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Cynosure

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Posts posted by Cynosure

  1. The current trend is toward a stronger dollar, it's almost certain since the Federal Reserve will increase its rates for the first time in 7 years, making the US dollar a more attractive bet for investors and bondholders. So the exchange rates will be a problem next year, it won't be easy for Avengers 2 to increase over Avengers 1...

     

    In a way, it's kind of a good thing. The weak dollar with a rising China and all the 3D/IMAX stuff was starting to make a 1 billion gross a bit too easy. 

  2. Corpse :

     

    Weekend Estimates (12/27-28)

    165130_5.jpg

    01 (01) ¥547 million ($4.7 million), -66%, ¥3.61 billion ($30.9 million), Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Toho) Week 2
    02 (02) ¥454 million ($3.9 million), -24%, ¥2.05 billion ($17.1 million), Big Hero 6 (Disney) Week 2
    03 (03) ¥120 million ($1.5 million), -31%, ¥960 million ($8.2 million), Ao Haru Ride (Toho) Week 3
    04 (04) ¥85 million ($725,000), -46%, ¥400 million ($3.4 million), The Vancouver Asahi (Toho) Week 2
    05 (05) ¥83 million ($710,000), -43%, ¥890 million ($7.6 million), The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Warner Bros.) Week 3
    06 (06) ¥66 million ($565,000), -42%, ¥1.49 billion ($12.8 million), The Last: Naruto the Movie (Toho) Week 4
    07 (08) ¥58 million ($490,000), -28%, ¥1.45 billion ($12.5 million), Parasyte Part 1 (Toho) Week 5
    08 (07) ¥56 million ($480,000), -38%, ¥600 million ($5.2 million), Gone Girl (Fox) Week 3
    09 (--) ¥50 million ($425,000), 0, ¥50 million ($425,000), Princess Jellyfish (Asmik Ace) NEW
    10 (09) ¥28 million ($240,000), -49%, ¥390 million ($3.4 million), Aikatsu! The Movie (Toei) Week 3

    >Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! repeats atop the box-office, but it experiences a harsh second weekend drop. Its second weekend is, however, on par with the opening weekends for films in the Doraemon, Detective Conan, and formally, the Pokemon franchise, though.

    The film remains hard to project a final total for since it's unprecedented in many ways, but it looks good for at least ¥7 billion ($60/65 million) to me. And with over 90% of its audience revealed as Nursery/Elementary School children (0-6 years old) and their parents, there's only so high it can go.

    Its two week total is also greater than the totals for the majority of anime franchises (and a lot of other films, too). I'll have a list of the biggest totals after 2-weeks in release soon.

    >Big Hero 6 held very, very well. The chances of it exceeding the ¥5 billion (~$45 million) milestone are very good. So despite opening with about 1/3 ofYo-Kai Watch last weekend, it won't finish too far behind it and could possible contend with it. And it looks good to outgross every Disney Animation film, besides Frozen, and all but 4 Pixar films, too.

    >Princess Jellyfish got off to a very slow start. The live-action adaptation of the manga, where a son of a politician cross-dresses to avoid the political life and to be closer to his mother, helps a girl and her awkard female otaku roommates save their apartment building from redevelopment. Asmik Ace put a lot of marketing into this film for the holidays, so hopefully it goes on to have strong legs.

    Drops weren't impressive this weekend, but with New Year (Winter Break) beginning this week, January 1st to January 12th, the box-office is about to see a boom.
    • Like 4
  3. Corpse :

     

    Weekend Admissions (12/20-21)
    Usual Locations (~1/3 of the Market)


    513,688 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (NEW)
    169,973 - Big Hero 6 (NEW)

    44,733 (-23%) - Ao Haru Ride (Week 2)
    42,651 - The Vancouver Asahi (NEW)
    34,926 (-43%) - The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Week 2)
    33,056 (-48%) - The Last: Naruto the Movie (Week 3)
    27,776 (-34%) - Gone Girl (Week 2)
    23,552 (-42%) - Parasyte Part 1 (Week 4)
    21,345 (-62%) - Aikatsu! The Movie (Week 2)
    15,590 (-65%) - Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Gaim & Drive: Full Throttle (Week 2)

    >Yo-Kai Watch ended up selling 82% of its available weekend admissions at the usual locations.

    Most of the data is suggesting its weekend admissions are between 1.4-1.7 million. It's guaranteed to have opened higher than any local film before, with the record being 1.140 million admissions held by One Piece Film Z which beat Howl's Moving Castle's 8-year standing record of 1.104 million admissions two years ago.

    Yo-Kai Watch needs 1.487 million to break the All-Time Opening Weekend Record in Admissions. It's going to come down to how well it played at Aeon Cinemas over the weekend. They have more screens and theaters than Toho Cinema's operates now, and family/children films generally play better at Aeon than at Toho, so I'd say chances are pretty good that it's over 1.5 million admissions for the weekend, but it's not locked. *Suspense*

    Projecting a gross for its opening becomes more difficult. Using Pokemon's ticket prices as a comparison, it would have earned around ¥1.4-1.6 billion over the weekend. But if we use Doraemon, then it's more like ¥1.6-1.8 billion. The difference in the avg. ticket price of Pokemon and Doraemon isn't very much, but with the amount of admissions we're talking here, it greatly changes the estimated gross for Yo-Kai Watch.

    We'll know in the morning unless it's reported otherwise.

    >Big Hero 6 did very well in the face of Yo-Kai Watch. However it may or may not have benefited from sellouts, it's only about 20/25% less than Frozen's opening weekend based on the admissions from the usual locations.

    It's easier to project weekend figures for it with the smaller (though very impressive) numbers. Its weekend admissions should be between 425,000-475,000, for a weekend gross of about ¥550-625 million ($4.7-5.4 million). And during this time of year, that should easily net it close to ¥5 billion or more ($45 million+).

    I'll post some Weekend Estimates in a little bit.


    Just Toho Cinemas (more examples this way):

    Toho Cinemas Saturday/Weekend Admissions (Overall Weekend Admissions) [2013-]

    Opening Day/Weekend (Overall), OD/OW multiplier (OW/Overall Weekend multiplier)
    133,455/270,558 (?,???,???), x2.03 (x?.??) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (12/20/14)
    85,115/167,188 (747,451), x1.96 (x4.47) - The Wind Rises (07/20/13)
    68,575/159,180 (717,948), x2.32 (x4.51) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (09/13/14)
    64,398/133,273 (649,865), x2.07 (x4.88) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (04/19/14)
    62,250/120,489 (500,837), x1.94 (x4.16) - Maleficent (07/05/14)
    59,492/121,802 (614,969), x2.05 (x5.05) - Monsters University (07/06/13)
    59,192/123,606 (602,347), x2.09 (x4.87) - Frozen (03/15/14)
    51,800/108,724 (539,132), x2.10 (x4.96) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (12/07/13)
    51,181/114,523 (554,991), x2.24 (x4.84) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (08/09/14)
    50,274/88,560 (396,280), x1.76 (x4.47) - The Last: Naruto the Movie (12/06/14)
    46,570/94,181 (???,???), x2.02 (x?.??) - Big Hero 6 (12/20/14)
    43,669*/75,635 (322,162), x1.73 (x4.26) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (08/03/13)
    42,541/94,650 (530,544), x2.22 (x5.60) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (03/08/14)
    42,537/91,182 (429,918), x2.14 (x4.71) - The Eternal Zero (12/21/13)
    40,635/79,373 (339,048), x1.95 (x4.27) - Godzilla (07/26/14)
    40,414*/74,131 (363,451), x1.83 (x4.90) - Midsummer Formula (06/29/13)
    39,836/84,982 (365,356), x2.13 (x4.30) - Thermae Romae II (04/26/14)
    38,885/85,462* (464,839), x2.20 (x5.44) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (07/13/13)
    37,960/88,488* (393,522), x2.33 (x4.45) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 2 (11/30/13)
    37,829/78,485 (433,346), x2.08 (x5.52) - Rurouni Kenshin: The Great Kyoto Fire Arc (08/02/14)
    36,995/79,454 (386,994), x2.15 (x4.87) - The Kiyosu Conference (11/09/13)
    35,447/68,592 (330,385), x1.94 (x4.91) - Fast and Furious 6 (07/06/13)
    33,778/67,625 (360,190), x2.00 (x5.33) - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (07/19/14)
    33,358/76,023 (345,921), x2.28 (x4.55) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part 1 (11/02/13)
    32,618/64,093 (302,992), x1.96 (x4.73) - Transformers: Age of Extinction (08/09/14)

    30,000+/60,000+
    *Stage Greeting/Discount Day boost.
    • Like 2
  4. Mangas were far more popular in the 90s (the DB-Slam Dunk era was Jump's peak) as were most anime on tv (based on ratings). However I agree about anime movies becoming more popular, especially thanks to Miyazaki. What also happened is that Japanese movie production increased quite significantly and as with all other means of entertainment (animation, music, video games...), the Japanese tend to prefer their own stuff to what others have to offer.

  5. Pokémon was more interesting than Yokai Watch, Pokémon was the embodiment of travel, liberty and dreams...I found nothing of them in Yokai Watch which is much more generic...I like Japan but I don't understand them about that, BH6 deserved way more than that, it's really a shame..

     

    You were a kid back then. I loved Pokemon too and yet looking back at the anime it was always honestly quite crappy.

  6. Too bad the yen is so weak nowadays. Just 2 years ago it would have been $27.5 million.

     

    And looks like Toho have definitely found their 4th big annual animated franchise. It definitely won't pull in such openings eternally but in a few years it will probably end up being a Doraemon/Detective Conan/Pokemon pulling 3.5-4 billion every year which is nothing to sneer at.

  7. Corpse :

     

    Weekend Forecast (12/20-21)

    165739_2.jpg

    01 (--) ¥2.3 billion ($19.3 million), 0, ¥2.3 billion ($19.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: It's The Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Toho) NEW
    02 (--) ¥440 million ($3.7 million), 0, ¥440 million ($3.7 million), Big Hero 6 (Disney) NEW

    03 (--) ¥210 million ($1.8 million), 0, ¥210 million ($1.8 million), The Vancouver Asahi (Toho) NEW
    04 (01) ¥174 million ($1.5 million), -39%, ¥750 million ($6.5 million), The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Warner Bros.) Week 2
    05 (02) ¥165 million ($1.4 million), -32%, ¥740 million ($6.4 million), Ao Haru Ride (Toho) Week 2
    06 (03) ¥157 million ($1.3 million), -35%, ¥1.41 billion ($12.1 million), The Last: Naruto the Movie (Toho) Week 3
    07 (04) ¥112 million ($1.0 million), -45%, ¥450 million ($3.9 million), Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Gaim & Drive: Full Throttle (Toei) Week 2
    08 (05) ¥103 million ($0.89 million), -40%, ¥360 million ($3.1 million), Aikatsu! The Movie (Toei) Week 2
    09 (06) ¥94 million ($0.81 million), -38%, ¥1.37 billion ($11.8 million), Parasyte Part 1 (Toho) Week 4
    10 (07) ¥89 million ($0.77 million), -42%, ¥440 million ($3.8 million), Gone Girl (Fox) Week 2

    >Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan!, the first film in the massively popular Yo-Kai Watch multimedia franchise, is making a serious play at the setting a new All-Time Opening Weekend Record. It might even be hard to miss breaking the old record set by The Matrix Reloaded in 2003(!).

    I'd almost call it a lock for the All-Time Opening Weekend in Admissions at this point. 2 million admissions over the weekend sounds completely ridiculous when 1 million admissions is very rare (just 1 film has even done that since 2007), and no film has ever sold more than 1.5 million tickets on opening weekend.... but it's honestly looking very, very likely that Yo-Kai Watch will shatter this record.

    And Saturday and Sunday are so packed (literally every showtime across the country is selling out, I can't find any that hasn't yet), that some showtimes are nearly sold on Monday and Tuesday already. Maybe the film has ¥10 billion+ ($100 million) potential.

    >Big Hero 6 is being dwarfed, but its doing quite well all on its own. It's not going to be another Frozen, that's for sure, but it looks like it may compare to some of Pixar's efforts like Wall-E or Up.

    >The Vancouver Asahi, telling the story of the Japanese-Canadian baseball team formed in 1914, looks to be doing alright and is a solid alternative to any adults that wander into the madness of this weekend. If they aren't already taking their kids to see Yo-Kai Watch that is.

    • Like 5
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