very close to Spirited Away's ¥30.4B at 2001-2002 exchange rates.
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Unless the world ends before next Sunday, beating The Wind Rises is a done deal. Ponyo is very likely, and barring a post-Golden Week crash, Howl seems more likely than not. Spirited Away is not happening.
*If you're comparing these to my previous graphs, note that I've corrected a few errors in my data for Howl and Spirited Away.
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ty big help. I just edited this in above and I see it here. How did it do 2500m for week 10 with just a 500m weekend? 250m sat/sun and 400m weekdays in early October?
Good question. My weekly numbers are calculated from the cumulative numbers in Corpse's post here. I suspect he may have missed a week - splitting that into e.g. 1220 and 1200 would be much more plausible.
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cool. I was going to ask you if you had weekend numbers and could plot them. Full weeks are hard to compare with holiday and summer impact. I think we can see the legs comparison w just weekends. Frozen is going to curl right up thru SA/green, fade above it and play catch up on the total. Could you post the weekend/week numbers, i want to put them in my table, cant see precisely on the chart. Thxi could see how SA looks like it just pulled away on the cum and insurmountable. But frozen is about to have that same spike too. Could be 25m+ as well.
I hope the formatting on this works.
(All numbers in million ¥)
Weekend-Week
1001-------1001
975--------3239
890--------2980
940--------3530
890--------2510
900--------1640
685--------2230
695--------1520
650--------1330
510--------2420
435--------1200
395--------800
265--------490
270--------480
330--------600
305--------590
195--------480
185--------360
255--------440
150--------340
115--------220
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avatar in part was a 3d phenom. It lost most its screen to AIW in march another, in part 3d phenom. First two 3d movies out of the gate and 3d became a big success until people realized they got instant ADD.
There was anticipation with the Miyazaki's monster. A little front loaded for japan and as I said had steady declines from the beginning. We need to see the SA weekends. Anyone have them? No movie has held flat like this in a long time. Take a look at ET on bom. Frozen is best mirroring that right now and it didn't drop later on. I say this runs like that, percentage drop wise. Im going to pull ponyo out of the showdown, that fish is fried. I want to put SA and et in
They're right here on my graph. Green line.
He is obviously a miyazaki fan and a frozen hater. Keeps underpredicting like an alcohol in denial, "I only had two drinks". He admitted yesterday that he was being a downer. He is looking glass half full. When you do that you see emptiness.
those movies were in December and summer. 6m is a great midweek outside of those times. The last two midweeks were 73% of the forward weekend. If the weekend dropped like HMC they would be 90-100% of the weekend. Once HMC/Ponyo were out of holiday/summer their midweeks were 60-100%, again 100% was reached because the forward weekend dropped significantly. This is why I dont watch the news. Politicians make up this shit too.
If frozen was in summer it would be having 15m-20m midweeks considering what it did SB. Kicking the shit out of ponyo. I
"Statistics dont lie, statisticians do" mark twain
Here's why I don't think Frozen has a snowball's chance in hell of beating Spirited Away:
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Can you do everyone a favor and plot projected gross so they can see how it tracks spirited away. Seeing this weekend is flat again, and 3d dubbed and holiday are coming, it should go like this.
10.7b yen for this sunday total. Then...
12.3b
14.5b
16.3b
17.4b
18.4b
thx. Blame me if anyone gives you shit.
Sure.
And one I haven't posted before (weekly grosses as a line graph):
Overall, it looks optimistic but quite plausible.
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Btw. I watched frozen. Not generally my cup of tea but I enjoyed it. I've watched wolf of wall st twice, Goodfellas revisited. My tea.I downloaded Spirited Away. They did a great job with the dub. Why only 10m in the US?
Because Disney didn't even try to promote it until after the Best Animated Feature win, and even then, they didn't do much.
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okay I just figured out the disappointment thing. I knew parenting change back in the 80's with all the psychology books that people read and this is a fine example.[rant omitted]
"Kids these days are so spoiled, don't know how rough we had it, uphill both ways, etc."
I'm pretty sure this has been said by every single generation since at least the Paleolithic.
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Another week, another round of graph updates.
Beating TWR is now virtually certain. Ponyo is still about as likely as not, and Howl is unlikely. Even the most optimistic extrapolation doesn't put it near Spirited Away.
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So, Frozen's 5th weekend was an increase from its 4th? It's madness I tell you, madness!
That must be due to exchange rate fluctuations. In yen, it was down 1.02%.
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the other side of the coin is if you predict $1 you can never be more than 100% off but I could be 400% over..
I guess if you have a competion you have to make rules and stick by them
closest you can get without going over. Like price is right
% of your prediction. Like BOM Derby. If your not within 25% no one should win though
% off the reported number.
So maybe we should just say closest dollar number.
I propose max(prediction, actual)/min(prediction, actual), where a lower number, i.e. closer to 1, is better. This way, if the actual value is 100, predictions of 50 and 200 (both off by a factor of 2) are equally bad.
Here are my best- and worst-case projections for the next few weeks:
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MU's 4th weekend was down 60% from the first already. It wasn't holding still in summer. Week 7 was the end of summer and midweek sales evaporated and the big weekend decline occurred. Frozen has golden week for week 8 and 9. Could be at 135-140m by the end of GW.TS 3 also had a quick death when summer was over. If it were to drop like them, it would have dropped 30% this past weekend and not be down just 18% today from the first wed. We are dealing with different animal.
Yes, we appear to be dealing with a different animal here. However, extrapolations are never certain. That's why I'm putting the percent probability of a steep decline in low single digits, not at zero.
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you do realize 150m is can't miss now. 100%
A steep fall is still theoretically possible. Extremely unlikely, but not impossible.
MU-level holds from here out put it at ¥14.1B.
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Anyone who thinks beating TWR is only likely needs to go back to grade school and study mathematics. 150m is a lock. 200m is likely. I love the crazy comments. Most people said 75m at best. You realize any "crazy" person that said 230m is going to be a closer than the silly people that came up with that foolish number.
All right, I may have used the wrong descriptor. Using the IPCC's definitions, I would currently classify it as "extremely likely" (p>0.95) rather than "very likely" (p>0.90). If next week's numbers are what I expect, I'll probably upgrade it to "virtually certain" (p>0.99). I would also classify Ponyo as "about as likely as not" (0.33<p<0.66) and Howl as "very unlikely" ( p<0.10). Also note that I'm doing all comparisons in yen, not dollars.
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Another week, another set of graph updates.
And, a new one, with weekly progress:
Overall, it looks like beating TWR is very likely, Ponyo is quite possible, and even Howl isn't completely out of the question. Anyone who thinks it has a chance at Spirited Away should have their head examined.
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Call me crazy but I am sticking with $230m total. The Spirited Away total in dollars unadjusted.
You're crazy.
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I've got graph updates based on Corpse's weekend estimates.
So far, Frozen is tracking fairly close to Ponyo. That should continue for about one more week, then it'll fall behind when its post-Spring Break slump hits at the same point where Ponyo had a holiday boost. Overall, I see it finishing somewhere between Finding Nemo and Ponyo.
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Not just no, but hell no.
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The increase is all tax? Or part admission? If there was already a 5% tax and raised to 8%, thats just a 300yen increase.
Part admission. The tax increase alone would take an adult ticket from ¥1800 to about ¥1851; the theaters are also increasing their pre-tax price from ¥1714 to ¥1759 to bring the final amount to a nice round number.
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I've got a couple of graphs showing how Frozen compares to most of the top-grossing animated movies in Japanese history.
From what little data we have so far, it looks like Frozen is on track to fit somewhere in this elite company. Of course, as any mathematician worth their salt knows, extrapolating a nonlinear trend from two points is usually unwise.
*Notes*
Thanks to Corpse at KJ for most of the numbers that went into this.
Princess Mononoke was omitted because I couldn't get weekend numbers.
Monsters University's numbers are approximate based on BOM's dollar figures.
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incredible legs!!
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
Posted
According to the Motion Picture Producers Association of Japan, it was 20.00B.
I also suspect that the Spirited Away numbers are missing a week.