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Cynosure

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About Cynosure

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  1. You can have a partial quarantine. Encourage the elderly and those with underlying conditions to remain quarantined, but allow the majority of the population who remain unaffected by this to continue on living and develop immunity. To punish the entire population because a small % of the population could die is insane. If to continue living normally I have to put off seeing my grandmother for a year, that's fine with me.
  2. But the flu kills thousand each years. If the coronavirus kills 2 or 3 times as many people as the flu, it will be sad, but hardly worth stopping the world over.
  3. In France, my workplace has put us on forced paid leave. I keep going out despite the lockdown (printed 3 authorizations yesterday alone : groceries, running x 2) and nothing has happened. I don't see why the government should be allowed to prevent me from going where I please. I want to remind people that there are probably 10 times as many cases in the wild compared to the official numbers, so the morality rate is probably around 0,3%. It's ridiculous how people are willing to accept totalitarian-like measures just because of fear and media propaganda. I must say I do enjoy the empty streets.
  4. Humans can't control everything. There have been epidemics since the dawn of humanity and there will continue to be. It's actually a good opportunity for some modesty and introspection.
  5. I'm not discarding them. My parents are boomers. I would be very sad to see them die. I would also be very sad to see them die of heart failure, whatever type of cancer, the flu, or God knows what else. The coronavirus is just another illness to add to the list. On the other hand a disease killing the youth would be much more dramatic in that they are virtually unaffected by other common illnesses, or when they are they don't die. With aging the likelihood of death increases and it's just something we have to accept.
  6. Sure, but the 75-100M people that will get it in the US most likely include the asymptomatic cases. Therefore you have to use the mortality rate including asymptomatic cases.
  7. Hence why I mentioned the "true mortality rate". Because it includes asymptomatic cases.
  8. It won't be a 1,5% mortality rate. Current mortality rates are overestimated due to the fact that many mild cases are not being tested. South-Korea has a mortality rate of 0,6% and even that's probably overestimated. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca Going with the figures from this article the real mortality rate is probably between 0,025% and 0,14%. That means between 18k and 140k deaths in the US if 75-100M do indeed catch it. Bad, but hardly worth stopping the world over.
  9. Panic causes people to take irrational decisions. For instance people who mass buy soap or toilet paper. To reduce the spread of the epidemic, you need everyone to have some soap available to wash their hands, not 10% of the population hogging all the soap in their homes.
  10. Looking at raw numbers is meaningless. Of course the number of cases will increase. That's a tautology. Only the pace of growth matters. Once the pace of growth slows downs, it means the epidemic has peaked.
  11. The amount of cases increased about 4% both on March 9 and on March 10, so we aren't seeing it "continue to accelerate globally". We'll see what March 11 offers but as of now its growth pace is stable.
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