Quigley

The thing is that since the Sunday increase (or minute decrease, whatever) was not inherent to the movie but was observed for all movies on that particular day, I guess the opening weekend is inflated compared to a normal weekend. So the opening-to-total multiplier could be lower than expected.

Yeah that was a typo. My mistake.

UPDATE: Oh, also, very importantly, it should finally break the record for the fastest film to reach $1B worlwide (currently 19 days and shared between Avatar, Harry Potter 7 - Part 2 and Avengers). My guess is 15-17 days.

The NA and OS predictions will both be slightly underestimated, as it turns out. It still won't surpass Star Wars though.

Interstellar has made $135.5M overseas. It will make about $20M in China this weekend (Wed and Thu are included in the $135.5M) and thus it only needs $45M this weekend from holdovers to reach $200M. That would be a 46% drop from last weekend. The extraordinary weekday numbers suggest that this is possible. I wonder whether the party will end next weekend with the Hunger Games release. $400M still looks tough for Interstellar but definitely not impossible.

But it still has a week until then. On the other hand, Russia tends to be very frontloaded. We'll see.

It is true that if you take the highest 50 films of all time overseas, all those that earned less than $50M in Japan have been released from 2009 and onwards. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/?pagenum=1&sort=osgross&order=DESC&p=.htm There are 18 films in the Top 50 released before 2009. All of them have earned more than $50M in Japan (and most are above $100M). So you can argue that Japan used to be more significant than it is now. I'd also like to point out that there are no DIsney films in the top 50 that have earned less than $50M in Japan (except Marvel's The Avengers and Iron Man 3, which don't even have the Disney logo - they were marketed as Paramount/Marvel films), but every other major studio (excluding Lionsgate) has at least two films in the Top 50 that earned (a lot) less than $50M in Japan. UPDATE: However, Catching Fire isn't in the Top 50 (it peaked at #57 and is curently at #67 - if you count that Guardians crossed $440M as per ScreenDaily), so it's difficult to describe its OS gross as huge. Solid, yes. But not huge.

Yes

Japan is extremely important. Pirates 4, Toy Story 3 and Alice in Wonderland wouldn't have earnd $1B if they only earned $50M in Japan ($50M is still a very good number). If a movie breaks out in Japan, it is destined for greatness (box office-wise, at least). Another obvious example is Frozen (alhough that one would've earned $1B even if it made zero money in Japan).

Now that there's a Fri number for Interstellar what would be a reasonable projection for the weekend?

Being the final instalment in the Middle Earth franchise (or legend, as the trailer says) I think this will have an increase over its predecessor (besides overseas audiences care a lot less about quality when it comes to sequels and China is expanding exponentially). $820M

Annoying ain't it? I mean, who cares if the same studio owns them. Disney owns Marvel as well but no one compared Big Hero 6 to Iron Man or the Avengers (ironically Big Hero 6 is a Marvel property). The reason for a comparison is because you want to remove a factor that suppossedly affects the box office performance. That factor could be genre, i.e. you can't compare a live-action film to an animated one because they appeal to different demographics. Or that factor may be marketing (so you compare the film to all films released by the same studio, which presumably applies the same marketing strategies). But animated Disney/Pixar films? That is just too much dissecting and almost feels as if the media outlets are trying to create a record out of nowhere.

Cannot express how hyped I am atm. I really want Mockingjay - Part 1 to reach $1B. $600M overseas is not a very big number anymore, although non-3D films have difficulties reaching it tbh. Adding up the opening weekends in all overseas countries for Catching Fire gives $153M. This year Mockingjay - Part 1 opens almost everywhere on the same weekend (I think except China and Japan). Together these two made about $13M for Catching Fire, so the rest made $140M. In order to reach at least $900M, Mockingjay - Part 1 needs $500M overseas. That would be 13.6% increase from CF ($440M overseas total). So a similar increase in opening weekend (without Japan and China) would result in $159M. So I think $160M is my threshold for the overseas opening weekend, which is also, not surprisingly, what I would want the film to make on its North American opening weekend.

Deadline and THR are very inaccurate very frequently.

Are we supposed to laugh at this? Because I did.

A total embarassment for Nolan (although overseas and the long run may save him). A definite win for Disney - although not Frozen-like immensely successful.

Documentary isn't what I meant by "science report" but, in any case, thank you.

I still don't get why it had to lead where it did. I agree Gravity is a space drama film. I just thought Interstellar was going to be more realistic too. It wasn't and, although that may not bother some people, it bothered me, because the marketing gave the impression of a film that would be a science report.

I'm totally fine when someone wants to make up a theory. But the marketing promised something that was scientifically accurate, not scientifically probable (and I still believe it was rather improbable). In a way, I was expecting something more realistic. The second half of the movie is everything but realistic... at least compared to reality as I have experienced it until now. The best description is that it was "not convincingly realistic".

Cuz you know, people casually pass through back holes and travel to other galaxies.

That film only lasts 1 hour 40 minutes.

I believe the story and characters were completely uninteresting. Visuals were ok but nothing special. It was pretending to be scientific but it is so inaccurate and exaggerated. If it were true, Nolan should be awarded a Nobel Prize in Physics. I would advise to spend those three hours differently, in a more worthwhile way.

Based on historical comparisons (Incredibles, Monsters Inc., Wreck-It Ralph), Big Hero 6 will cross $200M in North America. This is under the assumption that these films have similar audience reception/word-of-mouth which is quite reasonable to assume.

Based on historical comparisons (Incredibles, Monsters Inc., Wreck-It Ralph), Big Hero 6 will cross $200M in North America