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Cynosure

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Everything posted by Cynosure

  1. You can have a partial quarantine. Encourage the elderly and those with underlying conditions to remain quarantined, but allow the majority of the population who remain unaffected by this to continue on living and develop immunity. To punish the entire population because a small % of the population could die is insane. If to continue living normally I have to put off seeing my grandmother for a year, that's fine with me.
  2. But the flu kills thousand each years. If the coronavirus kills 2 or 3 times as many people as the flu, it will be sad, but hardly worth stopping the world over.
  3. In France, my workplace has put us on forced paid leave. I keep going out despite the lockdown (printed 3 authorizations yesterday alone : groceries, running x 2) and nothing has happened. I don't see why the government should be allowed to prevent me from going where I please. I want to remind people that there are probably 10 times as many cases in the wild compared to the official numbers, so the morality rate is probably around 0,3%. It's ridiculous how people are willing to accept totalitarian-like measures just because of fear and media propaganda. I must say I do enjoy the empty streets.
  4. Humans can't control everything. There have been epidemics since the dawn of humanity and there will continue to be. It's actually a good opportunity for some modesty and introspection.
  5. I'm not discarding them. My parents are boomers. I would be very sad to see them die. I would also be very sad to see them die of heart failure, whatever type of cancer, the flu, or God knows what else. The coronavirus is just another illness to add to the list. On the other hand a disease killing the youth would be much more dramatic in that they are virtually unaffected by other common illnesses, or when they are they don't die. With aging the likelihood of death increases and it's just something we have to accept.
  6. Sure, but the 75-100M people that will get it in the US most likely include the asymptomatic cases. Therefore you have to use the mortality rate including asymptomatic cases.
  7. Hence why I mentioned the "true mortality rate". Because it includes asymptomatic cases.
  8. It won't be a 1,5% mortality rate. Current mortality rates are overestimated due to the fact that many mild cases are not being tested. South-Korea has a mortality rate of 0,6% and even that's probably overestimated. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca Going with the figures from this article the real mortality rate is probably between 0,025% and 0,14%. That means between 18k and 140k deaths in the US if 75-100M do indeed catch it. Bad, but hardly worth stopping the world over.
  9. Panic causes people to take irrational decisions. For instance people who mass buy soap or toilet paper. To reduce the spread of the epidemic, you need everyone to have some soap available to wash their hands, not 10% of the population hogging all the soap in their homes.
  10. Looking at raw numbers is meaningless. Of course the number of cases will increase. That's a tautology. Only the pace of growth matters. Once the pace of growth slows downs, it means the epidemic has peaked.
  11. The amount of cases increased about 4% both on March 9 and on March 10, so we aren't seeing it "continue to accelerate globally". We'll see what March 11 offers but as of now its growth pace is stable.
  12. Most of them are old. The average death age in Italy is 81. 90% of people who died in Italy yesterday were over 70, 60% over 80 (and zero below 50). It's never pleasant to lose a loved one, but losing the elderly whether it's the coronavirus, a heart failure, cancer, or something else is the circle of life.
  13. I don't like Trump but you really need to calm down with the fear-mongering. We're at 4 500 or so deaths, that's 0,45% of 1M, never mind "millions of people", and the coronavirus has already peaked in several countries.
  14. Oh, damn. Well I guess it will still take a few days until the quarantine starts reducing the pace of the number of new cases.
  15. The increase in the number of new cases has slowed down. Italy is probably currently facing the peak.
  16. I know. But here in France for instance we have left-wing labor unions complaining about the government restricting the right to assembly. You would never see that in South-Korea or Japan.
  17. Political decisions are much less ideologically driven in East-Asian countries compared to European countries.
  18. Imo in the long run Europe and the US will end up having more cases and probably more deaths, albeit not that many in the grand scheme of things, than China. For one and as unpleasant as it is, a dictatorship is more efficient at dealing with an epidemic outbreak, which even the Wall Street Journal recognized, and secondly there is a sense of collective civic duty in Chinese culture that heavily contrasts with the overzealous individualism of Western culture.
  19. Just so people know, particulates kill about 8.8 million people each year, including nearly half a million in Europe alone. By decreasing air pollution significantly in regions like China, the coronavirus might actually end up saving more lives than it takes.
  20. Corpse answered that : Frozen II should be at ¥5.8/5.9 billion ($53/54 million) after Sunday. Its third weekend looks headed for a 30% or so decline (right around ¥1 billion), which is fine considering how strong its second weekend was, and expected given last Sunday was a national discount ticket day. There's not really a "Winter Break/Holiday" in Japan. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day begin what's simply called "New Year Week", where all schools and business are closed from January 1st-3rd (known as the "Bank Holidays"). The last few days (last couple in December) leading up to New Year's Day tend to be a little stronger than normal, but not of holiday strength. Still, the week is one of the three strongest for the box-office in the market. For 2020, that means Wednesday-Friday (Jan. 01-03) will be very strong, especially Wednesday, and will probably double or even triple the neighboring weekend grosses. The following weekend (Jan. 04-05) will also be quite strong. January 6th onward will be back to normal.
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