Tuesday, May 5 is Children's Day, a national holiday. That means both Monday and Tuesday numbers will be inflated.
http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/south-korea/
These are truly nauseating numbers.
I think by the end of its run AoU will be leading Furious 7 in non-China OS by at least $100M (based on individual market comparison). That means it can make a bit less than $300M in China and will still most likely out-gross FF7 OS. Tough but possible. As for WW earnings, there is no question that it will out-gross FF7, cuz the NA total willbe at least $450M.
I'm honestly very impressed. Sorry for being so negative about it not reaching the 7M admission mark by Sunday. I hadn't realised how little films drop on Sunday. I guess 10M is pretty much a given now?
Now that I think about it, last weekend's numbers wouldn't add up. Really dunno. I find these numbers quite weird but since these numbers are official, I guess there's no room for doubt?
Also previews were much bigger but they started at 7PM. For Iron Man 3 they started at 9PM. This could also be a factor. I understand your worries, because Friday (w/o Thurs previews) made less than first Avengers, but it's a bit difficult to compare just cuz it had midnights, not Thursday previews.
AoU's second Friday overseas was ~$10M more than its first Friday. Being a holiday in many markets, it means that its Saturday will see a smaller increase, but I still believe $200M over the weekend is doable => $480M by Sunday + $210M from US and Canada => could near $700M.
Massively disappointing update at Deadline: estimate dropped from $94-97M to only $85M.
http://deadline.com/2015/05/avengers-age-of-ultron-thursday-box-office-1201419080/
Could miss $650M mark by Sunday.
Hopefully overseas grosses can save it.
"The first-day numbers for “Age of Ultron” look to come in between $89 million and $98 million"
http://variety.com/2015/film/news/avengers-sequel-huge-at-box-office-may-break-originals-record-1201485734/
It could reach $100M on its opening day, but anything above Potter's record would be spectacular.