Quigley

So will the 2014 box office reach $5B or not?

Big Hero 6's weekend total was $12.6M, according to actuals provided by Deadline. The overseas tally is $83M. http://deadline.com/2014/12/international-box-office-hobbit-five-armies-big-hero-6-pk-gone-with-the-bullets-results-1201332492/

By its first Sunday at the North American box office, Pirates of the Carribean 4 had earned $90.2M in NA and $260.4M in other countries. I know it's not an apples-to-apples comparison but I wanted to mention it anyway because of the similarity.

Most Hollywood films get what they deserve in Japan, unlike the huge amounts of money they unworthily earn elsewhere.

The film just crossed $350M ONA. Add $290 from NA and we have $640M. It might get to $370M from existing markets (due to holiday bump). Comparison with Catching Fire and Deahtly Hallows - Part 1 suggest it will reach $335M in NA. Total: $705M Add in $30M from China: $735M. Somewhere between Cap 2 and Days of Future Past in worldwide grosses for 2014.

I agree it won't be impressive but the holidays will help the total go higher than these numbers suggest.

Japan could be doing $60-70M. Tangled's $390M ONA total is looking more and more reachable every week.

At least this thread has been revived after Frozen died down in July.

This could surpass Frozen I guess

Do the have Christmas/New Year holidays now in China, will that help GWTB have a bigger total-to-opening ratio?

It is a bad, unfair, arbitrary, yet necessary, compromise.

From here: https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice

Actually, now that I think about it, I did make a mistake. We can't assume it will have the same legs as ROTK. So actually $250M in NA is at doubt, although possible. I still think that it can earn $750M overseas, but we'll find out from this weekend's numbers. By Sunday, it will be possible to make a more accurate prediction.

Ok everyone, BOTFA just made $24.4M on Wednesday. If it follows the trajectory of 'Return of the King' (which also opened on Wed, Dec 17 and was the finale of its series), 'Battle of the Five Armies' will make $267M. That means it needs $733M to cross $1 billion. This is pretty much guaranteed given the magnitude of its overseas debut last weekend. The question remains whether it can also surpass Transformers worlwide which I really want to happen just to make Michael Bay cry. Fingers crossed.

If it follows the trajectory of 'Return of the King' (which also opened on Wed, Dec 17 and was the finale of its series), 'Battle of the Five Armies' will make $267M. Not bad, but in no way impressive either.

Big Hero 6 estimates?

Any news on presales for Big Hero 6? What are the predictions?

Overall, I think $500M is the ultimate ceiling for overeseas markets. Probably lower than that, so $700M WW is out of the question, but it will earn more than Thor 2 ($644M) and probably >$650M.

Biggest ODs of all time please - in rubles?

Completely forgot the exchange rate issues. I think $740M is more likely.

According to China thread: March 1

At the current exchange rate, that's about $27-28M. That would have been $50M back in winter 2012-2013.

I think the finale factor will have a big effect just like it did for Twilight, Harry Potter, The Dark Knight Rises, regardless of critics ratings. $820M

Big Hero 6 opened in Thailand this past weekend with $1.3 million, the biggest opening ever for an animated film released by Disney (WDAS/Pixar). It has already surpassed the lifetime runs of Wreck-It Ralph and Tangled. Hopefully its impressive runs in the minor Asian markets (best Disney-released animated film in Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam) will be replicated in the bigger ones - China, Japan and South Korea - as well as all around the globe. http://deadline.com/2014/12/exodus-gods-and-kings-interstellar-mockingjay-paddington-international-box-office-results-1201313759/ Analysis/Predictions: If BH6 follows Wreck-It Ralph's trajectory from now on in North America, it will earn $214 million there. So it will need $405 million overseas in order to surpass How to Train Your Dragon 2 and claim the title of the biggest animated film of 2014 in worldwide grosses. That is of course an optimistic prediction. Tangled made $391 million overseas on the strength of European markets, to which BH6 may be less appealing. Hopefully, Asia - including Japan - and Latin America will compensate. There is defnitely evidence that they might, but no one can say for sure.

Agree with everything except Penguins. I'm glad it's flopping. DreamWorks should get the message that we want high-quality storytelling like Pixar. Not crappy pop culture references and reliance and on popular actors for the voicing cast (among many others).