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Cynosure

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  1. A bit of an anecdote but Detective Conan recently became the third anime series to top $1 billion in gross after Doraemon and Pokemon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_anime_films#Highest-grossing_anime_film_franchises_and_film_series I expect Dragon Ball to join them in a few years. One Piece maybe as well in a very long time. Other series perhaps in the next century.
  2. It has beaten TS4's Saturday. Obviously its Sunday won't be nearly as good, but all the movies above and including TS4 opened above 1 billion yen, so I'd say its chances are looking pretty decent.
  3. BATB had Emma Watson who is huge in Japan thanks to the Harry Potter franchise. Not to mention the movie is more in line with Japan's traditional tastes (pretty looking princess, high appeal to women). I don't think TLK will do too bad, but I see it finishing below both Aladdin and BATB in the $50-60 territory or so.
  4. Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Sunday Ticket Sales10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL62,188 - Toy Story 4Previous Major Openers (Sunday Results) [2015-]:63,218 > 100,404 > 146,337 > 189,450 > 244,143 > 286,739 > 328,954 > 352,722 > 390,334 > 410,796 > 415,451 - Detective Conan 23 47,152 > x77,663 > 117,569 > 150,789 > 196,456 > 222,491 > 257,516 > 290,708 > 332,949 > 357,826 > 357,985 - Detective Conan 22 44,969 > x79,673 > 106,581 > 141,399 > 176,107 > 202,263 > 237,924 > 263,064 > 301,101 > 328,708 > 328,862 - Detective Conan 21 43,544 > x56,945 > x94,864 > 121,147 > 137,712 > 176,895 > 211,513 > 233,287 > 266,175 > 310,627 > 316,396 - Jurassic World 2 68,068 > 121,410 > 140,214 > 175,159 > 212,303 > 239,912 > 275,001 > 284,050 > 301,372 > 303,414 > 303,414 - Yo-Kai Watch 2 48,646 > x66,915 > 109,572 > 132,453 > 146,053 > 201,672 > 223,094 > 237,267 > 266,239 > 285,738 > 288,800 - Code Blue 41,258 > x53,651 > 101,827 > 123,213 > 137,288 > 182,858 > 209,637 > 218,717 > 253,910 > 286,657 > 287,736 - Aladdin 41,505 > x60,776 > x92,279 > 118,040 > 147,909 > 183,527 > 203,203 > 226,105 > 255,277 > 282,340 > 282,386 - Detective Conan 20 58,188 > x70,602 > x85,503 > 130,437 > 138,471 > 165,576 > 206,251 > 215,799 > 245,092 > 274,998 > 275,491 - Star Wars VII 44,544 > x61,806 > x95,031 > 115,926 > 135,456 > 172,663 > 187,607 > 203,548 > 251,431 > 263,949 > 264,078 - Star Wars VIII 45,987 > x56,944 > x75,411 > x89,067 > 121,228 > 135,686 > 165,877 > 198,605 > 234,747 > 261,046 > 263,634 - Beauty and the Beast 49,893 > x78,100 > 116,613 > 140,025 > 177,042 > 206,882 > 224,334 > 232,932 > 239,489 > 240,630 > 240,717 - Doraemon 39 21,456 > x37,966 > x56,039 > x67,503 > 100,630 > 112,355 > 135,806 > 160,605 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 234,075 - Your Name. 38,344 > x49,944 > x63,544 > x94,764 > 106,232 > 119,366 > 141,586 > 164,820 > 175,477 > 224,737 > 228,840 - Avengers: Endgame 44,933 > x75,504 > 101,569 > 123,255 > 162,561 > 181,102 > 198,933 > 211,634 > 219,273 > 219,998 > 220,152 - Doraemon 38 34,327 > x45,706 > x65,083 > x88,540 > 103,380 > 132,669 > 151,634 > 161,136 > 194,354 > 217,019 > 219,122 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5 00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 217,273 - Detective Conan 19 34,674 > x58,364 > x83,804 > 103,559 > 134,266 > 153,207 > 172,514 > 189,625 > 203,933 > 212,672 > 214,354 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly 40,053 > x62,171 > x96,820 > 111,334 > 153,971 > 173,958 > 192,034 > 203,992 > 209,324 > 210,285 > 210,322 - Doraemon 37 36,072 > x57,885 > x76,836 > x95,227 > 114,580 > 143,048 > 163,262 > 169,357 > 189,252 > 207,335 > 207,464 - One Piece Film Gold 00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 115,537 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 188,552 > 000,000 > 205,221 - Finding Dory 25,102 > x34,335 > x58,977 > x81,932 > x96,106 > 139,004 > 153,796 > 159,983 > 185,950 > 200,159 > 203,669 - Fantastic Beasts 00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 201,580 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F 31,050 > x37,548 > x63,803 > x85,248 > x98,650 > 133,943 > 146,623 > 158,823 > 178,463 > 194,057 > 196,225 - Fantastic Beasts 2 37,661 > x56,398 > x91,407 > 105,975 > 141,439 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 186,605 > 190,834 > 191,406 > 191,678 - Doraemon 36 00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 175,504 - Jurassic World 24,205 > x30,620 > x55,077 > x69,208 > x76,381 > 101,395 > 119,219 > 130,201 > 145,917 > 159,879 > 163,731 - Spider-Man: Far From Home Impressive. 3rd highest start behind Yo-Kai Watch 2 (but that movie was only watched by children and slowed down massively after 5 pm) and DC 23. To be fair, keep in mind that Toho cinemas have lower ticket prices today boosting admissions a bit.
  5. NA is not a single territory though. Canada is about 10% of NA population, so depending on how TFA performed in the US relative to Canada Wolf Warrior 2 could actually be ahead in the singly territory department.
  6. Corpse : (C)Marvel Studios 2019Weekend Forecast (05/11-12)01 (02) ¥293,000,000 ($2.7 million), -45%, ¥4,725,000,000 ($42.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK3 02 (03) ¥270,000,000 ($2.5 million), -41%, ¥1,410,000,000 ($12.9 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK2 03 (01) ¥247,000,000 ($2.3 million), -58%, ¥7,925,000,000 ($72.4 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK5 04 (04) ¥209,000,000 ($1.9 million), -52%, ¥3,950,000,000 ($35.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK4 05 (05) ¥x88,000,000 ($800,000), -54%, ¥1,750,000,000 ($15.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK406 (---) ¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥x55,000,000 ($500,000), Cheer Boys!! (Bandai Visual/Pony Canyon) NEW 07 (06) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -54%, ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) WK2 08 (07) ¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), -56%, ¥680,000,000 ($6.2 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) WK409 (---) ¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), I Want To See You (LDH Pictures) NEW 10 (11) ¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -38%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), Sound! Euphonium The Movie: Oath's Finale (Shochiku) WK4The post-Golden Week weekend is one of the worst in terms of drops and debuts, and given this year's GW was super-sized, this weekend will follow that tradition, but on steroids. Since Endgame is naturally frontloaded, it'll perhaps, surprisingly, have one of the better holds as a result of not having as far to fall after the holidays. It'll likely return to #1, and pre-sales suggest this as well. Detective Pikachu will also have one of the "better" holds this weekend as well since it was released on the tail-end of Golden Week, therefor it didn't burn as much demand before its opening. Detective Conan, however, was the strongest film over the Golden Week holiday frame, so it's going to suffer one of the biggest drops and will probably fall from #1. The bottom half of the Top 10 is a mess. There are a lot of limited and near-limited releases opening this weekend, and since holdovers in the bottom half of the Top 10 last week are going to see huge drops, the #6-10th positions could go to any of around ten or so films.
  7. Last year's overall total/total after GW multiplier was 1.4346. This year's movie had one extra day so its multiplier will probably be lower but even going with 1.30 puts it over $50m. So unless it really collapses it should manage it.
  8. Friday this year was a national holiday though. If you want to compare 3 day weekends you're better off looking at previous Pokemon movie tallies from Saturday to Monday since Pokemon always opens on a 3 day weekend (Marine Day weekend).
  9. Here's how it compares to the rest of the franchise : Pokemon Box-Office History (1998-):Opening Weekends:¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin (2008)¥672.5 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus - To a Conquering Spacetime (2009)¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 600,602 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Master of Illusions - Zoroark (2010)¥540.1 million ($6.7 million) / 515,905 - Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and the Black Hero - Zekrom/Victini and the White Hero - Reshiram (2011)¥516.2 million ($4.6 million) / 436,078 - Pokemon: I Choose You! (2017)¥515.2 million ($4.7 million) / 491,192 - Pokemon Advanced: Mew and the Wave Hero - Lucario (2005)¥509.1 million ($6.4 million) / 489,862 - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012) ¥501.4 million ($4.5 million) / 440,242 - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (2018)¥500.2 million ($4.6 million) / 475,462 - Pokemon Advanced: Deoxys - Sky-Splitting Visitor (2004)¥486.3 million ($5.0 million) / 464,839 - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)¥455.0 million ($4.1 million) / 350,000 - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (2019) *Estimate*¥450.2 million ($3.8 million) / 427,104 - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishing Star of Seven Nights (2003)¥416.4 million ($3.6 million) / 396,472 - Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea (2006)¥393.2 million ($3.9 million) / 360,190 - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (2014)¥384.1 million ($3.1 million) / 351,592 - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (2015)¥380.5 million ($3.1 million) / 354,328 - Pokemon: Celebi - A Timeless Encounter (2001)¥323.9 million ($3.0 million) / 289,971 - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (2016)¥292.6 million ($2.4 million) / 273,209 - Pokemon: Guardians of Altomare - Latias and Latios (2002) So it's on the lower end overall but if you take only the last 5 Pokemon movies (2014 to 2018) it's over 3 of them.
  10. Yes. Pokemon 21 had a 500 million yen 2 OW last year and a 840 million yen 3 day OW since it always opens on a 3 day holiday weekend, which is basically what Detective Pikachu will pull off. It's probably looking at a $25-30 million total if legs are similar and if it doesn't die off too fast in May/June which, post-Golden Week, are very weak months at the BO in Japan.
  11. Saturday, 05/04 (National Holiday - Greenery Day)¥290,000,000 ($2.6 million), +15%, ¥7,015,000,000 ($64.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 23¥285,000,000 ($2.5 million), -48%, ¥3,890,000,000 ($34.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 09¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($4.8 million), Detective Pikachu (Toho) Day 02¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), +19%, ¥3,090,000,000 ($27.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 16¥x90,000,000 ($805,000), +02%, ¥1,485,000,000 ($13.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 16¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), Kakegurui (Gaga) Day 02¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -13%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.6 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 16¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), Lupinranger VS Patranger VS Kyuranger (Toei Video Division) Day 02¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), +25%, ¥3,590,000,000 ($32.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 72¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), King of Prism: Shiny Seven Star IV (Avex Pictures) NEWNote: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.% changes versus same day last week.
  12. Corpse : Endgame is now the highest-grossing superhero film ever in the market, after the original Spider-Man trilogy, surpassing Infinity War on its ninth day in release. (ended up quoting myself instead of editing, is there no way to delete a post here ?)
  13. Corpse : Saturday, 05/04 (National Holiday - Greenery Day)¥290,000,000 ($2.6 million), +15%, ¥7,015,000,000 ($64.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 23¥285,000,000 ($2.5 million), -48%, ¥3,890,000,000 ($34.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 09¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($4.8 million), Detective Pikachu (Toho) Day 02¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), +19%, ¥3,090,000,000 ($27.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 16¥x90,000,000 ($805,000), +02%, ¥1,485,000,000 ($13.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 16¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), Kakegurui (Gaga) Day 02¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -13%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.6 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 16¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), Lupinranger VS Patranger VS Kyuranger (Toei Video Division) Day 02¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), +25%, ¥3,590,000,000 ($32.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 72¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), King of Prism: Shiny Seven Star IV (Avex Pictures) NEWNote: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.% changes versus same day last week.Upcoming: May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday) May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)
  14. It's looking to be about 20% (perhaps even 25%) ahead of last year's movie after the end of Golden Week. It's looking good for a 10 billion yen total imo, and it will be a guarantee in case they re-release it in 4D later down the line like last year's movie.
  15. I'm hoping Avatar keeps the WW crown if only because I don't want to see a sequel movie sit at the top of the rankings. I'd rather have an original movie.
  16. It will, just not as much as BATB.
  17. Detective Conan if they release it in 4D in a few months like they did with the previous movie. TLK and Aladdin, I don't think so. I think BATB only did so well because of Emma Watson and because it has a huge appeal to women, which make up the majority of movie goers in Japan. Weathering With You I would say is almost a lock. Frozen 2 as well, but that will count for 2020. Btw for those curious enough here were Corpse's forecast a few months ago : 01/18: Masquerade Hotel (¥3-5 billion)02/01: Mary Poppins Returns (¥3-5 billion)02/22: The Day's Organ (¥3-5 billion)03/01: Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (¥5-10 billion)03/08: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (¥3-5 billion)03/29: Dumbo (¥3-5 billion)04/12: Detective Conan: The First of Blue Sapphire (¥10 billion+)04/19: Kingdom (¥3-5 billion)04/26: Avengers: Endgame (¥3-5 billion)05/31: Godzilla: King of Monsters (¥3-5 billion)06/07: Aladdin (¥5-10 billion)07/12: Pokemon: Mewtwo's Counterattack Evolution (¥3-5 billion)07/12: Toy Story 4 (¥5-10 billion)07/19: Weathering With You (¥10 billion+)07/26: The Great War of Archimedes (¥3-5 billion)08/09: One Piece Film Stampede (¥5-10 billion)09/13: Kioku ni Gozaimasen (¥3-5 billion)12/27: Welcome Back, Tora-san! (¥3-5 billion)Release Dates TBD:May: Detective Pikachu (¥3-5 billion)Summer: The Secret Life of Pets 2 (¥5-10 billion)Summer: Men in Black International (¥3-5 billion)Fall: At the End of the Matinee (¥3-5 billion)TBA: The Lion King (¥5-10 billion)TBA: Spider-Man: Far From Home (¥3-5 billion)TBA: Frozen 2 (¥10 billion+)TBA: It: Chapter Two (¥3-5 billion)TBA: Star Wars: Episode IX (¥5-10 billion)
  18. Corpse : Super Golden Week, Daily Estimates (04/29-05/06)Monday, 04/29 (Showa Day)¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), 0, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 04¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), +291%, ¥5,060,000,000 ($45.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 18¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +165%, ¥1,805,000,000 ($16.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 11¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), +408%, ¥755,000,000 ($6.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 11¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +41%, ¥445,000,000 ($3.9 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 11¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +437%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 60¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +244%, ¥3,480,000,000 ($31.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 67¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($535,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 04¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($360,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 03Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.% changes versus same day last week.Upcoming: April 30th - National Holiday (Emperor Abdicates, Heisei Era Ends) May 1st - National Holiday (New Emperor Ascends, Reiwa Era Begins) May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays) May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday) May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday) May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday) May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday) AEG fell to 2nd place in admissions but keeps 1st place in gross.
  19. AED has already fallen behind Conan 23 on Monday. Down on Sunday despite Monday being a national holiday while Conan 23 is up 32%. It's actually the only film down compared to Sunday which was already down compared to Saturday (a rarity for Friday openers). Legs not looking very promising, as is standard for Marvel/DC movies. If Disney's $13M estimate holds, I think $50M will be in jeopardy.
  20. Still don't think it will top Avatar WW because its legs will be cut too short, but it's definitely giving it all its got.
  21. The movie plays disproportionately well in urban areas so the number of admissions we get in 2/3 of theaters will generally represent more than 2/3 of the movie's actual admissions. I'm expecting a 3 day total of around $15 million for a final total of $50 million or so.
  22. Saturday 9 am number : 29,155 admissions (up 113% on AIW) The fact that Saturday is down compared to Friday shows just how huge the Friday number was.
  23. 9 am update : 31,335 admissions (up 144%). It's done at 9 am what last year's movie did at noon on OD. 10 am update : 43,368 admissions (up 151%).
  24. Last year's movie's first update (at around 9 am local time) had 12,824 admissions in 70% of Japanese theaters. We'll get AEG's frst update in an hour or so.
  25. Should do $40 million or so in Japan, perhaps $45 million. Let's see if it actually debuts at #1 there this time (in admissions).
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