Cynosure

November 25, 2019

28 minutes ago, Olive said:

1.21m Adm

1.616b yen.

2 day

Damn it. It didn't beat Yôkai Watch.

November 24, 2019

Sunday will fall behind Saturday. It should still beat TS4's Sunday though, which is amazing considering TS4's Sunday was a national discount day.

November 23, 2019

It's a shame it slowed down so much in the evening but I guess it was to be expected given its target audience.

November 23, 2019

4 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Discussed this with Corpse last night, needs probably about 530k in usual locations to probably do ¥1B on Saturday. Regardless, ¥2b 3-day should be assured by this point.

Indeed. In fact if it increases enough on Sunday, it might just pull off a ¥2b 2-day.

November 23, 2019

Just passed 400k at the usual locations. Depending on multiplier it could be reaching 500k. 1 billion yen Saturday could actually be in play, depending on ticket price and how well it plays in other locations...

Corpse :

Quote

It probably wasn't quite that high, more like ¥325 million ($3.0 million) I'd say.

Saturday is going to be ~3x as much.

November 23, 2019

I'm a bit emotional since I registered here in the wake of Frozen's Japan box office run a few years ago. Just amazing numbers. 😍

September 28, 2019

A bit of an anecdote but Detective Conan recently became the third anime series to top $1 billion in gross after Doraemon and Pokemon:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_anime_films#Highest-grossing_anime_film_franchises_and_film_series

I expect Dragon Ball to join them in a few years. One Piece maybe as well in a very long time. Other series perhaps in the next century.

July 20, 2019

It has beaten TS4's Saturday. Obviously its Sunday won't be nearly as good, but all the movies above and including TS4 opened above 1 billion yen, so I'd say its chances are looking pretty decent.

July 15, 2019

BATB had Emma Watson who is huge in Japan thanks to the Harry Potter franchise. Not to mention the movie is more in line with Japan's traditional tastes (pretty looking princess, high appeal to women). I don't think TLK will do too bad, but I see it finishing below both Aladdin and BATB in the $50-60 territory or so.

July 14, 2019

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Sunday Ticket Sales

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL

62,188 - Toy Story 4

Previous Major Openers (Sunday Results) [2015-]:
63,218 > 100,404 > 146,337 > 189,450 > 244,143 > 286,739 > 328,954 > 352,722 > 390,334 > 410,796 > 415,451 - Detective Conan 23
47,152 > x77,663 > 117,569 > 150,789 > 196,456 > 222,491 > 257,516 > 290,708 > 332,949 > 357,826 > 357,985 - Detective Conan 22
44,969 > x79,673 > 106,581 > 141,399 > 176,107 > 202,263 > 237,924 > 263,064 > 301,101 > 328,708 > 328,862 - Detective Conan 21
43,544 > x56,945 > x94,864 > 121,147 > 137,712 > 176,895 > 211,513 > 233,287 > 266,175 > 310,627 > 316,396 - Jurassic World 2
68,068 > 121,410 > 140,214 > 175,159 > 212,303 > 239,912 > 275,001 > 284,050 > 301,372 > 303,414 > 303,414 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
48,646 > x66,915 > 109,572 > 132,453 > 146,053 > 201,672 > 223,094 > 237,267 > 266,239 > 285,738 > 288,800 - Code Blue
41,258 > x53,651 > 101,827 > 123,213 > 137,288 > 182,858 > 209,637 > 218,717 > 253,910 > 286,657 > 287,736 - Aladdin
41,505 > x60,776 > x92,279 > 118,040 > 147,909 > 183,527 > 203,203 > 226,105 > 255,277 > 282,340 > 282,386 - Detective Conan 20
58,188 > x70,602 > x85,503 > 130,437 > 138,471 > 165,576 > 206,251 > 215,799 > 245,092 > 274,998 > 275,491 - Star Wars VII
44,544 > x61,806 > x95,031 > 115,926 > 135,456 > 172,663 > 187,607 > 203,548 > 251,431 > 263,949 > 264,078 - Star Wars VIII
45,987 > x56,944 > x75,411 > x89,067 > 121,228 > 135,686 > 165,877 > 198,605 > 234,747 > 261,046 > 263,634 - Beauty and the Beast
49,893 > x78,100 > 116,613 > 140,025 > 177,042 > 206,882 > 224,334 > 232,932 > 239,489 > 240,630 > 240,717 - Doraemon 39
21,456 > x37,966 > x56,039 > x67,503 > 100,630 > 112,355 > 135,806 > 160,605 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 234,075 - Your Name.
38,344 > x49,944 > x63,544 > x94,764 > 106,232 > 119,366 > 141,586 > 164,820 > 175,477 > 224,737 > 228,840 - Avengers: Endgame
44,933 > x75,504 > 101,569 > 123,255 > 162,561 > 181,102 > 198,933 > 211,634 > 219,273 > 219,998 > 220,152 - Doraemon 38
34,327 > x45,706 > x65,083 > x88,540 > 103,380 > 132,669 > 151,634 > 161,136 > 194,354 > 217,019 > 219,122 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 217,273 - Detective Conan 19
34,674 > x58,364 > x83,804 > 103,559 > 134,266 > 153,207 > 172,514 > 189,625 > 203,933 > 212,672 > 214,354 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
40,053 > x62,171 > x96,820 > 111,334 > 153,971 > 173,958 > 192,034 > 203,992 > 209,324 > 210,285 > 210,322 - Doraemon 37
36,072 > x57,885 > x76,836 > x95,227 > 114,580 > 143,048 > 163,262 > 169,357 > 189,252 > 207,335 > 207,464 - One Piece Film Gold
00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 115,537 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 188,552 > 000,000 > 205,221 - Finding Dory
25,102 > x34,335 > x58,977 > x81,932 > x96,106 > 139,004 > 153,796 > 159,983 > 185,950 > 200,159 > 203,669 - Fantastic Beasts
00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 201,580 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
31,050 > x37,548 > x63,803 > x85,248 > x98,650 > 133,943 > 146,623 > 158,823 > 178,463 > 194,057 > 196,225 - Fantastic Beasts 2
37,661 > x56,398 > x91,407 > 105,975 > 141,439 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 186,605 > 190,834 > 191,406 > 191,678 - Doraemon 36
00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 175,504 - Jurassic World
24,205 > x30,620 > x55,077 > x69,208 > x76,381 > 101,395 > 119,219 > 130,201 > 145,917 > 159,879 > 163,731 - Spider-Man: Far From Home

Impressive. 3rd highest start behind Yo-Kai Watch 2 (but that movie was only watched by children and slowed down massively after 5 pm) and DC 23.

To be fair, keep in mind that Toho cinemas have lower ticket prices today boosting admissions a bit.

May 21, 2019

6 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

Avengers: Endgame is the 3rd and 10th highest grossing movie in a single territory

1: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (NA) - $936.7M

2: Wolf Warrior 2 (China) - $854.2M

3: Avengers: Endgame (NA) - $771.4M

4: Avatar (NA) - $760.5M

5: Black Panther (NA) - $700.1M

6: The Wandering Earth (China) - $691M

7: Avengers: Infinity War (NA) - $678.8M

8: Titanic (NA) - $659.4M

9: Jurassic World (NA) - $652.3M

10: Avengers: Endgame (China) - $626.1M

NA is not a single territory though. Canada is about 10% of NA population, so depending on how TFA performed in the US relative to Canada Wolf Warrior 2 could actually be ahead in the singly territory department.

May 11, 2019

Corpse :

(C)Marvel Studios 2019

Weekend Forecast (05/11-12)
01 (02) ¥293,000,000 ($2.7 million), -45%, ¥4,725,000,000 ($42.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK3
02 (03) ¥270,000,000 ($2.5 million), -41%, ¥1,410,000,000 ($12.9 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK2
03 (01) ¥247,000,000 ($2.3 million), -58%, ¥7,925,000,000 ($72.4 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK5
04 (04) ¥209,000,000 ($1.9 million), -52%, ¥3,950,000,000 ($35.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK4
05 (05) ¥x88,000,000 ($800,000), -54%, ¥1,750,000,000 ($15.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK4
06 (---) ¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥x55,000,000 ($500,000), Cheer Boys!! (Bandai Visual/Pony Canyon) NEW
07 (06) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -54%, ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) WK2
08 (07) ¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), -56%, ¥680,000,000 ($6.2 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) WK4
09 (---) ¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), I Want To See You (LDH Pictures) NEW
10 (11) ¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -38%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), Sound! Euphonium The Movie: Oath's Finale (Shochiku) WK4

The post-Golden Week weekend is one of the worst in terms of drops and debuts, and given this year's GW was super-sized, this weekend will follow that tradition, but on steroids.

Since Endgame is naturally frontloaded, it'll perhaps, surprisingly, have one of the better holds as a result of not having as far to fall after the holidays. It'll likely return to #1, and pre-sales suggest this as well. Detective Pikachu will also have one of the "better" holds this weekend as well since it was released on the tail-end of Golden Week, therefor it didn't burn as much demand before its opening. Detective Conan, however, was the strongest film over the Golden Week holiday frame, so it's going to suffer one of the biggest drops and will probably fall from #1.

The bottom half of the Top 10 is a mess. There are a lot of limited and near-limited releases opening this weekend, and since holdovers in the bottom half of the Top 10 last week are going to see huge drops, the #6-10th positions could go to any of around ten or so films.

May 7, 2019

Last year's overall total/total after GW multiplier was 1.4346. This year's movie had one extra day so its multiplier will probably be lower but even going with 1.30 puts it over $50m. So unless it really collapses it should manage it.

May 4, 2019

Corpse :

Endgame is now the highest-grossing superhero film ever in the market, after the original Spider-Man trilogy, surpassing Infinity War on its ninth day in release.

(ended up quoting myself instead of editing, is there no way to delete a post here ?)

May 4, 2019

Corpse :

Saturday, 05/04 (National Holiday - Greenery Day)
¥290,000,000 ($2.6 million), +15%, ¥7,015,000,000 ($64.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 23
¥285,000,000 ($2.5 million), -48%, ¥3,890,000,000 ($34.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 09
¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($4.8 million), Detective Pikachu (Toho) Day 02
¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), +19%, ¥3,090,000,000 ($27.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 16
¥x90,000,000 ($805,000), +02%, ¥1,485,000,000 ($13.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 16
¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), Kakegurui (Gaga) Day 02
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -13%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.6 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 16
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), Lupinranger VS Patranger VS Kyuranger (Toei Video Division) Day 02
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), +25%, ¥3,590,000,000 ($32.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 72
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), King of Prism: Shiny Seven Star IV (Avex Pictures) NEW

Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.

Upcoming:
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

May 4, 2019

It's looking to be about 20% (perhaps even 25%) ahead of last year's movie after the end of Golden Week. It's looking good for a 10 billion yen total imo, and it will be a guarantee in case they re-release it in 4D later down the line like last year's movie.

May 4, 2019

I'm hoping Avatar keeps the WW crown if only because I don't want to see a sequel movie sit at the top of the rankings. I'd rather have an original movie.

May 3, 2019

42 minutes ago, UserHN said:

You don't think Aladdin will have a huge appeal to women?

It will, just not as much as BATB.

May 3, 2019

21 hours ago, RealLyre said:

which movies do you think will hit ¥10B this year? (if any will).

at first I thought Endgame would do it but looks like it will only finish with ¥5B-¥6B.

the new Detective Conan movie could have a shot as it opened slightly bigger than Detective Conan Zero which made ¥9.1B last year.

Alice in Wonderland and Beauty and the Beast both did 10B+ (11.8B and 12.4B respectively) so Aladdin (!?) and Lion King could have a small shot at 10B. TLK more likely than Aladdin but The Jungle Book only did 2.3B few years ago so im not sure how TLK would do

I'm really rooting for Weathering With You (Tenki No Ko) to do well. Shinkai's last Film Your Name made 25B in a record breaking and historical run, and this one looks as beautiful as a Shinkai film can be. I'm not expecting it to do as well as Your Name cus that's crazy but it should do 10B+

There's also Frozen 2 (idk if it releases in Japan this year or in early next year like most Disney animated films but i'll assume it comes out in December like Ralph 2). Frozen 2 is almost locked for 10B+ it might even do 20B+. The first Frozen made 25.4B so I'm very curious how much will the sequel increase or decrease.

overall I hope Weathering With You comes out on top, we haven't had an anime movie at the top of the Japanese box office since 2016

Detective Conan if they release it in 4D in a few months like they did with the previous movie.

TLK and Aladdin, I don't think so. I think BATB only did so well because of Emma Watson and because it has a huge appeal to women, which make up the majority of movie goers in Japan.

Weathering With You I would say is almost a lock.

Frozen 2 as well, but that will count for 2020.

Btw for those curious enough here were Corpse's forecast a few months ago :

01/18: Masquerade Hotel (¥3-5 billion)
02/01: Mary Poppins Returns (¥3-5 billion)
02/22: The Day's Organ (¥3-5 billion)
03/01: Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (¥5-10 billion)
03/08: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (¥3-5 billion)
03/29: Dumbo (¥3-5 billion)
04/12: Detective Conan: The First of Blue Sapphire (¥10 billion+)
04/19: Kingdom (¥3-5 billion)
04/26: Avengers: Endgame (¥3-5 billion)
05/31: Godzilla: King of Monsters (¥3-5 billion)
06/07: Aladdin (¥5-10 billion)
07/12: Pokemon: Mewtwo's Counterattack Evolution (¥3-5 billion)
07/12: Toy Story 4 (¥5-10 billion)
07/19: Weathering With You (¥10 billion+)
07/26: The Great War of Archimedes (¥3-5 billion)
08/09: One Piece Film Stampede (¥5-10 billion)
09/13: Kioku ni Gozaimasen (¥3-5 billion)
12/27: Welcome Back, Tora-san! (¥3-5 billion)

Release Dates TBD:
May: Detective Pikachu (¥3-5 billion)
Summer: The Secret Life of Pets 2 (¥5-10 billion)
Summer: Men in Black International (¥3-5 billion)
Fall: At the End of the Matinee (¥3-5 billion)
TBA: The Lion King (¥5-10 billion)
TBA: Spider-Man: Far From Home (¥3-5 billion)
TBA: Frozen 2 (¥10 billion+)
TBA: It: Chapter Two (¥3-5 billion)
TBA: Star Wars: Episode IX (¥5-10 billion)

April 29, 2019

Corpse :

Super Golden Week, Daily Estimates (04/29-05/06)

Monday, 04/29 (Showa Day)
¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), 0, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 04
¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), +291%, ¥5,060,000,000 ($45.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 18
¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +165%, ¥1,805,000,000 ($16.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 11
¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), +408%, ¥755,000,000 ($6.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 11
¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +41%, ¥445,000,000 ($3.9 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 11
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +437%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 60
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +244%, ¥3,480,000,000 ($31.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 67
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($535,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 04
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($360,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 03

Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.

Upcoming:
April 30th - National Holiday (Emperor Abdicates, Heisei Era Ends)
May 1st - National Holiday (New Emperor Ascends, Reiwa Era Begins)
May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

AEG fell to 2nd place in admissions but keeps 1st place in gross.

April 29, 2019

AED has already fallen behind Conan 23 on Monday. Down on Sunday despite Monday being a national holiday while Conan 23 is up 32%. It's actually the only film down compared to Sunday which was already down compared to Saturday (a rarity for Friday openers). Legs not looking very promising, as is standard for Marvel/DC movies. If Disney's $13M estimate holds, I think $50M will be in jeopardy.

April 27, 2019

Still don't think it will top Avatar WW because its legs will be cut too short, but it's definitely giving it all its got.

April 27, 2019

The movie plays disproportionately well in urban areas so the number of admissions we get in 2/3 of theaters will generally represent more than 2/3 of the movie's actual admissions. I'm expecting a 3 day total of around $15 million for a final total of $50 million or so.

April 27, 2019

Saturday 9 am number : 29,155 admissions (up 113% on AIW)

The fact that Saturday is down compared to Friday shows just how huge the Friday number was.

April 26, 2019

9 am update : 31,335 admissions (up 144%).

It's done at 9 am what last year's movie did at noon on OD.

10 am update : 43,368 admissions (up 151%).

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Posts posted by Cynosure

Avengers: Endgame is the 3rd and 10th highest grossing movie in a single territory

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